Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/15/16

Baseball is back! Baseball is back! It's seems like forever and a day since we last got to play DFS baseball. I personally put the extra time into my OPEN Championship research which will hopefully pad the bankroll for the second half surge to Toronto and Fantasy Baseball World Championships. Sure maybe it's a pipe dream but if you don't set goals how are you going to get better.

We have 15 games today with one early game between the Rangers and Cubs in Chicago leaving us with a large 14 game main slate starting at 7:00 pm et. The pitching options are great coming out of the break with Madison Bumgarner, Carlso Carrasco, and Stephen Strasburg at the top with some decent value play in the mid to low tier. It is a great day to play on FanDuel as the pricing is extremely soft on some top end hitters. Let's take a look.

 

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PITCHER

Madison Bumgarner FD 11900 DK 11100
Opponent - SD (Cashner) Park - @SD
FD - 43.13 DK - 24.17

Bumgarner finished the first half with a 10-4 record, 1.94 ERA and 10.13 K/9 rate(highest of his career). Following the All Star break he comes at a great value on DraftKings at his lowest price on since May 6th but is still an elite play in any format tonight. The Padres are coming into the second half ranked 4th in wOBA vs. left handed pitching but are striking out over 23% of the time.  In two previous meetings vs. the Padres this year he has allowed just three earned runs while striking out 20 batters in 15.2 innings.
Stephen Strasburg FD 11400 DK 12000
Opponent - PIT (Liriano) Park - @WSH
FD - 34.35 DK - 19.15

As of writing this Strasburg isn't listed as a starter on either DraftKings or FanDuel. He threw a bullpen session on Tuesday and all indications are that he will start vs. the Pirates on Friday night.  Strasburg was terrific in the first half going 12-0 with a 2.62 ERA/3.03 xFIP and an elite 11.14 K/9 rate. He is holding opponents to just a 25% hard contact rate and .199 average while producing an above average 11.3% Swinging Strike Rate. He will get a matchup vs. the Pirates who rank 28th in wOBA with an awful 24.7% strikeout rate in the last 30 days.

 

James Paxton FD 7100 DK 7800
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @SEA
FD - 30.07 DK - 15.55

Paxton makes a great value play tonight at a price under $8K on both sites. He offers almost everything we look for in a pitcher. The Mariners will open the second half as favorites(-135) at home in a terrific pitchers park and will face an Astros team who ranks 27th in wOBA vs. left handed pitching. Paxton has struggled with just four strikeouts in his last two starts but should get a boost as the Astros have one of the highest K rates(23.8%) of any team vs. southpaws.

 

 

 

CATCHER

Willson Contreras FD 3100 DK n/a 
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.5 DK - 8.17

He has impressed early as he brought his minor league success with him to the Cubs and is slashing .305/.387/.561 with five home runs and a 153 wRC+ in 23 games. He only spent two games in the nine hole when Schwarber went before being moved to the cleanup spot where he has spent a large majority of his starts. He is more of a cash game play for me tonight as he is very consistent hitting .321 vs. left handed pitchers but comes with more power against righties.
Stephen Vogt FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - TOR (Stroman) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.38 DK - 7.28

Vogt went into the break red hot with hits in four of his last five games pushing his average to . 277 on the season. He is also second among catchers with 18 doubles on the season and has even added two triples. He gets a matchup vs. the Blue Jays and Marcus Stroman who isn't going to scare many batters with his 6.44 K/9 rate and below average 8% swing strike rate. With some excellent high priced options at other positions take the value at catcher and move on.

FIRST BASE

Miguel Cabrera FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @DET
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.86

One of the top values plays at any position on a nightly basis. First base is loaded with high end talent pushing one of the best hitters of our generation down the salary list. While the walk rate is down which also brings the OBP down with it, the power is back and he is currently on pace to record his first 30 HR season since hitting 44 in 2013. He will face Ian Kennedy who comes with K upside(9.30 K/9) but also struggles as a fly ball pitcher with a 4.47 xFIP and 16.4% HR/FB rate.
Mark Teixeira FD 2600 DK 3200
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.06

If contrarian is your style take a shot with Teixeira at bargain prices on both sites. He will be extremely low owned and has consistently hit left handed pitching better over his career. He will face a weaker one in Rodriguez tonight who is pitching to a 5.78 xFIP and 18.4% HR/FB rate. Teix has struggled to an average below .200 but has shown multi hit, multi home run upside. If you are trying to fit two top end pitchers tonight Teix makes perfect salary fit at first base.

