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Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC 202 - 8/20/16
DFSR is proud to bring you Shaun Ihasz. He'll be providing MMA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. Give him a follow on Twitter @ShaunEyeHas
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Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?
VEGAS FAVORITE ($10,500+)
Tim Means ($10,900)
Vegas Line: -440
Finish Prop: -170
Career Record: 25-7-1
UFC Record: 7-4
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.03
Finishes: 17 KO / 4 Subs / 16 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO / 3 Subs
Last Time Out: W, 2nd Round KO - John Howard
Sabah Homasi is being thrown into the deep end for his UFC debut as he takes on Tim Means on short notice. I'll be looking to capitalize as Means price of $10,900 is reasonable considering his -440 odds to win and -170 odds to finish the fight inside the distance. Means is an active fighter at 4.03 significant strikes landed per minute and always looks for the finish, which has lead to an 84% stoppage rate in his wins. It's also worth noting that Homasi fought just two weeks ago. All signs point to a 100+ point outing for Means and he should be a safe play in all formats.
Prediction: Means - 1st Round TKO
MID-RANGE TARGET ($9,500-$10,400)
Cody Garbrandt ($10,300)
Vegas Line: -600
Finish Prop: -151
Career Record: 9-0
UFC Record: 4-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.92
Finishes: 8 KO / 6 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 1st Round KO - Thomas Almeida
Remember a few months ago when I picked against Garbrandt? I won't be making that mistake again. We all knew he was talented, it was a matter of timing...well I'm now convinced "No Love" has arrived. The Vegas money has flown towards Garbrandt at an unbelievable rate as he's now a -600 favorite and -151 to win via stoppage. Add that to his $10,300 salary and Garbrandt is the chalkiest of plays. But you can knock chalk in MMA when stoppages are the key to victory. Garbrandt has scary power and he'll be a staple in my cash lineups. A quick word of caution, Garbrandt's opponent is a veteran in Takeya Mizugaki and he's been finished just four times in 33 fights. It's not enough to scare me off Garbrandt but factoring that in along with what I expect to be really high ownership, I'll have limited exposure to "No Love" in my GPP lineups.
Prediction: Garbrandt - 3rd Round TKO
UPSET ALERT (UNDER $9,500)
Lorenz Larkin ($8,900)
Vegas Line: +120
Finish Prop: +350
Career Record: 17-5
UFC Record: 4-5
Record In Last 5: 3-2
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.43
Finishes: 10 KO / 7 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 KO
Last Time Out: W, Split Decision - Jorge Masvidal
I just don't like Neil Magny. I'll continue to pick against him because he doesn't finish fights unless you gas yourself to a hilarious extent like Hector Lombard. More than that, Magny took a beating in that fight, which should have been stopped in the first round. Larkin has shown flashes of knockout power and I definitely think he's worth a shot in GPP's at $8,900. Aside from the Main Event and probably Cerrone/Story, this should be the most active fight on the card. There's a lot of ways Larkin can win as he could win on points or if Magny hasn't recovered from the Lombard fight (as well as a very active two years in the cage) a quick KO isn't out of the question. Larkin is where I'll be turning to if I need save on salary to roster the more expensive fighters.
Prediction: Larkin - Unanimous Decision
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UFC 201
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image sources
- UFC_74_Respect_Bout: By Lee Brimelow (cropped from DSC_0029) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
