Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/28/16

Oh what a night in the NBA. We've got a bunch of weak defensive teams matching up against each other plus some Ro-Lo on Bro-Lo brother action.

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Point Guards

John Wall FD - $9500 DK - $9500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 47.48 DK - 50.55
On a nightly basis, Wall has about as much fantasy upside as any point guard in the game (outside of guys whose names rhyme with Schmestbrook) and his minutes floor provides so much safety game in and game out. He'll consistently see run of 36+ and there's a great deal of safety in knowing his minutes are there. The Pacers are among the worst in the league at defending the opposing point guard this season, allowing around 5% more scoring to the position. Wall's on ball time is as high as you'll see and he's averaging a 23/10 on the year with both the scoring and assists up in the short term. The prices are on the move up but he's still a cash game value on a big slate.

Stephen Curry FD - $8400 DK - $8100
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 40.9 DK - 44.98
He struggled on Christmas Day against the Cavs and it's pretty clear Curry isn't going to have the same fantasy impact this year as we saw in the past. The Warriors are just a new team with Durant on the floor and Steph's seeing less production across the board because of it. But the price is also way down season-over-season and we can still play him in spots when the matchup's right. The Raptors are projected to keep the game close (ish) tonight and are below average at defending the opposing point guard. Steph's still got some heat check in him and he's been running bad from beyond the arc with a 40% 3PT% (down from 44% for career). I like his price a bit more on DraftKings where there's also the three point bonus.

Rajon Rondo FD - $5700 DK - $5900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.24 DK - 32.5
You don't love the 24 minutes he saw last game against the Pacers (an aforementioned bad team against point guards) and that has me a little on edge with Rondo. If he's falling out of favor with the staff then you're not looking at a safe play. But if it's an outlier and he's seeing minutes in the low-to-mid 30's then this is a fantastic value on the guy. He's averaging a 7/7/7/1.5 (steals) on the season which doesn't seem all that impressive until you add it up and see that it's paying 5x value on these prices in only 30 minutes of average run. If he exceeds the minutes then you can really hit some upside.

If Chris Paul sits again tonight then you can strongly consider Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton

Shooting Guards

C.J. McCollum FD - $7400 DK - $7600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.19 DK - 38.89
Allen Crabbe FD - $3600 DK - $3700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 19.38 DK - 21
It looks like Damian Lillard will sit again on today leaving most of the backcourt duties to CJ and Crabbe. Last game without Dame, the Blazers lost to the Raptors but these two saw the biggest boosts in either minutes or usage. McCollum put up 23 shots (his second most of the season) on his way to a 29/7/3 line. Controlling more of the point guard duties definitely helped his assist numbers and he'd be in line for similar production tonight against the Kings. Meanwhile, Crabbe saw a boost in minutes up to 35 and I think his 7/5/1 line is that absolute floor for him if this is his expected run. Pairing them together on FanDuel at shooting guard tonight could be one way to go.

Gary Harris FD - $4600 DK - $4900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 25.72 DK - 27.16
Harris has added some defensive stability to the Denver backcourt and with it has come rather safe minutes on a team where predicting rotations can be a completely maddening exercise. He's seeing a little north of 30 per night and the key for him is getting up the three ball. He doesn't have enormous upside, but Zach Lavine and the T-Wolves are about league average defending the shooting guard this season. Denver's expected to put up points here at about 110 implied and I think Mike Malone keeps Harris on the court enough to pay these lower tags. Two of his last four games have him with double digit looks from the field and if the minutes are there he should see the same tonight.

Strongly consider Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Pistons.

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler FD - $8500 DK - $8400
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 45.56 DK - 47.39
Butler's really struggled over the last couple of weeks, both from a fantasy and real basketball perspective. Some of that comes down to matchup with the Bulls going through a long stretch of playing slow/ defensively minded teams. But the Pacers aren't that kind of squad and Jimmy Buckets still couldn't get it going on the offense end. He'll get another shot tonight against the Nets who play at the fastest pace in the league with the worst defensive efficiency. That's the perfect combination and harkens back to the Sixers' and Lakers' days of yore when we could target just about anyone against the those teams. Butler's minutes are still trending about the highest in the league and I think he's gearing up for a breakout game right when the prices have stagnated.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist FD - $4700 DK - $4800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 26.02 DK - 27
With Marco Belinelli out the last two games, MKG's seen his minutes tick up to 33 and 35 in that time and should be in line again for big run with Marco already ruled out for tonight. He's averaged a 12/10/2/3 (blocks) in that time and been easily paying these prices. He'll be a chalk play tonight for sure considering the price has barely moved for this newish minutes opportunity. Orlando is a slower matchup but I don't think that effects MKG too terribly much considering he's still coming so much on the cheaper side.

