Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/12/16

Welcome back for another action packed day of daily fantasy baseball. With just one afternoon game on Friday we will turn our attention to the 14 game evening slate. If you are into pitching this is the night for you! We have several aces on the mound which should help spread the ownership when paying up for one them. Let's take a look at some of the top plays our system is spitting out for tomorrow's slate and remember to check out our other articles being published throughout the day leading up to lineup lock.

 

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PITCHER

Stephen Strasburg FD 11600 DK 12400
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 39.18 DK - 25.37

The Nationals ace pitcher is coming off his shortest outing of the season going just 4.2 against the Giants giving up four earned runs. He still ended up striking out eight batters pushing his elite K rate to 11.00 K/9 for the season. He is the top pick on Friday night and is in a great spot to get back on track vs. the Braves who rank dead last in wOBA(.293) and wRC+(81) against right handed pitching. The Nationals are early -260 home favorites in the lowest projected total(7.5) on the slate making Strasburg an elite play in all formats.

 

David Price FD 10200 DK 10300
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @BOS
FD - 40.89 DK - 26.79

I get it. He has burned almost everyone at least once this season leaving a bad taste in our mouths. For this reason I just can't trust him in cash games and for the same reason feel he is an elite GPP play tonight. The projection system is bullish on him as he sits as the top play from a raw points perspective. While it's been a frustrating year for Price who is pitching a 4.34 ERA and career high 14% HR/FB rate, he still holds an elite strikeout rate(9.19 K/9) and much better 3.28 xFIP. The Red Sox are the second biggest of favorites(-240) on the slate giving Price a a very nice win potential which is key on FanDuel.

 

Yu Darvish FD 9700 DK 11200
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 34.49 DK - 22.62

Darvish was brilliant in his last start as he made it through seven innings for the first time this season. He limited the Astros to just five hits and no earned while striking out eight batters. This is good news for those who roster him as the strikeout total should continue to climb as he holds an elite 12.31 K/9 rate in eight starts. While the matchup doesn't seem favorable as the Tigers rank 7th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching, they have been cold over the past seven days ranking 22nd and striking out over 20% of the time. Look for Darvish to continue to build up stamina presenting huge upside if he can get even deeper in to games. He is safe in all formats tonight.

CATCHER

Russell Martin FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - HOU (Musgrove) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.36

With Martin's price continuing to hover around the $3K mark on both sites he sits right near the top of the projections on a PTS/$ basis. His value actually gets a bump with Jose Baustista going back on the disabled list as he will be moved back into cleanup spot. While it's been a tough year for Martin with an ugly .230 average and 28% K rate things have been much better lately. Since July 1st he has been getting on base at .389 clip with a much improved 118 wRC+. He provides safety for cash games and if he is again hitting cleanup will also provide upside for tournaments.
Wilson Ramos FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.06

The catcher position is pretty weak tonight with all the great pitching options available but one names stands out over the rest. Whether you look at season long, past 7 or 14 day stats for catchers Ramos is right there at the top of the ranks. He comes into tonight with a seven game hit streak and has a .336/.384/.396 slash line over the past two weeks. He gets a nice matchup on Friday vs. Mike Foltynewicz who has struggled with a 4.98 xFIP and high 3.68 BB/9 rate over his last five starts.

 

FIRST BASE

David Ortiz FD 4300 DK 4700
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.19 DK - 10.68
Hanley Ramirez FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.53

The Red Sox are huge -240 favorites at home in Fenway with the slates highest overall total(9.5). You know what means? Lots of runs and in DFS we like those, at least from our offense. Before you dismiss Big Papi tonight consider that he has a depressed price on both sites due to the lefty/lefty matchup but he has actually been decent against southpaws this year with a .281 average. Patrick Corbin has been less than impressive this season as well with an average K rate(7.09 K/9) and awful walk rate(3.93 BB/9) to with a 4.43 xFIP.

Hanley got the night off on Thursday as he has gone hitless over his last five games but makes an elite GPP play tonight facing a southpaw. In close to 100 at bats vs. left handed pitching this season he has a .421 wOBA and 164 wRC+.

 

Kendrys Morales FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.37 DK - 7.9

If you are going to fade the two Red Sox bats at first base and wanna save some salary and pay up for pitching, take a look at Kendrys Morales tonight. He comes with an affordable price tag on both sites and is coming in hot with hits in three straight and four of his last five games. He gets a great matchup vs. one of the worst pitchers on the slate in Gibson who has a below average K rate(6.31 K/9), inflated walk rate(3.10 BB/9) and 4.31 xFIP on the season.

 

 

 

SECOND BASE

Dustin Pedroia FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.15

Get used to seeing the Red Sox in this article as the projection system is extremely bullish in this matchup vs. Patrick Corbin. Outside of Chase Utley Pedroia sits as the highest PTS/$ play at the position tonight which should not be ignored. While he has hit right handed pitching better this season he holds an average north of .300 for his career against southpaws. He has also been very consistent lately with a .319/.388/.528 slash line over the last three weeks. He is safe in all formats tonight.

 

Rougned Odor FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.3 DK - 9.15

In his third season in the majors Odor has taken another step forward with career highs almost across the board. He has brought his average up into the .280 range while increasing the power and stolen base totals. The one part of his game that has taken a hit is the walk rate that has dipped below 3% but that comes with the increased aggressiveness at the plate. He sits in the mid range on both sites and has a decent matchup vs. Sanchez who has been decent lately but still has a 4.64 xFIP and 14% HR/FB rate for the season.

