Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks for DraftKings - STP 500

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STP 500

Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, VA
Track - .526 Oval Short Track
12° Banking in the Corners

If you haven't already, be sure to go check out my  DFS NASCAR Race Preview article for all the top trends and stats.

First thing to note from the weekend is that Qualifying was rained out on Friday and the starting order was set by owner's points(refer to my cheatsheet). No worries, however, for the rest of the weekend as the forecast calls for Sunny conditions and a high of 68° F. The qualifying set by points gives a big advantage to those drivers and teams who have started the year out hot, specifically Kyle Larson who will get the #1 pit stall this week. While some teams are loving the rainout, others will have some work to do on Sunday. The most notable at a disadvantage are Matt Kenseth(25th), Dale Jr(21st), Jimmie Johnson(17th) and AJ Allmendinger(30th). I mention it being a disadvantage as it is very hard to pass here at Martinsville and cars can go a lap down very fast with it being a short track. I would suggest not using more than two of these drivers who are starting back in the field in your lineups as the risk would be very high.

 

Drivers to Build Around

Kyle Busch
DraftKings - $10,300
Practice 1 - 2nd
Qualified - 10th
Practice 2 - 8th
Final Practice - 2nd

He is the defending champion of the spring race here at Martinsville and looks like one of the dominant cars again this year. Qualifying being canceled put the #18 back in the 10th starting position which is not that bad as it gives Kyle some place differential upside. He was 8th in second practice and improved to 2nd in final practice to go along with the fastest 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. The #18 M & M's Toyota is my pick to win!

 

 

Brad Keselowski
DraftKings - $9,500
Practice 1 - 13th
Qualified - 4th
Practice 2 - 1st
Final Practice - 4th

The #2 car of Brad Keselowski also looks like he could be one of the dominators this week. He was one of the drivers who benefited from the cancellation of qualifying and will start on the second row on Sunday in the fourth position. That is good news as he has a fast car. He was fastest in second practice and fourth in final practice. He won't only be looking to grab his first win here at Martinsville but also FORD's first win here since 2002.

 

 

Also Consider: Martin Truex Jr. (Starting 3rd and has 3rd best two-year average finish here)

 

 

Top Place Differential Value Plays

Jimmie Johnson
DraftKings - $10,600
Practice 1 - 19th
Qualified - 17th
Practice 2 - 7th
Final Practice - 19th

If anyone can make it through the field here at Martinsville and still have a chance at the grandfather clock it's Jimmie Johnson. Two of his nine wins here have come from outside the Top 15 starting positions and he has also picked up five other Top 10 after starting outside of 15th. It wasn't very positive seeing him finish 19th in final practice but Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson are the elite of the elite when it comes to in race changes to make the car better. I am hoping his high price plus poor start to the season help keep his ownership down. Either way ole seven-time is a gerat play this week.

 

 

 

A.J. Allmendinger
DraftKings - $8,300
Practice 1 - 21st
Qualified - 30th
Practice 2 - 5th
Final Practice - 17th

 

Like I mentioned above the place differential values are risky this week with passing being very difficult. What makes Allmendinger even riskier is the fact his salary took a huge $1,700 jump this week. Allmendinger started out as a road course racer and it is said that some of those skills translate over into short track racing. This would explain why Martinsville is one of his best tracks year after year. He finished 10th here in the Chase race last year and was the runner-up in this race to Kyle Busch who dominated. I definitely don't see him making into the top 10 this week but a finish in the 11th-20th spot would be enough value this week. For example, a 15th place finish would give him 15 place differential points and 29 finishing points for a total of 44, not counting fast laps or any laps led.

 

 

Bottom Tier Value Play

Cole Whitt
DraftKings - $5,100
Practice 1 - 26th
Qualified - 31st
Practice 2 - 16th
Final Practice - 15th

At near minimum price, Whitt makes an excellent punt play with some upside this week due to place differential. He will start 31st on Sunday and surprisingly showed a lot of speed in the final two practices on Saturday. He was 16th and 15th and while I don't see him finishing there, he has finished inside the Top 30 in five of his six career races here. At $5,100 I will take that all day!

 

 

 

For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE.

 

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation. Good Luck everyone!

 
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.