Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/31/16

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Point Guard

Russell Westbrook FD - $12000 DK - $12500
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 57.72 DK - 61.42

This slate is somewhat small, but has plenty of options to spend up on. There is also plenty of value, so scores should be relatively high for a 5 game slate. Westbrook is insanely expensive, but you can afford him if you are willing to take a few more risks. First of all, you will probably have to fade Harden, Giannis and Lebron. You can make it happen, but the value is just not reliable. The Clippers are a mess at guard right now, and as of writing this, I expect Chris Paul to miss the game. That would leave Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton to cover Westbrook. Neither of which stand a chance, and Westbrook will be able to demolish both of them. With all of that being said, Russell Westbrook is having one of the best seasons of all time and is in a game that should stay close and be high scoring. He has a 60 fantasy point floor and  a ceiling that cant be measured. You can deploy him in all formats, but will likely have my exposure in tournaments. The fade is also in play here, with 3 superstars that are cheaper and have a chance of having  huge game. If Westbrook has anything other than a dominant performance, that % of the field is wiped out. All in all, he is a great play, but in tournaments, can go a multitude of different ways.

Kemba Walker FD - $7900 DK - $7800
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 38.82 DK - 41.11

Kemba Walker has been consistent as of late, but not good enough for his price. His price has now dropped below 8k, and he gets a phenomenal match up here with the Cavs. He has the best match up on the team, as Kyrie will be forced to cover him. They could try to put Liggins on Walker, but I see no way Kyrie can cover Batum. Walker and the Hornets played the Cavs 3 times over the last 2 seasons, and Walker has topped 33 fantasy points in each of those contests. Walker has also seen his usage jump over 5% this year, which is  a huge amount over a game. The game will be played in cozy Charlotte, where Walker has averaged more than 7 FP per game compared to when on the road. All signs point to Walker carrying the load and if they want to stay close, he will have to. I like Kemba in ll formats, but think he is more of a cash game play. I will go either up or down in most of my tournaments, but that could leave some of the mid range guys under owned. Look for spots like that to take advantage of, and this could be one where a star in a great spot ends up under 15%.

Malcolm Brogdon FD - $3900 DK - $3900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.45 DK - 25.16

With Dellavedova out, Brogdon is just too cheap, and a lock to see 30 minutes. He had his worst possible game last night, and still didn't kill you in tournaments. He will only improve on last night, and will have a good opportunity to against the Bulls. The Bulls have ranked 19th against PG's, and 4th to last in terms of rebounds. Brogdon can fill up the stat sheet, and the Bulls are a team that gives up plenty of peripherals.  I think the upside is there as well, as he has already topped 32 fantasy points twice this year in under 30 minutes. If his shot is falling, he can get to 35 fantasy points and be a must have to win a tournament. He is super cheap, and will help you pay up for some guys that will make the difference. The opportunity cost is definitely something to consider, but you will have to make the "value or star" decision at each position. I will have Brogdon is almost all of my lineups, and I recommend you do the same.

Consider Austin Rivers if Chris Paul is out.

 

Shooting Guard

James Harden FD - $11300 DK - $11900
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 57.22 DK - 61.44

Harden is the man, and the main reason I had a successful night. he had a huge game against the Clippers, finishing with 30 points and his 7th triple double of the season. He is super locked in right now, and nobody can get in the way. I don't know who the Knicks will toss at Harden, but nobody has a chance. Courtney Lee will draw the assignment if he plays, and he has been one of the worst man to man defenders in the league this year. The Knicks are a decent team defense, but Harden will carve them up and come through with another huge game. the price is definitely crazy, but like Westbrook, he has the ability to have a game that puts you completely out of contention. For that reason, I will do my best to get Harden in my cash games and tournaments, and he will likely be my highest owned superstar of the night. He has played a ton lately. but the Rockets have no choice. They are the worst team in the league without him and rely on him to run every part of the offense. He is a safe bet for 50 with a ceiling over 80.

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $10500 DK - $9800
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 48.82 DK - 50.98

Antetokounmpo performs day in and day out, and does it mostly under the radar. He struggled last night, but still found a way to get over 40 fantasy points. His ceiling is unquestioned, sitting over 80 points if the game turns into a back and forth affair. The Bulls have had trouble with Antetokounmpo, allowing him to top 55 fantasy points in both of the game they played this year. They will likely start with Butler on him, but will give a lot of different guys a shot. Antetokounmpo will obviously have a huge advantage in one way or another against every guy, so it won't matter. He might have to shoot, or he might have to take it down low and post up. All fantasy points count the same, so it doesn't matter to me where he gets them from. He is more of a tournament option for me however, as I will do my best to get up to Harden in cash games. Antetokounmpo will be pretty highly owned, but all 4 superstars should be around the same %. You can play him in all formats, and is a safe bet to get you 45 here.

Rodney Hood FD - $4300 DK - $4700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 26.73 DK - 28.77

The price. Just look at it. He barely needs 20 fantasy points. This is my lock of the night, and I will have 100% exposure. He is a lock for 25 fantasy points, and see his upside close to 40 against the Suns. This is a guy who has scored 50 fantasy points, before, and is still just as talented. He was out with an illness for a while, and it looks like he is back to form now, shooting well in  his last game. The Suns play at an extremely fast pace, and we will be looking at a few Jazz players. This is a huge pace up game for the Jazz, and that is something you always want to take advantage of. The Jazz are priced like they are playing a super slow game, but will in fact be running up and down the court and exchanging open jumpers. Hod sets up well for this game and I will be going all in.

