Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - PGA Championship

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PGA Championship

Baltusrol Golf Club - Springfield, NJ

Par 70 - 7,428 Yards

The RBC Canadian Open is now in the books and it was Jhonattan Vegas shooting a final round 64 to capture the trophy. It was very disappointing for the top 2 ranked Canadians, Graham DeLaet and David Hearn but we got a glimpse into some up and coming talent. Four Canadians in total made the cut(De Toit, Rank, Conners, Hadwin) with Jared De Toit making the final group on Sunday and eventually finishing with a tie for 9th. Other notable Top 10's came from Dustin Johnson(T2), Jon Rahm(T2), Brandt Snedeker(T5), and Matt Kuchar(T7). With a just a week removed from the OPEN Championship we head into the final Major of the season. Let's get started.

Due to the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio the PGA Championship has been pushed up into July giving us our second Major Championship in three weeks. The final major of the year, the PGA Championship, brings us to Springfield, New Jersey to the historic Baltusrol Golf Club. The course was opened in 1922 and put lead architect, A.W. Tillinghast, on the map. It was the first time two 18 hole golf courses had been built side by side at the same time. Baltrusol is also one of only four golf courses(Chambers Bay, Baltrusol GC, Oakmont CC, and Merion GC) in America to be named a historic landmark. The course last hosted the PGA Championship back in 2005 when Phil Mickelson birdied the 72nd hole to win by one stroke over Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington.

The course is a Par 70 that stretches out to a lengthy 7,428 yards. The fairways are going to be tough to hit putting an emphasis on the longer hitters off the tee as they will have shorter approaches and much easier clubs to navigate from the rough. Not to say that the shorter, accuracy guys can't succeed here but they will need to be spot on with their irons for 200+ this week. All four Par 3's are also all over 196 yards putting more emphasis on accuracy from 200+.  There are four four Par 4's on the front nine that come in over 475 yards with two of them at 500+ yards. Par 4 scoring will be extremely important with 12 of them on the course and while Par 5 scoring makes up a ton of a players score it will be a little less weighted this week as the 650 Yard, Par 5 17th hole (1 of only 2 Par 5's) will be a three shot hole for almost every player in the field. With a winning score expected to be in the Even to -5 range Bogey Avoidance will also be weighted heavy this week as players will be looking to minimize mistakes. As always I will be looking at the Strokes Gained metrics with the focus on Off the Tee and Around the Green.

 

Below is a list of the key stats I am using in  my model on the cheatsheet this week:

 

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Driving Distance
• Par 5 Scoring Average
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Proximity from 200+ Yards
• Bogey Avoidance
• Scrambling

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's). I will also be joining Doug on the Wednesday Podcast to discuss the tournament each week. Also on Wednesday, you can join me for a live Google Hangout over at Slurv.com. I am always available on Twitter as well(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

High End Targets ($8,500+)

Dustin Johnson
Vegas Odds - 8/1
Draftkings - $11,600

There really isn't much more to say about DJ right now. He is the hottest golfer on the planet and comes with huge upside once again this week. I love targeting long hitters, especially if they can be somewhat accurate as well. DJ has been putting on a Total Driving clinic lately and ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee this year. He has six straight Top 10 finishes including a win at the US Open and Bridgestone Invitational. He is coming off a T2 at the Canadian Open where he destroyed the Par 5's to the tune of -14 for the week. If he can do the same on the two Par 5's here at Baltusrol he will just have to avoid the big number on the front nine and he will be on the leaderboard come Sunday. With softer pricing this week I feel DJ is a safe in any format with a high floor and sky high ceiling.

 

Rory McIlroy
Vegas Odds - 10/1
Draftkings - $11,400

With the soft pricing this week it is quite easy to fit two elite golfers in your GPP lineups. Rory comes with huge upside and score in bunches when it comes to DraftKings scoring. He ranks 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring and 2nd in Birdie or Better%. He has already hoisted the Wannamaker twice('14 & '12) and finished 8th in 2013 and 17th last year. Will he keep up the trend of winning the PGA Championship every two years? It is very possible if he can control one thing. Making too many Bogeys. He has back doored a Top 10 finish in three of his last five tournaments and if he can avoid the big numbers he enter the leaderboard through the front door on Sunday! He has a high floor for DFS with the amount of birdies and eagles he makes and has the ability to run away with any tournament.

