Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/31/16

Welcome back for another full day of daily fantasy baseball on this final day of August. We have a very balanced split slate today with six early and nine evening games. Both slates are very balanced with nice pitching options from elite to value plays. The Rockies continue their series with the Dodgers at home in Coors Field today and we all know how that affects almost every decision we make. Let's take a look at some top plays for both slates.

 

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PITCHER

Early Slate 

Justin Verlander FD 9800 DK 10800
Opponent - CHW (Sale) Park - @DET
FD - 36.93 DK - 24.34

Anytime you get two ace pitchers like Sale and Verlander facing off you can expect a low scoring affair. The projection system sides with Verlander as the Tigers come in as -120 home favorites in the days lowest projected Vegas total(7.5). Verlander has been dominant since the start of July going 7-1 with an elite K rate(9.67 K/9) and 3.79 xFIP building on his already impressive numbers in 2016. He will be in a nice spot on Wednesday as the White Sox rank 24th in wOBA(.305) and wRC+(87) against right handed pitching and have one of the worst road records in the American League. Verlander is safe in all formats today.
Evening Slate 

Corey Kluber FD 10800 DK 11300
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @CLE
FD - 41.23 DK - 26.78

Looking at the main slate tonight Kluber is the top option and it's not really close. The Indians are....wait for it.... -300 home favorites with the struggling Twins in town. Going into Tuesday night they have lost 11 straight games and currently trail the Indians in the 6th inning. They sit middle of the pack when looking at team wOBA against right handed pitching with the 11th highest K rate(21.6%). Kluber, who is having another excellent season, has been money in the second half with a 1.84 ERA, 3.79 xFIP and an elite 9.39 K/9 rate while holding the opposition to a below average 27% hard contact rate. He will be the chalk tonight but a great play in all formats. The key will be differentiating at other spots in your lineup.

 

 

Gio Gonzalez FD 8500 DK 8400
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 35.25 DK - 22.9

From a PTS/$ perspective Gio is one of the top pitchers on slate. He can't be trusted in cash games as he rarely goes deep into games and walks over three batters per nine innings but makes a viable GPP option that comes at a value price on both sites. He comes with some upside with an above average K rate(8.62 K/9) and has limited opponents to three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. The matchup gives him a slight boost tonight as well as the Phillies rank 29th in wOBA(.284) and 30th in wRC+(74) against left handed pitching.

CATCHER

Early Slate 

Yasmani Grandal FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.08

The projections usually favor the road team at Coors as they get a slight discount off the Rockies. Grandal is more of a GPP play as he has been very streak this year with a low .224 average but has tremendous power(21 HR) from the catcher position. The Rockies will toss Jeff Hoffman back to the mound for his third start of the season on Wednesday. He has been less than impressive in his first two starts allowing nine earned runs while striking out less than five batters per nine which has resulted in a poor 6.00 xFIP.

 

Chris Iannetta FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.01 DK - 6.85

If you are trying to fit Verlander with some of the other more popular Rockies or Dodgers Iannetta provides some nice punt value today. He comes with a low price tag on both sites and while he is not considered a good hitter(.213 average) he does have very strong splits vs. left handed pitching(.334 wOBA against LH & .254 wOBA against RH). This pick is more about what it gets you through the rest of your lineup while providing some upside. End of story.

 

 

Evening Slate 

Wilson Ramos FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.66

Ramos has been one of the best catchers in baseball this season with a .314/.362/.514 slash line with 20 home runs, 69 RBI and 54 runs scored. He has struggled a bit in August with the average(.262) but the power is still there with five home runs. Ramos has neutral splits when looking at average but carries more power against left handed pitching with a .403 wOBA, 152 wRC+ and incredible .311 Isolated Power. The matchup is one of the best on the slate as Adam Morgan has struggled mightily this season with a 4.64 xFIP and 18.5% HR/FB rate which is a direct result of him giving up a 36.2% hard contact rate.

