Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/1/16

 

You guys ready to get weird? We've got three whole games tonight, and a fourth for you lunatics who like to live dangerously on the all-day slates. No judgment. This should be fun. Let's go.

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PITCHER

Mike Foltynewicz FD 7000 DK 10000
Opponent - SD (Cosart) Park - @ATL
FD - 33.32 DK - 22.01

If you're playing on a site like DraftKings that allows late swaps, or if you're willing to take on the risk that comes with guessing at lineups, we think it might be worth it today to dip into an all-day slate and grab Foltynewicz. Even with a couple of more reputable arms going tonight, we've got him projected as the top scorer among pitchers and he can be had at decent prices. The rub is that he's a better value on FanDuel, but you'll be locked in to your lineup there. DraftKings has him priced up, because, like our algorithm, it sees a nice matchup with San Diego. After a mid-summer spell of competence, the Padres are back to being one of the softer offenses around. The season numbers are mostly meaningless considering the amount of roster turnover they've experienced, but for what it's worth, they're not good. If we drill down to the post-trade deadline stats, the sample is obviously much smaller, but tells the same sad tale. Last in wRC+, last in K%. Foltynewicz is nobody's idea of a sure thing, but the former first-round pick is making strides, albeit in fits and starts. He's flashed K-per-inning upside, and when he's around the plate (only one walk in his last two starts), he's usually not bad. I realize that's a pretty tepid endorsement, but we think he's shown enough to be a nice GPP option in the right matchup, and matchups don't get much better than the Padres right now.

Jacob deGrom FD 10000 DK 9000
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @NYM
FD - 31.21 DK - 20.78

Notice that DraftKings price? I know, right? Like we've mentioned, the DK pricing system is pretty sharp, but we think that's a bit low, and deGrom should be able to return nice value against the Marlins, even if he's less than dominant. He's coming off a pair of bad starts, but we're not overly concerned about that, and even though he's somewhat off last year's pace, there's still plenty to like about deGrom's 8.6 Ks/9 and 3.52 xFIP in 2016. Miami doesn't strike out a lot, so the upside is capped to some degree, but they're a middle-of-the-road offense otherwise against RHP, and with the Mets opening as a -195 favorite with a 7.5 total, we're feeling pretty good about deGrom's chances to keep the damage to a minimum tonight.

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CATCHER

Buster Posey FD 3500 DK 5300
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.81 DK - 8.35

As always, the Wrigley winds will determine our level of enthusiasm when we're picking hitters there, but Posey against a lefty is never a terrible decision. He owns a .400 career wOBA with a .230 ISO in the split, and though his 2016 numbers are down a tick in most categories, he's still about as reliable as it comes for production from the catcher spot. He'll be facing Mike Montgomery, who's a pretty solid dude and excels at coaxing ground balls and keeping it in the park. So while he's not the kind of guy we usually like to pick on, we've got a limited menu, folks. It's not quite Posey Or Punt, but it's pretty dang close.

Consider: Travis d'Arnaud

FIRST BASE

Anthony Rizzo FD 4100 DK 5100
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.21

While Jeff Samardzija carries more name value than his pitching counterpart in this matchup, we actually might be a little more comfortable taking hitters against him. That's partly because the Cubs have some awesome hitters, but also because Samardzija isn't all that imposing. He's in his second straight year with declining Ks (6.75 per 9 in 2016) and an xFIP north of 4.00. Meanwhile, Rizzo is an absolute beast. He's kept his K rate down in 15 percent range, which pairs nicely with a .395 wOBA and .257 ISO. He's not running as much this year, but whatever. He murders RHP (.410 wOBA, .273 ISO) and his spot in the heart of a dangerous Cubs lineup means the opportunities for run production are plentiful.

Wil Myers FD 3600 DK 3600
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.47

We actually like Freeman a hair more for raw points, but Myers' DraftKing discount gives him the edge here. As we talked about earlier, Foltynewicz has some tools that make him formidable, but so does Myers. At 25 years old, he's in the midst of the breaking season we've been waiting for since he was the top prospect in baseball back when he was a Royals farm hand. We'd like him quite a bit more against a lefty, but he's up to 23 homers and 24 steals on the year, and that power/speed combo gives him a ceiling worth paying for.

