Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/3/16

Welcome back to a Hump Day edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. As usual, Wednesday is another split slate with three games in the early slate and 12 games on the main slate starting at 7:00 PM et. With the Rockies back at home after a road trip we have Coors decisions to make which changes things a little bit on a nightly basis when projecting ownership in tournaments. Let's dig in!

 

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PITCHER

Early Slate

Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13200
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 42.66 DK - 27.87

Max is the top pitcher on the slate today and it's not even close. If you want a piece of the action you will have to get in on the three game early slate or all day slate, which I only recommend on DraftKings with the late swap feature. While the Diamondbacks rank 1st overall in wOBA vs. left handed pitching, they have struggled against righties ranking 19th in wOBA with a 23.3% K rate(5th worst in Majors). Scherzer has been pitching at an elite level lately limiting opponents to one earned run or less in five of his last six starts with a 10.67 K/9 rate and 1.09 ERA. Home runs were the issue early in the year and in those last six starts he has only allowed  a 4.5% HR/FB rate. The park downgrade isn't great but I will take my shot with extremely high strikeout upside Scherzer brings to the table.

 

Evening Slate

Trevor Bauer FD 8000 DK 8100
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @CLE
FD - 36.03 DK - 23.56

Looking at the evening slate we find some value in the pitching which is excellent news with another series at Coors Field starting tonight. It starts with Trevor Bauer who has been pitching pretty good lately. Outside of being hit hard by the Orioles and Yankees in July, he has provided an excellent floor for cash games limiting opponents to three earned runs or less in eight of 10 starts with a 8.28 K/9 rate. If he can limit the walks which have hurt him this year(3.40 BB/9) he can also provide enough upside for tournaments. The Twins rank 18th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching with a 22% strikeout rate.

 
Michael Wacha FD 7300 DK 6000
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @CIN
FD - 30.9 DK - 20.25

If you are looking to load up on bats tonight you can easily fall in love with Michael Wacha tonight. He comes with an extremely low price tag, especially on DraftKings where he is just $6K. His below average walk rate(2.89 BB/9) is the only thing keeping him from being an elite play tonight. The walks raise the pitch count which limits the innings pitched and upside we are looking for. While he doesn't have the greatest upside the floor is pretty high at these prices and Wacha has limited opponents to three earned runs or less nine straight starts going 4-1 along the way. He faces the Reds tonight who ranks 25th in wOBA vs. right handed pitching with a 21.8% strikeout rate.

CATCHER

Early Slate

Willson Contreras FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.93

Looking at the early slate catchers there is only one option for me in cash games and it's Contreras. He comes with a big discount from Ramos and looks to be getting his stroke back. While writing this the Cubs are currently leading 3-0 and after moving Contreras up to 2nd in the lineup he has responded going 2 for 2 with a walk and a RBI. That is now hits in three straight games. If he gets another opportunity bear the top of the order he becomes a near must play in a matchup vs. Tom Koehler and his 4.85 xFIP.

 
Evening Slate

Buster Posey FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.23

On the late slate we can put our trust in Buster Posey who is still a bargain on both sites. He has seen the average drop below .300 for the first time since 2013 but the OBP(.363) and power stroke(12 HR) still remains. Posey has been very consistent lately slashing .357/.419/.429 over the last 10 days and while he lacks the upside for tournaments, makes a great cash game play tonight.

 

A.J. Ellis FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 9.66 DK - 7.51

Our first dip into the run producing machine that is Coors Field. Ellis provides some upside for tournaments tonight as he is a much better hitter against left handed pitching and will face rookie Tyler Anderson tonight. While Anderson has been impressive in his first nine starts with a 3.24 xFIP, the strikeout rate(7.67 K/9) is average and Coors catches up to the best of them. Ellis also gets a bump as Anderson has struggled much more against right handed hitters giving up a .333 wOBA and all four of the home runs he has given up.

