Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview - STP 500

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STP 500

Martinsville Speedway - Martinsville, VA
Track - .526 Oval Short Track
12° Banking in the Corners

Young gun Kyle Larson dominated the Auto Club 400 last weekend, leading 110 laps(38 fast laps) en route to his second career victory. He has cemented his elite status in the Cup series after opening the season 12th, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd and now this win. I predicted a championship in the next three years. Take the under!

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls on to Martinsville, Virginia this week for the 2017 season's first short track race. Martinsville Speedway is a half-mile track with 12° of banking in the corner. It is one of three short tracks on the circuit that come in under one mile in length. It is similar to Bristol in its half mile length but the banking is dramatically different creating much different racing). It can also be compared to Richmond as they have similar flat characteristics but Richmond is a .75 mile D-Shaped Oval. The "Paperclip" is a one of kind track that has been around since the beginning. In fact, it is the only track that has hosted a Cup race every year since 1949(series inception).

Qualifying will be extremely important this week so we can expect ALL drivers(yes I am talking to you Jimmie) to be out there late Friday afternoon to try and start up front. Passing can be tough and restarts will be key on Sunday and this puts much more emphasis on dominator and finishing points than it does on place differential.

Before getting into my early week picks, let's take a look at some of the top trends from Martinsville Speedway.

 

 

 Top 10 Track History at Martinsville (2 Year)

 

Kyle Busch is the defending race winner in the Spring after completely dominating with 355 laps led. He has also finished Top 5 in his other two races at Martinsville Speedway over the last two years(missed Sping '15 race due to a broken leg). The most consistent driver here at Martinsville over the past two years has been Martin Truex Jr. despite not recording a Top 5 finish. He does have three Top 10's and an 18th place finish with 197 laps led. Joey Logano has led the most laps over the past two years but finished 37th in 2015 after he got wrecked by Matt Kenseth in a revenge game. That skews his average finish a bit but sure was entertaining.

 

 

 

Top 10 Track History at Martinsville (Career)

 

No surpsrises here. Jimmie Johnson has absolutely dominated Martinsville over his career with nine wins, tied for third most all-time behind Richard Petty(15) and Darrell Waltrip(11). Equally as impressive is his 24 Top 10 finishes in 30 races on a short track that is conducive to bumping and banging and wrecked cars. Right behind Jimmie on the career list is Denny Hamlin who has won here five times and finished inside the Top 10 on 17 occasions. Kurt Busch is the only other active driver with multiple wins(2) here at Martinsville but has a poor average finish(21.3) with just five Top 10's in 33 races.

 

 

 

Top 10 Short Track Track History (2 Year)

I won't be weighing short track history very high this week as all three tracks are very different. One thing of note about this list is the fact there are no young guys on the list. Might be a great week to jump on some of these veterans, especially the ones who have had slow starts as they will most likely be low owned in tournament formats.

 

 

 

Top 10 Current Form (Last 6 Races)

I pull the data from DriverAverages.com and for current form they look back at the last six races to get a nice sample. We are now five races into the season so the sixth race is looking back at Homestead as well this week. The one thing that stands the most is, of course, Kyle Larson and his 3.5 average finish over those six races. Including the 2016 season finale at Homestead, he has four runner-up finishes, a 12th place at the Daytona 500 and his dominating win last week. Almost equally impressive has been Chase Elliott who hasn't finished outside the Top 15 since Kansas back in October.

 

 

 

Top 5 Biggest Salary Drops from Last Week

I added a new tab to my DFS NASCAR Trends Sheet which will be looking at drivers and their salary differential from week to week. Right at the top is Kevin Harvick who dropped a $1,000 this week after an uncharacteristic start to the season with just two To 10's through five races. He will make a nice GPP play at this point as some may avoid him as he finished 20th and 17th last year at Martinsville's two races. The other thing that stands out is Ryan Blaney's salary coming back down below $8K this week. This is a home game of sorts for Woods Brothers Racing, Ryan Blaney and crew chief, Jeremy Bullins.

 

 

 

Early Week Picks 

Kyle Busch ($10,300) - He won here last spring and is finally trending in the right direction after three disappointing finishes and fist fight to start the season. He comes into Martinsville following back to back Top 10 finishes at Phoenix and Auto Club Speedway. Depending on where Jimmie Johnson and #48 qualify this week, Kyle could be an excellent GPP pivot off the projected high owned seven-time champion.

 

Ryan Blaney ($7,700) - After two straight races with a salary in the $8K range, Blaney saw a $600 drop as he comes back to his home track. He grew up just 45 minutes(ish) away and drives the #21 for the Wood Brothers who started their legacy in this area so many years ago. To top it off, #21's crew chief is also from this area. Look for everyone involved in this team to push 110% for the win this week.

 

Denny Hamlin ($9,700) - Hamlin makes an excellent GPP play this week as his price took a big hike, up $1,200 from last week. He returns to a track where he has won five times in career but is coming in with some less than desirable form with just two Top 10 finishes through five races. The ownership will most definitely depend on qualifying but don't count out the JGR #11 this wekeend.

 

 

 

 

For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well. 

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.