Small Forward

LeBron James FD - $10300 DK - $10400
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 50.12 DK - 53.46

LeBron James is one of 4 superstars that are available tonight, and you have to consider him. James did have an emotional game 2 nights ago against the Celtics, but rested less than a week ago, so should have pretty fresh legs. Michael-Kidd Gilchrist is a great defender, but it really doesn't matter. James is the most match up proof player in the world and can score fantasy points in many different ways. James is the cheapest of all 4 superstars, but is just as consistent. He will play minutes, have the ball in his hands and get you at least 45 fanatsy points His 70 point upside is still there, and he will flash it a few times this season. He is a terrific cash game play, but I don't like him as much in tournaments. I will look to Harden, Antetokounmpo and Westbrook more in tournaments.

Gordon Hayward FD - $7900 DK - $8000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.23 DK - 39.7

Hayward is the best player on the Jazz, and everyone knows that. They feed him the ball, and he finds a way to score fantasy points. Whether he distributes, takes it himself or pulls up, he will generally give you a positive outcome. Like I mentioned, the Suns play really fast and that will help Gallinari. i could see some pointing to the defense of T.J. Warren, but I am not concerned. He has been unsteady lately and a multitude of forwards have had big games on him. Hayward is a really talented offensive player, and has plenty of moves to score. With the pace up match up and fair price around the industry, I will have a lot of Hayward. He can be used in both formats, as his floor is around 30 and sometimes flashes that 60 point floor every so often. I don't expect that tomorrow, but maybe some New Years Eve magic!

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist FD - $4700 DK - $4600
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 24.01 DK - 25

With the Hornets facing off with the Cavs, MKG will be forced o be on the court. I expect the Hornets to have MKG out there every minute that LeBron is, and that should be a minimum of 36 minutes. He will also get some time with him off the court, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get close to 40 minutes. At his price around the industry, you have to consider anyone at  that price that will play those minutes, let alone a guy as talented as Kidd-Gilchrist. The downside to the match up is LeBron maybe covering him. Hopefully, LeBron switches on to Batum as he is more of n offensive presence, But we have no history to go off of due to injuries when these teams played in the past. Either way, I don't really care. MKG doesn't need points to score, and will have plenty of opportunities to rack up his peripherals, he will get his 3 or 4 layups, but his upside doesn't come there. You can target him in all formats, and I highly doubt he will be the reason you lose. This is a very similar play as Hood for me, and I will be all over both.

Power Forward

Kevin Love FD - $8500 DK - $8700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.54 DK - 42.17

Love has really stepped it up this year, and has been super consistent as well. Love has been good against the Hornets, averaging a double double over the past 2 seasons. He is a much better player than he was in those games, and I look for him to be a guy that is very reliable in cash games. LeBron loves to get him the ball, and he has no fear of shooting, rightfully so. He has also been rebounding like his old self, and this is a team that severely lacks interior difference makers. Love has the opportunity to have a big game here, and his price is perfectly fine. I am not sure he is my favorite tournaments, but that's only because I think there are a few other guys with big ceilings, but they aren't nearly as safe as Love. To sum it up, you can play Love everyhere, but he will be highly owned, and his ceiling isn't insane.

Kristaps Porzingis FD - $7700 DK - $7200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.06 DK - 39.15

Porzingis went head to head with Anthony Davis last night and had a really nice game. He almost matched Davis, and looked like he belonged against him. He take son a power forward in Ryan Anderson tonight that lacks both height and strength. Porzingis should be able to bully him around, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge game out of Porzingis. The Rockets also give up a ton of open shots, which is mostly due to there high offensive pace and willingness to shoot early in the shot clock. This is a big pace up game for the Knicks, and Porzingis will certainly take advantage. He can be used in all formats, but I prefer him in tournaments. His price is pretty fair, and will need to get you around 40 to hit value in cash game. That seems very possible against the Rockets.

Taj Gibson FD - $4900 DK - $4700
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 25.87 DK - 26.81

Taj Gibson is like David West of 2014. He is going to get you his 22, and then take a seat. He might get 4 more or 4 less, but very rarely outside of that range. This Bucks team should give him an opportunity to get towards his ceiling, as they are horrible at rebounding and don't have a low post defender. Gibson is a smart post player, and can take advantage of an unpolished defender. He will get his 28 minutes, and I think he can get 1 FP per minute  against this pitiful interior. He will scoop some offensive rebound as well, as the Bucks have ranked 2nd to last in that category. Gibson is a cash game play, and I think he is fine in tournaments if he is the last guy you plug in.

Center

Rudy Gobert FD - $7800 DK - $7300
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 32.47 DK - 34.1

Center is easily the weakest position on this slate, and leaves much to be desired. Gobert is here because he is the most talented guy and has a pretty good match up. The Suns aren't good against centers, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency in the paint. It's tough to ignore the game logs of Gobert, as it looks like he just puts out 40 points every night. I am willing to take that this position and have no problem paying that price. He may also get some extra points with the Suns being a team that loves to drive to the hoop. Some blocks are definitely in play, and they add up quickly. Gobert can be played everywhere, and is easily the guy who will score the most points at the position.  DeAndre Jordan is the only comparable guy, but I expect him to be missing Chris Paul, who he heavily relies on the be successful.

Montrezl Harrell FD - $4200 DK - $5000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 25.79 DK - 26.72
Joakim Noah FD - $4700 DK - $4600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 25.5 DK - 26.89

These 2 guys will face off, and are both products of the system. Harrell has the benefit of running pick and rolls with James Harden, which is one of the easier things to do. Noah gets to be the center of a team that relies on rebounding and big men passing, which forces him to be on the court. He will get his numbers tonight, and I think they will be stress free at his price. This game figures to be high scoring and competitive, which should leave to productive games from the centers. Both of these guys are excellent plays in all formats, but would prefer Noah in cash games and Harrell in tournaments.

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