 

SECOND BASE

Neil Walker FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.04

The All Star break was most likely a welcome site for Walker who had only recorded two hits in his last six games. He isn't going to provide you a consistent average(.254) or OBP(.323) but what he can provide is a ton of pop in the bat. After hitting 16 homes runs all of last season with the Pirates it looks like a park shift is just what he needed to get top that 20+ HR plateau. He has already recorded 15 long balls in his first 82 games and is hitting with a 36% hard hit contact rate.
Greg Garcia FD 2200 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Chen) Park - @STL
FD - 9.98 DK - 8.14

With Matt Carpenter on the disabled list utility player Greg Garcia wil get more playing time at third base. He also spent his final three starts before the All Star break in the leadoff spot which adds a ton of value and a main reason why the projections have him rated as one of the top PTS/$ plays today. In 90 plate appearances in 2016 he is slashing .333/.467/.458 with an impressive 158 wRC+. His best value is on FanDuel where he comes at near minimum price.

 

SHORTSTOP

Troy Tulowitzki FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - OAK (Mengden) Park - @OAK
FD - 8.23 DK - 6.27

When these current projections came out the Blue Jays were set to face Rich Hill who has now been scratched. Instead they will face rookie Daniel Mengden, who like most rookies, struggles with control(3.79 BB/9 rate) early on and is pitching to a 4.54 ERA and 4.08 xFIP in his first six major league starts. After spending a large portion of the start of the season hitting below .200, Tulo turned it on when he returned from the disabled list slashing .313/.371/.600 since June 18th. He is still coming at a nice value for the upside and is actually hitting close to 40 points higher vs. right handed pitching.
Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.5 DK - 7.42

I would only consider Cabrera on FanDuel today where the projection system has him ranked as the top PTS/$ play at the shortstop position. There is nothing really exciting about his game but he is consistent enough to warrant a punt play when trying to get an elite pitcher and a few top bats in your lineup. Cabrera is coming into the second half with 15 home runs, 29 RBI, and 37 runs scored and has spent most of the season hitting out of the five or six hole for the Mets.

 

THIRD BASE

Kyle Seager FD 3200 DK 4900
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.16 DK - 7.81

Seager is one player that wished the All Star break never happened as he came in to the break red hot. In his final 13 games dating back to June 28th he is slashing /449/.500/.816 with an astounding 249 wRC+. In that time he is also tearing the cover off the ball with a 46% hard hit contact rate. The third base position is stacked as it usually is but I don't think you need to pay up to the top to get the most upside. Seager gets a matchup vs. Doug Fister who went into the break losing three straight starts and allowing 11 earned runs with only 11 strikeouts. Seager is safe in all formats, especially on FanDuel.

 

Maikel Franco FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - NYM (Colon) Park - @PHI
FD - 11 DK - 8.49

It has been an extremely streaky first half for Franco which has benefited us in DFS from the standpoint that his salary has stayed affordable. He is coming into the second half riding a 10 game hit streak where he is slashing .450/.476/.875 with five home runs, 11 RBI, and 11 runs scored. He is a high upside power hitting third basemen who comes at a discount, especially on FanDuel where he is ranked 23rd in salary.

 

OUTFIELD

Mike Trout FD 4500 DK 5000
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @LAA
FD - 14.51 DK - 11.36

With a depleted roster around him Trout continues to improve his game and remain the best player in baseball. He has brought his average back to .322 which is his highest since 2013. He has increased his walk rate(15%) and decreased his strikeouts(18.4% down from 23% in 2015 and 25% in 2013). This has helped him get to an elite OBP of .425 and resulted in an elite 168 wRC+ on the season. He will face Miguel Gonzalez who had a few great starts going into the break but is no match for Trout. Gonzalez is pitching to a 4.39 ERA and even worse xFIP of 4.86. He has limited the home runs but struggled big time with control(3.49 BB/9). If you are paying up for one bat in the outfield today make it Trout.
Mookie Betts FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.38 DK - 9.44

Looking at the salaries between the two sites, it appears FanDuel has taken a break and let a monkey set values coming out of the break. There is no way Betts should be mid $3K after entering the All Break with a 11 game hit streak. In his final 17 games before the break he was slashing .367/.390/.570 and had a hit in 16 of those games. He hits leadoff for the team who leads the majors in runs scored(490) and have distanced themselves from the Cubs in second(460). He is GPP viable on DraftKings but at top tier pricing I would rather have Trout but on FanDuel it's Betts all day long in any format.
Adam Duvall FD 3000 DK 4800
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.85

After spending two seasons back and forth between AAA and the majors for the Reds and Giants Adam Duvall has broken out in a big way in 2016. He isn't safe in cash games with a 29% K rate and low .249 batting average and .288 OBP but he is a great GPP play with huge power upside. He finished the first half hitting with a 39.3% hard hit contact rate which has resulted in 23 home runs, 61 RBI and 48 runs scored. He is facing a righty in Matt Garza and while you would think he would be better vs. southpaws that isn't the case at all. His average is within a few points against both sides but 19 of his 23 home runs have come vs. right handed pitching.

 

 

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