 

Henrik Stenson
Vegas Odds - 17/1
Draftkings - $10,500

He had won some big tournaments in his career(PLAYERS in '09, Deutsche Bank and Tour Championship in '13), but none as big as the OPEN Championship just 10 days ago. He didn't just win the tourny either. He and Phil Mickelson lapped the field on the weekend after getting a terrific weather draw Thursday and Friday and Henrik pulled away on the back nine on Sunday for an incredible 20 under Par with all four rounds under 70. He is going to be a popular pick this week but almost impossible to avoid. He is average off the tee when looking at distance but ranks 6th in accuracy and 1st in Good Drive % giving him a rank of 4th in Total Driving and 2nd in Ball Striking. He also fits my model in that he ranks 16th in Par 4 Scoring and 6th in Par 5 Scoring and 4th in BoB%. He finished 25th at the PGA last year which followed up back to back 3rd place finishes in 2014 and 2013. Look for Stenson's name on the leaderboard once again this weekend.

 

 

Also Consider - Bubba Watson

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,500)

Zach Johnson
Vegas Odds - 51/1
Draftkings - $8,400

IN the $8K range it comes down to two players for me, one for cash games and one for GPP's. While I prefer Kuchar in cash games as he fits my stats model a little better with his Off the Tee and ball striking stats. With a mid $4K price tag I can see Kuchar being 25%+ in GPP's this week and that has me pivoting down to Zach Johnson. Another reason I prefer Zach over Kuch is there recent major form. Kuch is having a great season overall but struggled in majors with finishes of T24 at the Masters and T46 at the US Open and British Open. Zach on the other hand missed the cut at the Masters, finished T8 at the US Open and T12 at the OPEN Championship which he won a year ago. I think both players have the ability to finish inside the Top 10 this week but I give the edge to Zach in winning upside and ownership.

 

Branden Grace
Vegas Odds - 61/1
Draftkings - $8,000

After a T72 at the OPEN Championship where he was $9,700 he has seen his price drop to it's lowest of all four of the majors. The shine has worn off as his ownership dropped to 18% for the OPEN and should be 15% or lower this week. He finished 3rd at the PGA last season and hits almost all the stats I am focusing on this week. He ranks Top 20 in SG: Total,T2G, and Approach and ranks 34th in Off the Tee and 58 in Putting. He drives the ball 295 + yards off the tee and has a nice accuracy with his long irons. He ranks 14th in Prox from 175-200 and 49th in Prox from 200+and 27th in Par 4 Scoring.

 

 

Charl Schwartzel
Vegas Odds - 41/1
Draftkings - $7,300

Looking at the Vegas odds of the guys in the mid to low $7K range, two golfers stand out as amazing vallues. Brandt Snedeker at $7,500 and Charl Schwartzel at $7,300. I lean Schwartzel as he is a bit cheaper, hits on a few more stats I am looking at and is a former major champion. Charl ranks Top 10 in SG: Total, T2G and Approach with Top 50 ranks in Off the Tee and Around the Green stats. He is above average in distance off the tee(295 yards) and ranks Top 10 in BoB%. He has made four cuts in the last five PGA Championships highlighted by two Top 15 finishes. Strong play in any format this week.

 

Also Consider - Lee Westwood

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Nicolas Colsaerts
Vegas Odds - 201/1
Draftkings - $6,700

For the low end targets this week I am relying on a couple European Tour players who have done everything this season but win. Colsaerts fits the bill when looking at stats for this week as he bombs the ball 300+ and is hitting over 75% GIR on the European Tour this season. He currently sits 32nd in the Race to Dubai and has some current form to go off of this week. He has reeled off two 3rd place finishes(Scottish Open, Nordea Masters) since the start of June and I would not be surprised to see his name appear on the leaderboard at some point this weekend.  He isn't safe enough to be considered for cash games but makes a great GPP play that could be low owned.

 

Tyrrell Hatton
Vegas Odds - 201/1
Draftkings - $6,600

While Colsaerts isn't the safe choice I feel comfortable with Hatton in any format this week. He has average distance off the tee(292 yards) and is very accurate(61% fairways hit and 69% GIR). When looking at overall stroke average when combining Euro Tour and PGA Tour stats he ranks 29th with a 70.4 scoring average and he is also a very good scrambler. He is coming in with excellent form with back to back Top 5 finishes at the OPEN Championship and Scottish Open. He finished 25th in last years PGA Championship and I can see a similar results this year with how well he is playing.

 

Also Consider - Si Woo Kim, Brendan Steele

 

The PGA Championship Update Thread

 

Rory McIlroy's career at the #PGAChamp pic.twitter.com/E1ZUqEoZe6

— The European Tour (@EuropeanTour) July 25, 2016

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for The PGA Championship? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.