Consider: Freddie Freeman

SECOND BASE

Brian Dozier FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.34

Ok. Here's the deal. Jose Quintana shouldn't be able to do what he does. I mean, it's not that he profiles as a bad pitcher, but an 8 percent HR:FB ratio isn't supposed to happen. The league average is typically around 13 percent, and more or less everybody gravitates back toward that mean given enough time. Except Quintana. He just moves further away. He's giving up fewer ground balls than ever this year, and yet his HR/9 rate remains excellent at .84. All of the above could also be applied to his strand rate, which somehow keeps rising, and his BABIP, which is well below the league and his career averages at .282. So there's two ways you can look at all this. 1) Quintana is the exception and has a unique set of skills that defies decades of baseball data. Or 2) the regression monster lurks. The truth, as is its habit, is probably hiding somewhere in between. He's probably not as bad as his 4.22 xFIP and probably not as good as his 2.77 ERA. Which is a really long way to say that we think Dozier (.244 career ISO vs. LHP) stands a decent chance of putting one in the seats.

Dee Gordon FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - NYM (deGrom) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.55 DK - 8.23

We should probably consider it a victory that we made it this far into the column before the full-blown onset of short-slate blues. Ugh. Here goes. Dee Gordon is fast and can steal bases. He makes a respectable amount of contact. He hits leadoff. He's cheap on FanDuel. Those are all good things. And that's about all I've got.

Consider: Neil Walker, if he's back in the lineup. Update: Looks like Walker's been shelved for the year. Jace Peterson and Ben Zobrist are possibilities.

SHORTSTOP

Brandon Crawford FD 2600 DK 4100
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.37 DK - 6.54

You know, it's OK if you want to take a day off. There's probably something in your Netflix queue you've been meaning to get around to. Maybe crack a book, walk the dog, go for a hike, play in traffic or take up binge drinking. I don't know. Just spitballing here. Anyway, Crawford's obviously not a bad player. He's great defensively, and he more than pulls his weight on offense, even against lefties. But the matchup with Montgomery isn't a great one, and the bigger attraction here is the price on FanDuel.

Consider: Asdrubal Cabrera, Fandango

THIRD BASE

Kris Bryant FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.23

He has arrived, people. Even in this era when prospects seem to step into the bigs ready to roll more often than not, few acclimate as quickly and with as few hiccups as Bryant. In his sophomore season, he's leading the NL in homers and ranks among MLB's top five in wOBA and ISO. Strikeouts were the one weakness he displayed in his rookie season, and he's dropped those by nearly one-third this year. And while platoon splits take a crazy long time to stabilize, it's worth noting that he's mashing against pretty much everybody, including a .403 wOBA and .264 ISO against RHP in 2016.

Todd Frazier FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.18 DK - 7.22

Because home runs are cool, which is what I imagine Todd Frazier must be thinking every time he steps into the batter's box. He should probably be thinking more about line drives, because sending everything skyward is a big reason he's hitting .215 this year. Yeah, the BABIP is ridiculously low, but it's hard to find a hole when you're popping up in 19 percent of at bats. On the bright side, Frazier does have monster power (and decent wheels, when he gets on base), so there's plenty of upside. The bad news is that the busts outnumber the booms this year by a wide margin, but we're OK with using him in a few what-the-heck GPP lineups.

Consider: Trevor Plouffe

 

OUTFIELD

Miguel Sano FD 3200 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.09

More betting against the continued confounding success of Jose Quintana here. Obviously, he could keep it going, but on a slate this size, it's worth taking a couple of flyers on the chance that he doesn't, and the Twins have some righties that could definitely make him pay for any mistakes. And a mistake might be what it takes for Sano to get into one, because his prodigious power is surpassed only by his uncanny ability to airball. Through 745 career PAs, he's striking out 35 percent of the time, which is gross. But despite all that swinging and missing, he still owns a .372 career wOBA and .233 ISO against lefties, so when he gets a piece of it, he's doing damage.

Curtis Granderson FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.32

Jose Urena is probably the weakest pitcher on the slate, so it's a shame that we only have the Mets bats with which to attack him. They rank 21st in the league in wRC+ against RHP this season, and the addition of Jay Bruce hasn't helped much yet. Granderson is one of the few guys getting it done from the left side of the plate, even if it is in the kind of all-or-nothing fashion that can make him infuriating to roster. But he owns a decent walk rate against righties, which means his .228 ISO isn't the only thing you're paying for here.

Hunter Pence FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.6

After playing in 150 games in seven straight seasons, Pence is likely headed for his second consecutive year playing less than 100. And while his numbers have suffered some as injuries have taken their toll, he's still producing against lefties. His .359 wOBA and .247 ISO in the split this year reaffirms what we've always seen from 33-year-old, so while we have to pick our spots more carefully than we once did, he remains a solid play when the matchup is right. And while the fit isn't exactly a perfect one tonight, we like the value.

Consider: Jason Heyward

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