Daily Fantasy Baseball News and Updates for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/6/15

Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!

Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.

By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!

What We Know

It's another split-slate Wednesday and that means loads of action available across the industry. Read on for updates and our recommendations for stacks, an under-the-radar pitching option and a couple of building blocks to get your lineups started right.

Personnel

• Rajai Davis and Yan Gomes are getting the day for Cleveland. Jose Ramirez is getting the start in LF and hitting fifth, while Chris Gimenez is behind the plate and batting ninth.
• Jung Ho Kang is reportedly under investigation for an alleged sexual assault. He was on the bench for the second straight game Tuesday, but eventually entered as a pinch hitter.
• Shin-Soo Choo left last night's game with a back issue. The oft-injured OF is considered day-to-day for now.
• Nick Castellanos was a late scratch last night due to illness, but is back in the lineup and hitting fifth today.
• Jose Reyes made his season debut last night, going 0-for-4 while playing 3B and hitting atop the Mets' lineup. He's hitting leadoff again today, but is not yet available in the player base on FanDuel.
• Jhonny Peralta was pulled from last night's game after experiencing pain in his thumb. He's considered day-to-day.
• Brandon Moss has been placed on the DL with an ankle injury. Randall Grichuk was called up to replace him on the roster.
• Steven Souza was removed from last night's game, but the move was reportedly due to a lack of hustle and not injury-related.
• Chris Johnson is getting another start with Justin Bour is out again today. The Marlins 1B headed back to Miami yesterday to undergo an MRI on his injured ankle.
• Gregor Blanco was a late scratch last night due to a knee issue, but did make an appearance as a pinch hitter.
• Alex Avila left last night's game with a hamstring injury and is expected to be sidelined for at least a couple of games.

Tournament Stacks

Chicago Cubs
Weather plays a bigger role at Wrigley Field than just about any park in the majors and today's forecast calls for homers. Keep an eye out, because rain could interrupt the fun, but the wind is blowing out, and that spells danger for Anthony DeSclafani. On the surface, the Reds starter has been pretty stout in limited work this season, but he's not as good as that sterling 1.78 ERA might have you believe. His xFIP is about three runs higher, in fact, and he's due for some home run regression if he can't do a better job of coaxing ground balls. Meanwhile, the Cubs lead the NL in long balls and rank second in wOBA and wRC+ against RHP. And as always when we're talking about Cincinnati, the bullpen plays a substantial role in this pick. The Reds relievers are the worst in baseball in xFIP, HR/9 and BB/9, so it could get ugly if the Cubs can chase DeSclafani early.

Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have done their best work against righties this season, but they're still a top 5-ish offense by most metrics against southpaws, and the projection system sees Martin Perez as the perfect candidate to boost those numbers further. In Perez we've got another case where the peripherals don't match the solid surface numbers (4.91 xFIP vs. 3.39 ERA). Some guys have a proven ability to consistently outperform the advanced stats, but Perez hasn't traditionally been one of them, and the underlying numbers are pretty ugly this season. His already-below average strikeout rate has fallen further this season to 4.83 Ks/9, and his walks are up to 3.82 per 9. That's awful combo. The one thing Perez does well is get ground balls, and that can sink a stack quickly. But he's giving up enough hard contact (31.8%) that we think the Red Sox should be finding some holes even if Perez is at his best. The projection system loves the righties at the top of the lineup, and apparently Vegas does, too, as Boston is slated to score about six runs tonight.

Consider: Toronto Blue Jays. The guys you really want are pricey, but Ian Kennedy is just a slightly better version of Chris Young, so a couple more homers are expected.

Sneaky Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

I'm guessing an ugly ERA, a hitter-friendly park and the Royals' lingering reputation as dangerous lineup will conspire to keep Stroman's ownership low tonight, and that makes him an attractive option in tournaments. There's no way to get around the fact that Rogers Centre boosts offense, so he's not a safe play. But I think we can poke some holes in the theory that Stroman is bad and the Royals are good. Astute players are already aware that this isn't last year's Kansas City team. They rank 20th in the majors in wRC+ against righties, and they strike out in nearly 20 percent of plate appearances. That's not a terrible number or anything, but it's a heck of a lot more than last year when no pitcher was a good play against them. As for Stroman, that 5.08 ERA looks like a product of bad luck. He's pretty average when it comes to strikeouts, so the upside is limited, but a 59 percent ground ball rate means he should be limiting the damage better than he has so far this season, and we're expecting results more in line with 3.83 xFIP going forward. That's not terribly exciting, but it should be fine for your SP2 on DraftKings, and the potential for a win (Blue Jays are a -170 favorite), makes him a solid cost-saving play on FanDuel, as well.

The "Every Lineup" Guys

Xander Bogaerts

As mentioned, the projection system really wants us to pick on Martin Perez tonight, and Bogaerts is perhaps its favorite play of the day. We really like him on FanDuel, where's $600 cheaper than the top three shortstops on the night slate, but even on DraftKings, where you'll have to spend to get him, he's projected as a good value. The floor here is high due to Perez's penchant for walks and inability to miss bats, not to mention Bogaerts' .383 wOBA vs. lefties this season. And even with just one multi-hit game in his last 10, Bogaerts continues to produce. It's been over two weeks since his last goose egg and we'd be surprised if that streak ends tonight. If you're hunting multiple home run upside, you might want to look elsewhere (Carlos Correa or Troy Tulowitzki, perhaps), but if you want reliable production, we think Bogaerts is your guy.

Johnny Cueto

We've got Cueto as the go-to option for pitching on the night slate, and for cash games, there's really not a close second. By most metrics, Cueto remains the same good-to-great guy he's always been, with an ERA in the mid 2s and an xFIP in the mid 3s. The one area where he's shown marked improvement is home run suppression, which is no surprise considering where his home games are now played. AT&T Park was the best pitching venue in MLB last season, and Cueto is taking full advantage, surrendering just two bombs in more than 60 innings in San Francisco this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies have struggled away from Coors Field, ranking 25th in team wOBA on the road, and in this series they get the biggest park downgrade possible. Cueto hasn't been at his best in his last two outings, but those are his first two starts with more than two runs allowed since May 2, and he's in a good spot to deliver solid production tonight.

One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.

These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.

Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!