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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/4/16
Welcome to the 4th of July and some Monday baseball! We have a full 15 game all day slate, however, it is broke into an early only and a "main" late slate. I will address both slates at each position, feel free to leave a comment or join the live chat if you have any questions. Make sure to check out our other articles as well as they will touch on some pitching options, tournament stacks and any weather concerns that may arise. let's get right into the top options at each spot!
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PITCHER
Kyle Hendricks FD 9200 DK 10400
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @CHC
FD - 35.17 DK - 23.42
While the early slate is a lot larger in size than the late slate, it's pitching is a lot worse. With a true ace missing, we are going to look at Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs have been on a huge down slide lately and they will look to regain their footing at home in Wrigley Field. Hendricks will lead the charge against the Reds team that has struggled mightily against righties with a .299 wOBA that is backed up by a 81 wRC+. Hendricks on the other hand, has been very good this season with a .378 SIERA and peripherals to support it. While Hendricks does lack some upside, I do not think a 60 point performance will be necessary on the early slate. On the late slate, I think there is a very sneaky and good options Let's get to it.
Archie Bradley FD 6600 DK 8500
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @ARI
FD - 31.05 DK - 20.42
While I do expect Bradley to be the chalk by the end of the night, I really hope he goes ignored. While he certainly has some implosion potential, so does everyone else on this slate. Bradley is cheap enough where you can afford an average game and still get the necessary bats to take down a tournament. While Bradley will likely have some troubles against the lefties, he will certainly dominate the 6 righties as evidenced by his .273 wOBA and batted ball peripherals. As we all know, the Padres are the worst team in the league against righties and I am not buying the 2 week sample size where they have scored a few runs. I am comfortable with Bradley in all formats, though does come with a lot of risk.
CATCHER
Evan Gattis FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.52
Evan Gattis was pretty highly owned yesterday and disappointed, as he allotted only a single on the day. He will look to turn that around today against the left hander Wade Miley. Aside from Miley being a bad pitcher overall, he is especially bad against righties. Over the past 2 seasons, Miley has exhibited a .342 wOBA that is supported by peripherals to right handers. Evan Gattis is a powerful bat that rakes lefties and that makes for a good recipe in the hitter friendly Minute Maid Park. Fire Gattis away in all formats, as long as he is in the lineup.
Russell Martin FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.56
The Toronto Blue Jays have the second highest run total on the late slate and I actually expect them to score the most runs on the slate. While the top bats are great plays, so is Russell martin at catcher. Martin has turned it around recently and is now hitting righties to the tune of a .322 wOBA over the past 2 seasons. Edinson Volquez on the other hand, has had some hiccups this yea and has a very good shot at another one here against the dangers Blue Jays bats. With catcher being pretty slim on the late slate, Martin makes for a very good play in all formats. You can also play Castillo or Hermann, whoever is in the lineup.
FIRST BASE
David Ortiz FD 4800 DK 5500
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 15.63 DK - 11.75
David Ortiz is an elite play almost every day and today will be no different. The Red Sox are going to be a common trend here in this article and that is usually what happens when a top 5 offense faces off with Nick Martinez in a hitters ballpark. Ortiz has destroyed right handers this season as evident by his .484 wOBA. While that number is likely to drop, his peripherals do not suggest it will drop too much. I will touch on Nick Martinez in a bit, but just know that he is horrible at everything, expect giving up runs. Ortiz makes for a tremendous play in all formats and I will be doing whatever is necessary to get him in my lineup.
Paul Goldschmidt FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.25
The Diamondbacks are coming in with the highest projected run total of the late slate, and rightfully so. They are taking on a right hander in Luis Perdomo that has been absolutely atrocious. Since entering the league, Perdomo has exhibited a combined wOBA over .400 and while that may be a tiny bit inflated, there is no reason to believe he is a good pitcher. Goldschmidt is one of the absolute best hitters in the league and he brings a unique upside to the table with both speed and power. With 15 home runs and 11 stolen bases, he has exhibited that upside plenty. The Diamondbacks are great plays and there top hitter is one of the best options on the slate.
