Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/19/16

 

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have an 11 game main slate with game times ranging from 1:10 to 2:15 eastern time, due to the NBA finals at night. Make sure to check out our other articles as they will touch on some more pitching options, tournament stacks and some guys to target for the long ball! Thanks for the read and let's get right into the top options at each position.

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PITCHER

Jacob deGrom FD 10400 DK 11300
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @NYM
FD - 39.61 DK - 21.71

We are going to start off the slate and pitcher position with Jacob DeGrom. While some may be worried about his strikeout numbers decreasing and his walks decreasing, I am going to chalk it up to variance as the rest of his numbers are on par with past years. With a combined career wOBA of .265, a 3.32 SIERA and a 28.2% hard contact rate, you can be assured that DeGrom is as elite as they get. The Mets are taking on a Braves team today that is a little bit of a weird match up for a righty. While they are still one of the worst offenses as a whole against righties, they also only strikeout 19.2% of the time, which is 22nd in the majors. That being said, the Braves severely lack both power and speed which prohibits their ability to put together a big inning. While DeGrom is not my favorite target for tournaments due to the strikeout factor, he is far and away my favorite option in cash games. Let's take a look at my two favorite tournament options, David Price and Kenta Maeda.

David Price FD 10200 DK 11000
Opponent - SEA (Walker) Park - @BOS
FD - 37.11 DK - 20.14

Moving on now from a cash game target to a tournament option, we are going to take a look at Davis Price taking on the Seattle Mariners at home in Fenway Park. While Fenway is definitely a worry, this match up with the Mariners is rather great. Thus far into 2016, the Mariners have held a .320 team wOBA against southpaws that is intensely inflated by a 17.3% HR/FB rate. With a 29% team hard contact rate, you can expect some regression from the Mariners as a whole against southpaws as most of their top hitters are left handed. David Price on the other hand, is also in line for some positive regression as he is currently sitting with a 4.52 ERA and a 3.27 xFIP. Price has been a top 5 pitcher for years on end and his peripherals look no different this season. Let other get scared off of him and take advantage of his low ownership in tournaments. If he can get around Cruz, Guttierez and Lee, Price is in a prime spot to rack up strikeouts and an easy win.

Kenta Maeda FD 8900 DK 10700
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @LAD
FD - 36.45 DK - 20.05

Lastly at pitcher, we are going to look at a guy that is very much in play for both cash games and tournaments. Sitting at only $8900 on FanDuel, it is going to be very challenging to not plug him into nearly all of your contests. Maeda has dominated since coming to the USA with a .260 wOBA and 27.2% hard contact rate. While the temperature in LA certainly does worry me a bit, this match up is still very much elite. The Brewers have struck out at an absurd 26% rate against righties, the most in the league by over a full percentage point. With guys like Braun, Villar and Carter in the lineup, you can lock Maeda in for 6 strikeouts with the upside for much more. Maeda should be in line for an easy win tonight and he has a great floor and ceiling. You can feel comfortable with Maeda in both cash games and tournaments on all sites.

CATCHER

Stephen Vogt FD 2700 DK 3700
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.83

On to the catcher position, we are going to start with Stephen Vogt taking on the Angels and their gas can Jered Weaver. While Weaver has gotten away with an 83 MPH fastball for some time now, that time is slipping away. While the velocity dropped a few years ago, his movement and deception has fallen off now. Yikes. Weaver has exhibited a .392 combined wOBA and while that seems unsustainable, his peripherals suggest it is rather accurate. Vogt has been one of the better hitting catchers in the league for a couple years now as evident by his .361 wOBA against right handers. Vogt gives you upside and safety at a position that lacks both.

Evan Gattis FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.81 DK - 8.19

The Astros are going to be very popular plays today and rightfully so. While Brandon Finnegan has some decent surface statistics such as ERA, a 4.79 xFIP suggests he is going to see some severe regression very soon. Tonight could certainly be that night as the Astros have started hitting lately, especially against southpaws. Evan Gattis, however, has been good all season against left handers with a .343 wOBA and a very high 37.2% hard contact rate. Gattis has been scattered around the batting order and I obviously prefer him more if he is in the 4 or 5 spot. Gattis is definitely more of a tournament play as he is a boom or bust guy by nature.

Consider - Victor Martinez, Brian McCann

 

FIRST BASE

David Ortiz FD 4400 DK 5500
Opponent - SEA (Walker) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.28 DK - 10.74

As always, first base is absolutely loaded and my favorite of all is going to David "Big Papi" Ortiz. Ortiz and the Red Sox are facing off with Taijuan Walker in Fenway Park. Yay. Walker relies a ton on Safeco Field and its friendly dimensions as evident by his road wOBA of .383 compared to his home wOBA of .268. He will be in hitter friendly Fenway park today and we all know how dominant Ortiz has been this year, especially against right handers. While it is rather obvious just how dominant he has been, a .495 wOBA against righties is just blasphemous, and yes, unsustainable. I look for Ortiz to have another big game today against these Mariners and nobody will blink an eye. I am comfortable with Papi in all formats as he is not reliant on home runs to score fantasy points.

Albert Pujols FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.64

Pujols on the other hand, is the definition of power reliant at this point in his career. That being said, the chances of that power coming out to play are pretty high today against the left hander Eric Surkamp. Surkamp has been absolutely atrocious this year against righties with a .435 wOBA and 4 home runs allowed in only 21 innings. While you may think those numbers should come up, his peripherals from several years suggest he is just a guy who is going to struggle and will end up being a bullpen lefty specialist. Pujols hit 40 homers last year and while we may not see that ever again, he is going to get a ton out of the park this year. He could run into 1 or 2 today and I would not be surprised. Pujols is a strict tournament play for me as he is very power reliant, as mentioned.