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

Chris Carter FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Jackson) Park - @SD
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.17

Paying up for Rizzo is one option and if you want to save at the position, Chris Carter is the other option today. He is definitely not a safe pick that I would recommend for cash games as he strikes out over 33% of the time but has big upside for tournaments. Going into Tuesday's action he had hits in five of his last seven games with three home runs with five RBI and six runs scored. He gets a great matchup vs. Edwin Jackson tonight who has struggled since being moved into the rotation. In his first three starts he has only struck out eight while walking 10 batters with an ugly 5.85 xFIP.

 
Evening Slate

Albert Pujols FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.88 DK - 9.1

The projection system is in love with Pujols and his hot hitting tonight. He went in to Tuesday's action red hot with hits in four straight and seven of his last eight games including five multi hit efforts. You aren't going to get the average from Pujols  that you once did but he is still providing a ton of power upside with 20 home runs and 81 RBI to give him a 111 wRC+ on the season. The pitching matchup is also favorable as Kendall Graveman has been below average for most of the year with an awful strikeout rate(5.46 K/9) and 4.15 xFIP. Pujols is a safe bet in all formats tonight.

 

Dae-ho Lee FD 2700 DK 2700
Opponent - BOS (Porcello) Park - @SEA
FD - 8.86 DK - 6.78

To load up on the top Rockies hitters (Arenado, Blackmon, Cargo) in a stack you will have to take a few long shots in your lineup. Dae-ho Lee is one of these plays that comes at a small price and allows a ton of flexibility throughout your lineup. He isn't going to provide safety for cash games with a .264 average but he has shown some pop in his bat in his first major league season with 13 home runs and 40 RBI to go with a 115 wRC+. The matchup vs. Rick Porcello isn't ideal but this pick is strictly about price and what rostering Lee gives you access to throughout your lineup.

 

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate 

Ryan Schimpf FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @SD
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.07

He absolutely tore it up in July with a Padre rookie record nine home runs and added 18 RBI and 19 runs scored for an elite 196 wRC+. The price has came up slowly over the past month but still sits at a value when looking at the projections as he ranks #1 from a PTS/$ perspective in the early slate. He was moved up to the two hole again on Tuesday night and if he remains there should get an added bump come lineup lock. Take the savings and the use it to help pay up for Scherzer or power bats in the early slate.

 
Evening Slate

Jason Kipnis FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - MIN (Duffey) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.37

With Jose Altuve heating up with five hits in the first two games in the series with the Jays I think the ownership at the top of the 2B position will be spread out tonight. That is good news because I will have a ton of Jason Kipnis tonight who was one of the hottest hitters at the position in July. He hit six home runs and slashed .330/.382/.600 with a 163 wRC+ and the Indians get one of the best pitching matchups on the slate. They are facing the Twins and Tyler Duffey who somehow still has a spot in the rotation after not making it through the 3rd inning in either of his last two starts. He has also surrendered 15 earned runs over his last 10 innings pitched with just two strikeouts. He is safe in all formats.

 
Howie Kendrick FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.78

More exposure to Coors Field through the road team tonight. Kendrick not only gets a positive park shift but he also strong splits vs. left handed pitching this year with a .348 wOBA and 120 wRC+. As I mentioned with Ellis, Tyler Anderson struggles against right handed hitters giving up a .292 average  and all four home runs he has surrendered this season. After spending most of July in the leadoff spot or five hole Kendrick was moved down to 8th last night in the first game of the series. Be sure to check our updated projections and optimizer prior to lineup lock.

 

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.23 DK - 9.77

The young second basemen continues to impress hitting at the top of the Nationals lineup with a .318/.357/.485 slash line in his first 17 games this season. The price is still in a favorable spot on both sites and looking at the early projections he ranks right up there as a top play from a PTS/$ perspective on the early slate. Some of the positive projection comes with the matchup vs. Zack Godley who has been less than impressive over his last four starts. He has only produced a 2 to 1 K:BB ratio with an ugly 4.20 xFIP. Turner could have added value tonight if Godley is handing out free passes as he can tear it up on the base paths with his speed and has already stolen eight bases.

 
Evening Slate

Brad Miller FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TB
FD - 9.99 DK - 8.03

In his first season with the Rays Miller has found a power stroke and nearly matched his totals from the last two seasons combined. It has brought him into fantasy relevance this season as he makes a high upside play that usually comes with very low ownership as well. He is in a favorable spot on Wednesday as he hits in the two hole and should see 2-3 at bats against streaky Edinson Volquez who struggles on the road. In nine starts away from Kauffman Stadium, Volquez has pitched to the tune of a 4.79 xFIP while allowing opponents to hit for a .276 average and a 16.7% HR/FB rate.