FIRST BASE

Early Slate 

Adrian Gonzalez FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 14.21 DK - 10.79

Another Dodger player showing up as a top value at his position today. The price is very reasonable for run producer like AGon who gets a matchup in the best hitters park in baseball. He has seen his power numbers decrease this season with only 16 home runs but has added 75 RBI and has recorded his highest average(.296) since 2012 and highest OBP(.361) since 2011. Jeff Hoffman, making his 3rd career start, has struggled overall and has been even worse against left handed bats with a 6.57 xFIP while striking out less than two batters per nine. Yes please!! AGon is safe in all formats.

 

Evening Slate

Carlos Santana FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.54

He is currently going through a little funk going hitless in four straight games but gets a nice matchup this evening to turn it around. He's a switch hitter who has an average close to 50 points higher against left handed pitching for his career. Opposing pitcher Pat Dean shouldn't provide much resistance tonight. He has bounced around between the bullpen and rotation and will make his 2nd straight start tonight. If tonight is anything like his last two starts(13 ER allowed with only one strikeout) it may be his last. Look for the Indians to get to him early, getting into one of the leagues worst bullpens(ranked 25th with a 4.47 ERA).

 

Brandon Moss FD 3600 DK 5300
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.1

The price on moss has really taken a jump this month, especially on DraftKings where he is again over $5K tonight. The high price tag is a result of the August he is having with a .367 wOBA to go with eight home runs, 21 RBI and a 130 wRC+.  He has been hitting out of the three and four hole in the lineup for the majority of the second half and has not disappointed. For the season he has connected with a high 42% hard contact rate while the opposing pitcher, Matt Garza, has given up a 37% hard contact rate. That does not add up and presents a great spot for Moss on Wednesday night. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel but with the higher price tag on DraftKings he should be reserved for GPP only.

 

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate 

Jose Altuve FD 4100 DK 5000
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.95 DK - 11.22

It's pretty simple at second base in the early slate. Utley is a slightly better play on FanDuel at a $700 discount in a matchup at Coors but I will always side with Altuve at the same price on DraftKings. He is one of the safest plays in fantasy from a day to day basis with his elite combination of power(22 HR/88 RBI/93 runs) and speed(26 stolen bases) and always gets a boost when facing left handed pitching. Don't get me wrong he is a strong hitter against both sides of the plate but really cranks it up against southpaws with a .431 wOBA and 178 wRC+. He provides a great foundation for cash games and if you are fading the Coors game today, take a real close look at the Astros.

 

Evening Slate

Ryan Schimpf FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL (Wisler) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.01 DK - 6.91

Coming into Wednesday night Schimpf been one of the hottest players at in baseball, regardless of position, over the last 14 days. He has recorded an elite .343/.477/.886 slash line with four home runs, 9 RBI and 8 runs scored. He picked up another hit last night pushing his hit streak to a season high five games and has slowly made his way up form the eight hole to the five hole recently. The price is a little high on DraftKings tonight but at $3K on FanDuel he is safe in all formats.

 

 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Xander Bogaerts FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - TB (Smyly) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.88

There isn't many spots where you can get the Red Sox in a possible low ownership situation. Today could be one of those days, even in the early slate, as the Dodgers/Rockies game has a crazy high 12 projected Vegas total. While the park in Boston has nowhere near the impact of Coors the Red Sox have scored more runs(713) than any other team in baseball. Bogaerts is situated right in the middle of that monster lineup hitting in the two or three hole and has been getting on base at a nice .362 clip and has scored 91 runs. He also adds a nice balance of power(16 HR) and speed(13 stolen bases) which gives him a high floor for cash games while also providing some upside for tournaments.
Evening Slate

Addison Russell FD 2700 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (Vogelsong) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.4

When mining for value on FanDuel I love looking at the price differential between the two sites. DraftKings algorithms tend to adjust prices a lot faster than DraftKings. When I find player with as big of gap as Russell I start to take a deeper look at the numbers.  Russell doesn't have the safest of floors with a .243 average and .325 OBP for the season but has a ton of pop and provides value hitting out of the five hole for the Cubs. He has hit seven home runs in August pushing his season total to a career high 19 while adding 84 runs batted in. If you are starting Kluber tonight, shortstop is a great place to find value.

