Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet for 6/16/14

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Pitchers

Cole Hamels FanDuel 8800 DraftKings 11200 DraftStreet 19265
So here is your risk/reward play of the day. The Braves greatest weakness aligns perfectly with the their greatest strength and we are left staring at Hamels wondering whether to play him across the board or avoid him completely. On the one hand the Braves rank second in the league in team wOBA against lefties with a .351, coming in behind only the Rockies who play their games in an atmosphere akin to the moon. On the other hand, the Braves strike out the most in the league against lefties at a crazy 25.3% rate. What to do? On a short day, I'm playing him. Hamels has been solid this season K-ing more than a batter and inning and sporting an xFIP in the low 3's. There aren't many other guys out there today who can generate the swings and misses like Hamels. He could get blown up, but I think he presents your best chance at big points from the SP slot.

Julio Teheran FanDuel 8600 DraftKings 10000 DraftStreet 18197
On the other side of things is Teheran, a guy I'm willing to admit has vexed me all season. I was right on him basically once and that was him getting blown up in Colorado. So I really can't even take credit for that. The rest of the time I've just been waiting for him to be bad. He hasn't been, thanks in large part to a microscopic walk rate that really limits his downside because he doesn't throw a ton of extra pitches or extend innings. In fact, the walk rate helps to even out his lack of strikeouts. He has swing and miss stuff, but it isn't elite. The Phillies are among the bottom feeders of the league against righties. I just really wish Teheran and Hamels weren't pitching against each other.

Tyson Ross FanDuel 6700 DraftKings 8800 DraftStreet 16569
He's rather quietly putting together a super solid season. Ross is whiffing nearly a batter an inning to along with a 3.18 xFIP. Ross keeps the Babip low, which for some pitchers might be a skill, though I'm skeptical. What I'm more in tune with here is that he can rack up strikeouts at discounted prices. The Mariners rank 25th in the league in team wOBA against righties and Safeco helps in keeping runs off the board. Seems pretty safe today if you looking outside the Philly/ Brave game.

Consider Carlos Martinez if available

 

Catchers

Yadier Molina FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 4676
I guess the steroids are starting to wear off. Kidding! But seriously, Yadier's big problem this year is the drop in .ISO most likely thanks to an increased GB rate. When power goes, it typically doesn't make a dramatic return (unless pharmaceutically aided). But Yadier's salary has dropped to the breaking point I think. He's at punt prices for a catcher hitting near the middle of the order against a weak pitcher. I think you'll see him as huge percentage play in cash games. And tournaments as well though the lack of power scares me a little on that front.

John Jaso FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5435
I'm starting avoid Jaso a little because he gets pinch hit for late in games when the matchup isn't right. But on a short slate I think you need to take guys with the best splits and matchups and roll the dice that he gets all nine innings in. He makes all of his money hitting against righties with a 125 wRC+ against them this year. I don't even want to tell you what it is against lefties. Colby Lewis is what you think he is.

Consider Miguel Montero

 

First Basemen

David Ortiz FanDuel 3900 DraftKings 4800 DraftStreet 8840
Kevin Correia is a guy Ortiz can fix to fest on. Dude cannot strike anyone out and Papi is a guy who walks almost as much as he K's. Granted Correia doesn't walk anyone, content to let guys put the ball in play. Ortiz should get his bat on the ball, and even with a massive shift on him at all times, is playing at home where he can take advantage of the Monster. Have him as a top play today.

Joe Mauer FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 4656
Kendrys Morales FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5656
Recommended these guys yesterday at punt prices and they obliged going a combined 3-8 with a walk, rbi and a few runs scored. I'll take that from a guys coming in at the minimums. They aren't sexy plays at a typically stocked power position. But for the prices I think there is enough value and flexibility to get it done on a short day.

Consider Chris Davis

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 7339
Been burning me when I've picked him lately. But I've got a short memory when it comes to things like this. In DFS, this is where it helps to have a system to reference when putting in lineups. It helps remove the bias associated with guys when they don't work out on a given day. Fact is, Kinsler has hit lefties much better over the course of his career with a career 136 wRC+ against that side. This year's a little more even, but give it time. Or better yet, let's start it headed back in the right direction today against Jason Vargas.