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve FD 3800 DK 5600
Opponent - SEA (Miley) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.02 DK - 10.48
Altuve is going to be our top play as he is facing off against a lefty, what's new? Altuve dominates righties as much as anyone in the league and I truthfully don;t think this one needs to much of an explanation. With power, speed and a wOBA over .350 against lefties, Altuve deserves a ton of consideration in both cash games and tournaments. As mentioned, Wade Miley is a bad left hander and you should look to target him, especially in hitter friendly ballpark like Minute Maid.
Devon Travis FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Volquez) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.32
As I mentioned when speaking about Martin, I expect the Jays to put up a bunch of runs against Edinson Volquez. Travis has entered the mix and has been very productive with 5 home runs and 13 total extra base hits through only 30 games played. He will likely be hitting at the top of the lineup and will make for a great play in all formats, especially on FanDuel where is only $2800. He will be a tougher play on DK, so I would look at someone like Phil Gosselin or Chase Utley if they are in the lineup.
SHORTSTOP
Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.65
Here is our second of 4 Red Sox bats and he is going to likely be very highly owned, rightfully so. With shortstop being a weak position and the Red Sox having a 5.96 run projection, the eyes will turn towards the X-Man, who has hit righties very well this year. Martinez is one of the worst pitchers in the league and will have a ton of trouble with this offense. Dating back to 2014, Martinez has given up a .362 combined wOBA that is backed up by a very high hard contact rate and peripherals to support it. Bogaerts is far and away the top option at shortstops, in all formats and on all sites.
Francisco Lindor FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.28 DK - 7.76
Shortstop is a very weak position on the late slate as well, though I think Tulowitzki and Seager can be targeted. That being said, Francisco Lindor is going to be my top option taking on a southpaw in Daniel Norris. Lindor is a switcher hitter and hits lefties much better with a .350 wOBA that is backed up by a 34.4% pull rate and an average .311 BABIP. While Norris profiles as a good pitcher, he has had his fair share of troubles and will continue to do so until he learns to command his breaking pitches.
THIRD BASE
Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (Reed) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.83 DK - 9.93
While this is the first time I have mentioned the Cubs hitters, they make for a very good stack on the early slate. They will be taking on Cody Reed, a left handed soft tosser that struggles to get anyone out, let alone right handers with power. Kris Bryant is exactly that. Bryant will likely hit 60 home runs in a season very soon and he could very well build towards that today. While Reed is a good reason to target the Cubs, the worst bullpen in the league may be a better one.l With 0 good arms coming out of the bullpen, Bryant will have the advantage in every plate appearance, which could be 5 or 6 of them.
Jacob Lamb FD 3400 DK 5500
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.58
Jacob Lamb is going to have a very long and fulfilling MLB career if he continues to hit righties like he has for about 2 years now. With good peripherals and a good pedigree, it looks to be legitimate. Dating back to the start of last year, Lamb has hit righties to the tune of a .372 wOBA and he doesn't look to be lowing down a bit with 4 home runs in his last 5 games. Lamb is far and away the top option at third base, especially on FanDuel where he is $3400.
OUTFIELD
Mookie Betts FD 4000 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.37 DK - 11.92
Jackie Bradley FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.63 DK - 8.36
There is not too much to say about this match up. I could of added Brock Holt here, but I am not sure if he will be in the lineup as he is just returning from a very bad concussion. That being said, he is a great option if he is in the lineup. both Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley will be starting the all-stat game and rightfully so. With wOBA standing over .350 against righties, you can see why they have been so productive. Make sure you get some exposure to this Red Sox offense as they are going to put up a considerable amount of runs, and these guys will likely have something to do with it.
Peter O'Brien FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.78
Yasmany Tomas FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.9
While there are a few obvious ways to go in the outfield in the late slate, we are going to look at some guys that should be lower owned and have just as much upside as anyone. Those 2 guys are Yasmany Tomas and Peter O'Brien. Both of which are power right handed bats and have the upside to change the game with 1 swing of the bat. Like I mentioned when talking about Goldy and Lamb, Perdomo is a pitcher that should be targeted, especially when pitching in Chase Field. If you made me choose 1 of these guys, I would take the batting order and price into consideration.
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image sources
- kris bryant: By MBDChicago on Flickr [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
20 Visitor Comments
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So basically you are telling me to pick the most expensive player at each position in the early slate. I think it would be better to at least mention a few mid ranged guys in good positions while saying that the high priced ones are good picks as well.