T.J. Warren FD - $4700 DK - $4700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 25.28 DK - 26.22
Man do I ever hate playing guys coming off the bench, but Warren's now seen three games in a row of about 30 minutes or above while averaging a 17/5. He started off the season as the Suns' highest usage guy before going down to injury and sitting for about a month. They've eased him back into the rotation and because of that his price is about as low as you'll see it the rest of the season (I suspect). Even off the bench he's getting up double digit shots and his usage is likely helped by not having to chare as much court time with the Bledsoe/ Booker combination. This isn't a good matchup against the Spurs, but the price and minutes warrant a play here.

Power Forwards

Jon Leuer FD - $4900 DK - $5000
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 26.45 DK - 27.79
Stan Van Gundy made the starting switch two games ago to Leuer and I suspect it sticks going forward. He's looking at minutes over 30 (upwards of 33) and was only buzzed off last game because the Pistons were blowout out the Cavs. Leuer's able to get his shot up in this offense, averaging double digit looks over the last three with an average 12/6 line. He's still priced like a guy coming off the bench and cures a lot of ills at a typically weak power forward position.

Thaddeus Young FD - $5200 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 28.46
Thad's one of the rare power forward types who sees significant minutes on the somewhat regular. He'll get up to 35 and sometimes even sneak into the 37 range of late. He doesn't play a ton of defense, but Vegas doesn't see this game a defensively minded at all with a 213 over/under to open. Young's put up double digit shots in his last three games good for an average 16/8 line with a bunch of steals thrown in to boot. The Wiz are among the worst in the league at defending the opposing power forward, allowing 5% more scoring that league average. Young's still coming cheap on FanDuel where we need to roster two power forwards and he's likely a popular play tonight.

Markieff Morris FD - $5000 DK - $5100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 27.29
If you can stomach the ups and (many) downs of Markieff on a nightly basis then there's a ton of upside. He's played major minutes in two of the last three games which, for many players, should be the sign of coming stability in rotations. But this is 'Kieff we're talking about. That being said, He's averaging 11 shots per game in the short term, and his scoring ability cures a lot of the fouling/ minutes-buzzing ills he runs into. The price is a value if you think he can stay on the court against a Pacer team below average in scoring and rebounding to opposing power forwards.

Consider Gorgui Dieng

Centers

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $11000 DK - $11400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 52.62 DK - 55.58
Speaking of highly volatile players who can be tough to stomach in DFS, we get the rich man's version of that in Boogie. But I will say, some of that might be cooling off now as he's been consistent in the short term. He faces a Blazer team tonight who he absolutely dismantled last time around with a 55/14 line. That game also saw Boogie get ejected only to have the refs do a mea culpa and bring him back out on to the court for the last couple of minutes. It was a bizarre ending that still didn't over shadow just how much he dominated the Blazers. I'm not penciling him in for that kind of line again, but Portland's allowing about 10% more scoring than league average to the power forward/ center combo and they're also getting killed on the glass. Boogie could be in line for another big one tonight.

Robin Lopez FD - $4700 DK - $4800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.21 DK - 28.2
Ro-Lo vs. Bro-Lo! A matchup of Star Wars' loving brothers. Like I said with Jimmy Butler, the Nets are a horrific defensive team and this all brothers matchup won't likely feature a ton of locking the other down. Robin's price is way down in the short term thanks to a tough Bulls' schedule and his minutes deviating somewhat wildly. Most of that was game script and giving him low 30's run tonight seems pretty safe. He is a double-double threat in the right matchup and this is the right one. Bro-Lo and company are allowing 8% more scoring and 3% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers.

Strongly consider Marcin Gortat

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