Daniel Murphy FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 6333
A cash game play if there ever was one. He's facing Carlos Martinez making a spot start today. And though Martinez has been fine in his major league career from the pen, his only major league start last year didn't go so well. He let up four runs and didn't even go five innings. That's the smallest of small sample sizes so take it with a grain of salt. But Murphy is a guy near impossible to strike out (no power though) who should have his bat on the ball against a guy who's in the bullpen for a reason.

Strongly consider Dustin Pedroia

 

Shortstops

Everth Cabrera FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 2552
Our system like Everth today mostly because he is coming as cheap as they come. Of course the the Padres have been an offensive disaster this season. Everth being one of the culprits. His biggest issue is the K. Good news there, Chris Young doesn't strike anyone out. Which means Everth's chances of being on base increase. And here is where he gets an added bump. Chris Young is not good at holding runners on. He has a -21 rSB for his career, consistently coming in below average against this part of the game. When we are playing DFS on the margins this is where to start picking up some extra points. Speed is a great pull at SS and this is a cheap spot to grab it.

Jean Segura FanDuel 2600 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5195
Another guy I'm targeting on the speed front today. Segura's value is wrapped up in his legs. He needs to get on base in front of Braun and company, which has been an issue this season. his .278 OBP isn't getting the job done. Some of it is Babip as he's running about thirty points less than his career average. There's also been an increase in IFFB% which should regress over time. Add in that Brandon McCarthy is below average in letting guys steal and you have another speedster with upside today.

Consider Starlin Castro and high-priced option Hanley Ramirez

 

Third Basemen

Evan Longoria FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 5955
Is significantly better against lefties over his career and this year as well. Though Longoria has struggled mightily this season, it hasn't too much at the expense of what he's done against lefties. His 130 wRC+ against them this season is more than fine, a bit lower than his career averages against them. I think you can still completely target Longoria against lefties. His bigger problems are with righty pitching. Today he gets Chen, a fine enough pitcher but not someone I outright avoid.

Nick Castellanos FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3500 DraftStreet 4397
This guy is just so, so much better against lefty pitching that I want him in at punt prices every time one is on the mound against the Tigers. This season Castellanos has an OPS close to 1K and a wRC+ over 150 against lefties. These are adding to his career averages that show an inclination toward this side of the split. Great play at a low cost today.

Strongly consider Adrian Beltre though you'll have to pay

 

Outfielders

Alex Rios FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 6339
Rios is the top OF play for my money today and will be making his way into many of my lineups regardless of format. He completely crushes lefties and has one of the most extreme splits you'll see from an everyday player. Over the last year his .980 OPS is nearly .300 points higher than what he does against righties. Even with Drew Pomeranz showing flashes of solid stuff, I'm willing to buy Rios just on how dominant he is against southpaws. The price is more than fair everywhere and I think you should have some exposure to those splits.

Coco Crisp FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6834
He's getting back into the the swing of things (get it?) and hitting at the top of the order against a guy like Colby Lewis is going to present certain advantages like getting on base, scoring runs and basically doing all the things you'd expect against a guy who blows. Crisp's sorta-power/speed combination offers decent upside with a high floor, perfect for cash games.

Scott Van Slyke FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 4429
Primarily plays against lefties, and when he does, he's been destroying them. Now, temper the excitement some as the 35% Hr/FB rate surely isn't sustainable. So he isn't a guarantee for a home run against Matzek or anything. But the upside is there for sure. Expect to see some regression from Van Slyke in term of power against lefties, but I think you can still play him against a guy who, outside of a crazy outing against a Braves team that refused to take a pitch, seemed like a career minor leaguer.

Desmond Jennings FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5736
He's above average against lefties and his splits really favor hitting against that side. Jennings has a 116 wRC+ against them this year (a fine number considering his prices) and the speed should play today.

Matt Holliday FanDuel 3100 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 5679
Our system likes him but he might be cooked.

Consider Austin Jackson and whatever lefty bat starts in the OF against Kevin Correia

 

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