Consider - Anthony Rizzo, Mike Napoli

 

SECOND BASE

Jose Altuve FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.04 DK - 10.5

Here is our second of 3 Astros. I am sure you could guess who the next one is (Hint - It's not Jason Castro).Altuve has 13 hits in his last 10 games and is seeing the ball extremely well. As I mentioned, Finnegan is a guy who is going to regress mightily over the next weeks and today should definitely be one of those games. While Altuve is a little guy, he has a ton of upside as evident by his 10 home runs, 2 doubles and 18 stolen bases. If Altuve hits a single, it can easily turn into a triple. He is going to be my top option in all formats and I will be doing whatever I can to get him in my lineup.

Logan Forsythe FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - SF (Peavy) Park - @TB
FD - 8.34 DK - 6.65

While I am going to try my best to get Altuve in all of my lineups, Forsythe is going to be my fallback guy in tournaments. Forsythe has been pretty cold this year and while it does worry me a bit, those worries are trumped by the disaster that is named Jake Peavy. Peavy has been absolutely horrible this season with a wOBA of .362 and a hard contact rate allowed of 34.2% to right handers. Forsythe is going to be extremely low owned tonight and makes for a terrific option in tournaments, especially on FanDuel where is $2800.

Consider - Jean Segura, Jed Lowrie

 

SHORTSTOP

Corey Seager FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.62

While the Dodgers game is not in the main slate on FanDuel, it is still in the all day slate and main slate. Seager has been absolutely great in his rookie year with 15 home runs and 29 total bases as well as a .357 wOBA against righties. The Dodgers will be taking on the Milwaukee Brewers and Matt Garza, a right hander that has struggled against both lefties and righties. Since 2014, Garza has exhibited a .362 wOBA against lefties that is backed up by a 32.9% hard contact rate. Seager is a great play in all formats, however, the next guy we look at is going to be preferred.

Carlos Correa FD 4000 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.44 DK - 9.28

What more is there to say about the position these Houston Astros bats are in. They are facing a bad lefty in right handed hitter friendly park. Correa has been dominant against lefties over the past year and a half with a .382 wOBA. He will only get better from here on out as well as he approaches his prime age. Correa makes for a terrific play in both cash games and tournaments.

Consider - Manny Machado, Eduardo Nunez

 

THIRD BASE

Maikel Franco FD 2800 DK 3200
Opponent - ARI (Bradley) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.83 DK - 7.6

Third base is a very interesting position tonight and I expect the ownership percentages to be spread out among various players. My favorite of all is going to be Maikel Franco who is facing off with Archie Bradley in Citizens Bank Park. Franco is a reverse splits righty, which means he hits righties better than southpaws. Since 2014, Franco has hit righties to the tune of a .331 wOBA. While some don't recognize this park as hitter friendly, it has ranked 5th in the league over the past 5 seasons for power. Franco is a great play in both cash games and tournaments, on both sites as he is very under-priced and he will be very low owned.

Justin Turner FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.26

Justin Turner has been on absolute fire over the last 2 games with 3 home runs and 5 total hits. While that doesn't matter for today, it is always great to see a guy swinging the bat well. Turner has hit righties better than he has lefties as evidenced by his .348 wOBA against righties over the last 3 seasons. As I mentioned with Corey Seager, Matt Garza is a pitcher who has struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate. Turner is a great play in all formats, however, he is very highly priced which will make him lower owned than he should be.

Consider - Kris Bryant, Jhonny Peralta

 

OUTFIELD

Mike Trout FD 4000 DK 4800
Opponent - OAK (Surkamp) Park - @OAK
FD - 14.3 DK - 11.15

This one is just very very obvious tonight. Mike Trout is one of the 5 best hitters in the league and do not argue with me about that. Unless you want too, then go ahead. Dating back to his debut in 2011, Trout has posted a .393 wOBA against southpaws and as I mentioned, Eric Surkamp is one of the worst left handers in the league. While this ballpark is far from ideal, Trout is not power reliant.

Matt Holliday FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @STL
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.93

While the Cardinals are a team that I am very interested in as a whole, the individual plays are just not making the cut for me in cash games nor tournaments. That being said, Holliday is going to be the top guy for me on the Cards offense. They are taking on a southpaw in Martin Perez, a pitcher who has struggled against right handers for the better part of 5 seasons. Throughout his career, Perez has exhibited a .333 wOBA against righties and his 4.44 xFIP suggests a little bit of regression off of that number, which is already happening this year. Holliday, however, has been a very consistent hitter for a decade and this year is no different as he has sported a .457 wOBA against southpaws.

David Peralta FD 2400 DK 5400
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.94 DK - 8.67

Lastly at outfield, we have David Peralta facing off with the Phillies and right hander Zachary Eflin. Eflin debuted last week and was absolutely thrashed by the Blue Jays as they scored 8 runs and hit 3 home runs in 2.2 innings. While Eflin doesn't profile as being THAT BAD, he profiles as a guy that will definitely struggles he gets acclimated into the major league ecosystem. David Peralta on the other hand, is beyond acclimated, especially against righties. Dating back to his debut in 2014, Peralta has demolished lefties with a .378 wOBA that is backed up by a 34.6% hard contact rate. While I would prefer this game to be played in Chase Field, Citizens Bank is no slouch for left handed power.

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