What exactly are you looking for from a free article? Just trying to give a glimpse of the slate as whole. Solid breakdown here. Thanks for reading!
Couple interesting things looking at Vegas over/unders
Giants with highest run total of day At 7.1?
Despite James Shields Yankees with lowest run total of day
Thoughts on DFS impact?
I would have to agree Terry. Really not going out on a limb with any of these picks. By basically looking at the Vegas totals for the day and picking the top couple guys from them teams doesn’t help a guy in finding the value to put around them.
I love the people that whine about free things.
Ha. Strikes me as odd as well, but alas, we move on.
I appreciate the free advice, but those complaining do have a point. Suggesting all of the highest priced guys isn’t really helping anyone. A few cheap options would be a great addition to these picks.
Totally disagree with this obviously. Plenty of high priced players not mentioned here. This sets a baseline. Premium projection service accomplishes the rest.
Pay for the optimizer on this site and you will have access to all player info. How can you complain about free advice. I’ll tell you since I started using optimizer I’ve done nothing but grow my bankroll. Last night I won 1st in a FD 15,000 + person gpp. I owe my strategy to the advice on this site. Not sure where the luck comes from lol. So guys keep up the great work, I’m a very satisfied user!
I’m more likely to upgrade if can give me good contrarian picks on a consistent basis. Telling me to play David Ortiz against Nick Martinez does nothing but make people complain. If the goal of these rankings is to get a customer upgrade then today’s submission failed. You may want to break down your rankings even further. Cash versus GPP would be much different. Everyone will be on the Red Sox in GPP so I’m going a different route with the Phillies and parts of Minnesota.
Great that’s a prerogative, but we simply won’t be going that direction with free content. Happy to post and give breakdowns as part of our overall plan. But drilling down to that hyper-specific, contrarian level for free content simply won’t be happening here (at least not on a consistent basis). Thanks for reading.
My best gpp advice, sometimes go against a good pitcher when good hitter bats are cheap. Worked for me yesterday with Toronto.
Does seem to be a lot of high priced suggestions today. Good luck fitting them in a salary cap game. Not.
If we hadn’t mentioned these guys we’d have gotten complaints the other way. Nature of the game.
Sometimes what’s left out is more important. Yeah he mentions high priced players but he also leaves many out. He didn’t provide a full slate for your lazy butts but he did allow you a glimpse and the high priced players worth something today.
Do u still like Travis at 2B batting 8th also drury or Bourn now that the 2 mentions are out thnx for the free stuff!
Sometimes the chalk plays are the right plays. A quick glance at the lines would have backed up the articles suggestions for the most part. If I don’t want to stack an obvious team then I look for a different slate that leaves that game out
Many other “free picks” sites just give you a list of players with no explanation. These guys go out of their way to put real statistics behind their picks.
As readers after the games, our hindsight is 20/20. Look at Altuve today – his numbers screamed “play me”, but he ended up with a big, fat 6 on FD. Sure, I played him and got burned. I did my own research and also played B Lawrie (16), Odor (34.9) and Carpenter (22). 40% of the tournament entries had Altuve, so my contrarian picks (2, 3 and 7 percent) crushed them.
This article also recommended Bryant. He scored 34.6 on FD with 51% ownership. But, I also played Frazier (30.9) with 17% ownership as my “contrarian”, if we can even call it that. From what I’ve seen so far today, no other 3B came close. So, going with the crowd was the right call.
Of course, I’ll only brag about the $75 I won in 5 $1 tournaments and not the lineups that lost in the other 13 1$ tournaments. I’ve had more bottom 3% finishes than I care to admit. But, I can tell you that probably 80% of what I’ve learned about DFS was found in these free articles and I can find my own value and contrarian picks instead of having them spoon-fed to me. Playing only the 300+ player tournaments, I am at a net positive for the year, and I have the DFSR free content to thank for that.
Please check todays picks. You post yesterday’s pick (7/04/16) Thanks!
I have been reading Dougs picks for two years. Shipped Fanduel twice and have won over $25,000 and I would consider myself a pretty novice player.
levei446
Ryan