 

 

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Phelps) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.05 DK - 7.07

Another value play at shortstop tonight to help get to the chalky but elite Corey Kluber. He matches Russell's price on FanDuel at $2,700 but comes with a nice $700 discount on DraftKings making him a nice play from a PTS/$ perspective on both sites. While Cabrera is a much better hitter against southpaws his recent hot streak outweighs the splits at this point. Since returning from the disabled list on August 19th he is slashing .441/.459/.824 with three home runs, 9 RBI and a crazy 239 wRC+. I know, I know. It's a small sample size but until he cools off ride that train.

 

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate 

Alex Bregman FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - OAK (Detwiler) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.98

After an incredibly slow start(expected for a rookie) that saw him record just two hits in his first 42 at bats, Bregman has caught fire. Since August 6th(22 games) he has put up an elite .396 wOBA with five home runs, 19 RBI and 20 runs scored while hitting out of the two hole for the Astros. Even with a 24% K rate in that time he is still getting on base at a .369 clip in front of some powerful bats. The price is starting to get up there but the Astros are in a nice spot vs. Detwiler and Bregman has strong splits against left hand pitching early in his career with a .354 wOBA and 125 wRC+(.295 wOBA/83 wRC+ vs. RH pitching).

 

 

Evening Slate

Kris Bryant FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - PIT (Vogelsong) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.91 DK - 9.91

Bryant is having a monster season that is blowing his 2015 Rookie of the Year numbers out of the water. He has 35 home runs, 89 RBI and 109 runs scored to with an elite .305/.402/.587 slash line this season. He doesn't appear to be slowing down late in the season either as he has a crazy .581 wOBA and 272 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Ryan Vogelsong should be no match for the leading NL MVP candidate with his 4.60 xFIP since returning form the disabled list at the start of August.

 

 

David Freese FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - CHC (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.45 DK - 6.47

 

The Pirates are +150 dogs tonight but have a few value bats in their lineup that make great plays in daily fantasy. David Freese is one of these players. His best value comes on FanDuel where he is under $3K but is still viable on DraftKings after a big price jump from his last start. The jump in salary tonight has a lot to do with the matchup against Montgomery and Freese's splits against southpaws. Over 90 plate appearances this season he has a .415 wOBA, 194 wRC+ and 238 Isolated Power. The upside and projected low ownership make him a very sneaky GPP play.

 

OUTFIELD

Early Slate 

Joc Pederson FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.88
Josh Reddick FD 3800 DK 3200
Opponent - COL (Hoffman) Park - @COL
FD - 14.05 DK - 10.97

I know it's not pretty leading off the early slate OF with these two but there is a ton of merit in playing them in GPP's if they are in the starting lineup tomorrow. With the top of the order for the Dodgers projected to be very chalky today combined with the cold streaks, these two left handed hitters will be extremely low owned today. The upside comes as both have very strong splits against right handed pitching. Pederson is the play on FanDuel at a $500 discount and comes with the most upside with a  38% hard contact rate vs. right handed pitching. Reddick is best utilized on DraftKings where he comes with a $1,100 discount from Pederson. He has been awful since joining the Dodgers but has some upside in Coors Field against a pitcher who strikes out less than two left handed batters per nine innings while serving up a .333 average.

 

 

Evening Slate 

Jose Bautista FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.04 DK - 10.6
Michael Saunders FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Gallardo) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.82 DK - 9.09

The Jays bats are in a great spot tonight vs. Yovani Gallardo and the Orioles. For the season Gallardo has pitched to a 5.54 xFIP which comes as no surprise with a below average K rate(6.09 K/9) and extremely high walk rate(4.91 BB/9).

When Bautista returned from the disabled list last week he was inserted right back into his new role as the Jays leadoff hitter. No telling if Gibbons will keep him there but for now provides a ton of value with the opportunity to get extra at bats. He is getting on base at a .350 clip this season in large part to his extreme patience at the plate(15.8% BB rate) which gives him a fairly safe floor for cash games. He also comes with a ton of upside as he cemented himself as an elite power hitter with the most home runs(243) in the majors since the start of the 2010 season.

After making the All Star game for the first time by way of fan vote, Saunders struggled in the second half. He appears to have snapped out of the slump with hits in four straight and six of his last seven games including three doubles and two home runs. Despite the second half struggles he has managed to keep the OBP around .350 for the season and now has 21 home runs on the season. His best value would come if he is again hitting out of the five hole for the Jays.

 

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