 

 

Chase Utley FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.81

If you want to fade the top plays and want a safe low end value play at the position tonight consider Chase Utley. He is very affordable on both sites and has hit leadoff for the Dodgers for the majority of the season. He still has some pop with eight home runs this year and will get a chance to hit another vs. Ivan Nova who has given up along ball in five straight and 15 out of his last 16 starts.

 

 

SHORTSTOP

Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.17 DK - 10.57

Bogaerts has had a cold bat lately but comes in as one of the top plays at the position due to the matchup. There are definitely other options that you can trust for cash games but Bogaerts brings big upside against southpaws. For the season he has a .370 wOBA and 129 wRC+ with a K rate over 5% lower than against righties. While his price took a big jump on DraftKings due to the matchup it has remained under $K on FanDuel where he holds the best value tonight.

 

Trea Turner FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.6 DK - 9.22

Looking at the DraftKings projections for shortstop, Trea Turner sits right at the top of the PTS/$ column. He has hit leadoff for the Nats in all but two starts this season and has been very consistent slashing .286/.320/.480 with a 110 wRC+ in his first 24 games. The big difference in Turner's game this season over last has been the 30% increase in has hard contact rate. Despite the low overall total(7.5) the Nats are big home favorites and should see Turner lead the way at the top of the lineup.

 

Marcus Semien FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.57

If you are playing tournaments tonight and looking to go in a direction away from the herd I would suggest taking a shot with Semien. He is coming in red hot with hits in three straight and seven of his last eight games and has massive upside at a discount. For the season he has already set career highs in home runs(23), RBI(54) and wRC+(102). Semien has strong splits vs. left handed pitching and will go up against Ariel Miranda making his second major league start. He has struggled in his first two outings(one start, one relief appearance) giving up a home run in each.

 

THIRD BASE

Adrian Beltre FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.12

Even in his 19th season, the 37 year old Beltre continues to provide big offensive numbers. He is striking out less than all but one season throughout his career and is inching closer to getting back to the 20 home run plateau for the first time since 2013. Beltre stayed red hot last night picking up two more hits including his 19th home run in a 12-9 loss to the Rockies. Beltre comes into Friday with hits in five straight including four multi hit efforts. He is a safe option for cash games and comes with big upside for tournaments against Sanchez who can be prone to giving up the long ball.

 

Danny Valencia FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.5

It's like clockwork when the A's face left handed pitcher. You play Danny Valencia, no questions asked. He ranks 9th among all hitters against southpaws this season with a .441 wOBA, .273 Isolated Power and 185 wRC+. Pretty impressive numbers for a guy who sits in the second tier in pricing on both sites. His current cold stretch keeps me from wanting to roster him in cash games but the upside is enough to have heavy exposure in tournaments.

 

Alex Bregman FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.81

The rookie is starting to come around as he gets acclimated to the major leagues. After a very slow start he has picked up a hit in six straight and seven of his eight games with four doubles, six runs batted in and six runs scored. He has also shown patience at the plate with five walks in those eight games. While the price is a little rich on DraftKings he makes a near must play on FanDuel in the mid $2K range where he provides a ton of flexibility to pay up for pitching.

 

 

OUTFIELD

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @MIA
FD - 14.14 DK - 10.66
Marcell Ozuna FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.83

Whenever the Marlins face a left handed pitcher both Ozuna and Stanton should be at the top of your list at the OF position.

Stanton was held out of his last start due to hip tightness but made a pinch hit appearance late in the game so all signs indicate he will back in the lineup on Friday. Before that pinch hit appearance he has recorded a hit in five straight and six of his last seven games with two home runs and seven runs batted in. He is hitting lefties to the tune of a .402 wOBA, .317 ISO and 153 wRC+. He may not be the safest overall choice but he comes with more upside than any other player with his raw power.

Ozuna on the other hand can be trusted in all formats tonight as he has been consistent all season with a .285/.342/.490 slash line. If you think Stanton's numbers were good against lefties take a look at Ozuna's. He is currently sporting a .432 wOBA, .340 ISO and 173 wRC+ against left handed pitching in 2016. Get him in your lineup, especially on FanDuel at a low $3K price tag.

 

Michael Saunders FD 3200 DK 3400
Opponent - HOU (Musgrove) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.52

Saunders ranks as an elite play from a PTS/$ perspective tonight as his price continues to drop on both sites. I often compare DFS to the stock market in that you must buy low and sell high. Well, this is the time to buy low on the Jays slugger. He has spent the last two games hitting out of the seven hole but could very well be moved back up the lineup against a right handed pitcher. With Jose Bautista back on the disabled list manager John Gibbons will look to Saunders to help provide some offense as they try and lock down the American League East division. He is not safe for cash games but makes a huge upside play in GPP's that could be very low owned.
Brandon Guyer FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Skaggs) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.9

If it's rock bottom ownership you are seeking tonight take a shot with Brandon Guyer if he is in the lineup. He pinch hit and went 0 for 1 in his first game with the Indians and has recorded hits in three of four games since. So far in 2016 he has impressed getting on base at a .358 clip and has crushed southpaws. In 72 at bats this season he has a .463 wOBA, .236 ISO and 201 wRC+ vs. left handed pitching. Under $3K I would consider him in any format on FanDuel but would limit him to GPP only on DraftKings.

 

 

 

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