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

Kris Bryant FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.1 DK - 10.06

On a slate without any other elite 3B options(Arenado, Donaldson, Mahado all on Main Slate), Kris Bryant is far and away the top option. Outside of the RBI total he has already matched his numbers from his rookie season and with the ceiling nowhere in site. He has improved on his strikeout rate by about 7% which has helped boost his average and OBP almost 10 points each. Tom Koehler shouldn't present much resistance to the Cubs bats today as he doesn't miss many bats with a below average 5.4 K/9 rate over his last six starts with an ugly 5.04 xFIP.

 
Evening Slate

Manny Machado FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.87

Even though the projection system absolutely loves Machado's current price point in the second tier at the position I can't trust him for cash games. He has struggled in July but has kept his average above .300 for the season and while he has decided to stop stealing, the power remains as he already has 22 home runs on the season. He makes a fantastic high upside GPP play and terrific pivot off Arenado and Coors should you choose to go that route. Arenado always makes a great high upside play but we choose not to list the Rockies bats when they are at home as they are a very obvious target. If Machado and the Orioles can get to Hamels early it could prove to be the difference in a GPP min cash or big win.

 

Alex Bregman FD 2300 DK 3600
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.07 DK - 8.03

I won't pay the price on DraftKings tonight but will take a shot with him on FanDuel as a punt play in my lineups where I am stacking Coors Field. It has been a very slow start to Bregman's career as the rookie has only recorded one hit in his first 30 plate appearances. In his brief minor league career he has shown us the ability to get on base at a high rate and produce runs. He will get a ton of opportunity for the Astros if they keep batting him near the top of the lineup as he has spent each of the past three games in the two hole. And who doesn't want to be on a rookie when he explodes onto the scene?

 

 

OUTFIELD

Early Slate

Jason Heyward FD 2900 DK 3100
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.16 DK - 8.19

I will continue to pick on Tom Koehler today. First of all you have a pitcher who is walking 4.26 batters per nine going up against a team that walks(10.9%) more than any other team in the league vs. right handed pitching. This presents opportunity for players throughout the lineup to drive in runs. Heyward is hitting down in the six hole which isn't very appealing but the price reflects his spot in the order and gives up plenty of room for upside. He has also been red hot lately with hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games.
Evening Slate

Mike Trout FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @LAA
FD - 15.23 DK - 11.92

Despite being priced back in the elite tier where he should be the projection system rates him high on a PTS/$ basis tonight. He is a five tool player that comes in to tonight's action slashing .313/.425/.543 for the season and has got back to stealing bases with his highest total(17) in three seasons. He is putting up these elite numbers once again and doing it on a depleted roster of pretty much scrub players and aging veterans. Trout will be in a nice spot on Wednesday vs. Kendall Graveman who doesn't miss many bats with a low 5.46 K/9 rate which has seen him post a 4.51 xFIP so far in the 2016 season. All systems go for the games best player.

Matt Holliday FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.27

Holliday and the Cards could be facing the slates worst pitcher in Cody Reed Wednesday night. While he shows strikeout upside, Reed has gone winless in his first seven major league starts with a 7.07 ERA. The issue has been his lack of control(3.53 BB/9) and inability to get out of jams(57.7 LOB%). Teams have been punishing him for his mistakes with a 32.3% HR/FB rate coming from a 40% hard contact rate. Holliday is aging and no longer lights the world on fire but like Pujols, can still offer power upside at an affordable price.

 

Enrique Hernandez FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.58

Ok. In researching his stats I found three different ways to say his first name(Kika, Kike and Enrique). Either way it comes out of your he makes an elite value play in Coors Field should he start against the lefty tonight. In his short major league career he has destroyed southpaws with a .406 wOBA and 162 wRC+.  Add that to the positive park shift and he is a near must play tonight on both sites, especially if you are stacking Dodgers.

 

 

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