Daily Fantasy MLB Pitcher Breakdown FanDuel and DraftKings- 7/31/16

Welcome to our new daily article breaking down some of the other pitching targets on this slate. We covered our system's top value plays in our daily picks article, but here we will look at other dudes to consider.

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Pitching Targets

Michael Pineda FD 9000 DK 9900
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 34.11 DK - 22.8

Oh, it's just so juicy when there's a guy whose price hasn't caught up to the performance just yet. That's the case with Pineda on FanDuel today. After two electric starts in a row, Pineda's performance is finally catching up to his peripherals. We've been touting this for a while now, but Pineda's xFIP (3.23) has been solidly 2 runs below his ERA for most of the season, and a bounceback like this was essentially preordained. Now you've got a guy who's priced like a middle of the road starter, but who has 10+ K/9 and the ability to go deeper into games - a sick package for big tournaments.

And the Rays? Dream match-up for a guy with Pineda's skillset. They've struck out at the third highest rate vs. RHP this season, and have the 6th lowest wOBA against them. I might be talking myself into Pineda for cash games, to be honest.

Blake Snell FD 7700 DK 8600
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @TB
FD - 29.76 DK - 19.54

The other side of this contest doesn't look so bad either, if big time separation is your thing. This isn't your grandmother's Yankees team, and they're lineup is so left-handed that facing a lefty here makes things pretty tough on them. They've posted the 3rd worst wOBA against LHP in the majors this season in spite of playing in a great ballpark and being in the American league. Yuck. The one fly in the ointment here is their K rate - they don't actually strike out a whole heck of a lot - but since we're looking for off-beat plays, it's okay to take on a wart or two.

As for Snell, he's basically an erratic young pitcher who has a solid strike-out rate and a too-high walk rate. Never a cash consideration for me, here.

Corey Kluber - FD 10900 DK 11800
Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @CLE
On a day where Noah Syndergaard has a good match-up, it's going to be tough for me to avert my eyes for cash games. That said, there's a lot to like about King Kluber today. The A's against RHP are a mirror image of the Yankees against LHP - tough to strike out, but the worst in the AL at actually doing anything with the contact they do make.

The knock on Kluber is that he's taken a step back from being a true ace's ace this season - his K rate has dipped about 10% relative to last season's performance, and his walk rate has risen about 10%. And like a lot of pitchers, he seems to be on a fairly strict pitch count - even in his dominant starts in the last 3 games, he's topped out at 101 pitches. Still, Kluber is a phenomenal pitcher at reasonable prices, and should at least be on your radar.

Some notes on the cheap guys
We're mostly thinking DraftKings, here. Casey Kelly probably can't get cheap enough for me to consider him - he's just been abominable, and in the absence of an ace's ace and a lot of super-premium big time bats, I won't be taking the risk.

Carlos Rodon is a lot more intriguing at $6,800 - but will he be on a tight leash since it's his first start back? Tough to trust it, but the upside is obviously there if they let him go 100 pitches. Not counting on it, though.

If we're talking straight up, off the wall lightning in a bottle catching? I might be thinking Tyler Skaggs. While his last name sounds like something you might wind up with after some too-wild college years, Skaggs has shown the potential for big time upside at the minor league level, and while it hasn't quite translated to the major league level yet, the talent is unquestionably there.

He also happens to be facing an incredible lineup. It's a great park, but the Red Sox have dominated left handed pitching all season long. Still, in the event that they sit a premium bat or two, Skaggs might be a guy I jam in a $2 GPP.
 

 

 
 

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