Daily Fantasy Baseball News & Updates for FanDuel & DraftKings - 9/14/16

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

Personnel

• Josh Donaldson is out again today as he continues to deal with hip and thumb issues. Ryan Goins is playing 3B and hitting ninth.
• Russell Martin is getting the day off, while Dioner Navarro takes over behind the plate and hits sixth.
• Jhonny Peralta is on the bench again as Jedd Gyorko mans 3B and hits sixth, while Aledmys Diaz is at SS and hitting second.
• Mason Williams has been called up by the Yankees following an injury to Aaron Judge last night.
• Tyler Skaggs has been scratched from today's scheduled start due to a forearm issue. Jhoulys Chacin will be on the mound instead for the Angels.
• Yasiel Puig reportedly aggravated a shoulder injury in his first at bat last night. He didn't look comfortable, but remained in the game. His status going forward is uncertain.
• Eduardo Nunez missed his second straight game due to a back issue on Tuesday. He's considered day-to-day.
• Brandon Belt was out last night due to illness. There's been no update yet regarding his status for today's game.
• Andrelton Simmons has missed the last two games with a hand injury and is considered day-to-day for now.
• Steve Pearce was out last night after leaving Monday's game with a wrist injury. He's day-to-day until further notice, but it sounds like he could miss more time.
• Justin Morneau sat last night after a neck issue forced him out of Monday's game. He could be due to return tonight.
• Miguel Sano sat last night and could miss a couple more days due to a back issue.
• Wilmer Flores was out last night due to a neck issue and is considered day-to-day.
• Justin Upton missed last night's game with a calf issue. Consider him day-to-day for now.
• Zack Cozart sat for the third straight game last night with a knee injury. He's day-to-day until further notice.

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Tournament Stacks

Detroit Tigers

Vegas has the Tigers as the second-best offense on the board tonight, which tells us a couple of things: the dudes in the desert are pretty astute and they aren't scared off by the fact that the right-handed heavy Detroit lineup is facing a RHP. We're on the same page, partly because Detroit has really good hitters, partly because Tyler Duffey has dramatic reverse splits in his brief MLB career, and partly because Tyler Duffey just isn't that great. I mean, he's not awful, but we're not backing down from a 3.95 xFIP. Regarding the splits: They're always worth paying attention to, and it's important to know that reverse splits tend to even out over time and rarely remain over a large enough sample size. Nonetheless, it's significant when a young pitcher is getting absolutely blasted by guys from one side of the plate like Duffey is in 2016: .411 wOBA vs. righties, 2.61 HR/9. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank seventh in baseball in wRC+ against RHP, so we think you can roll them out with confidence in this one.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Here we are in the awkward position of recommending the Diamondbacks yet again. Thankfully, it's worked out pretty well, so we're not feeling that bad about it, but it might be a little unexpected tonight, because while the Diamondbacks have fared quite well against lefties this season, they haven't against righties. But, of course, most of those righties have been better than what we've seen out of Colorado rookie Jeff Hoffman so far. He's a former top-10 pick, so the pedigree is there, but the minor league track record isn't especially imposing, and he's been downright awful in four big-league starts. To wit: 17.1 IP, 22 hits, 20 runs (11 earned), 10 walks, 8 Ks, and five homers. So yeah, Arizona hasn't been very good against righties, but the matchup is just too good to pass up in a nice hitter's park like Chase Field.

Sneaky Pitcher

Marco Estrada

We went with a Blue Jays righty against the Rays last night and it turned out to be a dud. Actually, it was looking pretty good until a three-run bomb in the fifth inning (from Alexei Ramirez of all people) ruined what was looking like a solid start from Marcus Stroman. We'll be living dangerously again with Estrada, because home runs are always a threat in the Rogers Centre, and while the Rays whiff plenty (23.8% vs. RHP), they've got some guys with pop. Estrada's fly-ball tendencies would seem to amplify that risk, but he's made a decent career out of out-pitching his peripherals, largely due to the fact that he does a better-than-expected job of keeping those fly balls in the yard. He's also shown an uptick in strikeouts this year (8.25 per 9), and it never hurts to have a -175 favorite in your SP spot. One caveat here, though: DraftKings isn't including this game on any of its slates, which is a major bummer. You can get it on the all-day slate on FanDuel, but the lack of late swap there always makes those affairs extra risk-heavy. If you want to play Estrada, the ideal spot would be on a site that has this game AND late swap.

 

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Madison Bumgarner

With the number of high-caliber arms going today, it might be surprising to find the projection system this locked in on one guy, but honestly, it's not even close. Jon Lester's got a reasonably tough matchup, Clayton Kershaw will be dealing with the homer-inducing confines of Yankee Stadium, and while Jose Fernandez has a decent matchup with the Braves, nobody on the slate gets to face an offense as weak as the Padres in a park as nice as San Francisco's. While the Padres' 2016 numbers show an average offense against southpaws, no team has struck out as much in the split. It's also worth noting that Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton helped out quite a bit against LHP before departing, and their primary replacements are both lefties. That leaves San Diego with a lineup that's often made up of at least four left-handed bats, and Bumgarner dominates left-handed bats (career .249 wOBA, 2.61 xFIP). His underlying numbers haven't quite matched his work over the last two seasons, but there's still plenty to love in the results (10.61 Ks/9, 2.61 ERA).

Chris Owings

Ok. Not your typical “every lineup” kind of guy. So let’s dig in a bit and see what the algorithm sees. For one thing, we’ve got lots of variation in the optimal lineups today, with no hitter showing up across the board. Owings comes the closest, appearing in about 85 percent, and while the prices are favorable, the projection system isn’t just punting the position. For starters, we love that Owings has found a home in the two-hole over the last 10 days or so. The extra at-bat expectancy, not to mention the increased potential for run production is extremely valuable. Equally valuable is the opportunity to face Jeff Hoffman, who as we mentioned earlier, looks completely overmatched by big-league hitters right now. The park also plays a role, and while Owings' numbers aren't going to blow you away, he's running at a nice clip this season (17 steals in 388 PAs), and he's on a tear lately. We don't put a lot of stock in hot streaks, because they're wildly unpredictable, but at these prices and with everything else in Owings' favor tonight, that .371 wOBA over the last two weeks is just a bonus.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!