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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/17/16
Welcome back to another TGIF edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. There is one afternoon game with the Pirates in Chicago to face the Cubs leaving us with 14 games in a busy evening slate. The pitching is a bit thin at the top but plenty of value in the mid tier making it a great night to load up on the bats. Let's take a look.
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PITCHER
Matt Harvey FD 8700 DK 10300
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @NYM
FD - 36.33 DK - 20.08
Harvey has returned to form and has recorded three straight quality starts. In those three starts he has limited opponents to a .121 average and has only allowed two earned in 20 innings pitched. He is coming off an outing where he struck out eight Brewers in a great matchup but unfortunately the offense couldn't get him the win. He will again get a great matchup facing the Braves who rank 29th in team wOBA(.285) vs. right handed pitching and have been striking out 19.4% of the time. Harvey is safe in all formats.
Lance McCullers FD 8700 DK 8900
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 37.75 DK - 20.19
Lance McCullers is an up and coming star in the majors but before he gets to that point he needs to harness his control. Outside of the absolutely horrible 6.15 BB/9 rate though, he has been near elite. He has brought his K rate up from 9.24 last season to a whopping 11.76 so far this year in six starts. He has increased the ground ball rate(46.5% to 59.3%) and while his 4.54 ERA is not great, the xFIP of 3.40 and BABIP of .384 suggests positive regression is coming. If he can limit the walks his high K upside can provide excellent value for DFS at his current price point under $9K on both sites. He will get a home matchup vs. the Reds who rank 26th in wOBA(.298) vs.right handed pitching while striking our 23.1% of the time.
Joe Ross FD 8500 DK 9400
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @SD
FD - 35.49 DK - 19.07
Joe Ross is another mid range option in a great spot o Friday night. He doesn't provide an elite K upside(7.41 K/9) but has pitched to a 3.01 ERA and has limited opponents to three earned runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts this season. He will get a terrific matchup in an elite pitchers park vs. a team in the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA(.278) and wRC+(75) vs. right handed pitching while strikign out over 24% of the time. He makes an excellent second pitcher option on DraftKings and also a nice option FanDuel with a high probability to pick up the win.
CATCHER
Evan Gattis FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.21
I wouldn't be using him in cash games as June has not been good to him but anytime he faces a lefty he is in play for GPP with his power upside. In fairly equal at bats he has hit close to 100 points better(.271) vs. southpaws with a 123 wRC+. He will be going up against Cincinnati and John Lamb and his low strikeout rate(4.71 K/9), high walk rate(3.64 BB/9) and awful 5.14 ERA so far in 2016. Lamb has also struggled mightily on the road giving up a .430 wOBA and is sitting with a 8.59 ERA.
Welington Castillo FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.93
Castillo is my top value catcher of the slate. His price is just too low for the matchup. He crushes left handed pitching(.474 wOBA/199 wRC+) and will see, probably the weakest southpaw he has faced all season. Adam Morgan has given up 27 earned runs including eight home runs in his last six starts for a horrid 7.52 ERA. He has struggled equally vs. left handed and right handed batters but has given up seven of his nine home runs to righties. Fire up Castillo in all formats.
FIRST BASE
Chris Davis FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.88 DK - 8.89
Davis will be happy to the Jays are coming to town starting Thursday as he tore them apart last week. He hit a home run(one against Sanchez) and had multiple RBI in all four games pushing his season totals to 16 HR, 39 RBI, and 47 runs scored. Davis strikes out over 30% of the time which take shim out of cash game consideration for me but with his enormous power upside is a fantastic play in tournaments.
Justin Smoak FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.47 DK - 7.91
He is a bit over priced on DraftKings but the projection system absolutely loves him on a PTS/$ basis over on FanDuel just over $3K. Smoak is a switch hitter and hits well from both sides but has much more power from the left side where he will hit on Friday vs. the Orioles and Mike Wright. He has been up and down this year due to his lower K rate (6.34 K/9) and high walk rate(3.39) which has got him into trouble on a few occasions. The Jays bats are really heating up and if Smoak remains in the five hole he will make a tremendous value at the first base position.
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve FD 4100 DK 5600
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.36 DK - 11.76
It's rare we get a top priced elite player right at the top of the PTS/$ value on the projection system. It makes sense though as Altuve contributes in all categories and is an absolute fantasy stud. He has the third best average in the majors at .346 and has added 10 HR, 38 RBI, 47 runs scored and 18 stolen bases. He obviously has success vs. both righties and lefties but is much better vs. southpaws with a .459 wOBA and 194 wRC+ this season. He is a great stand alone play or as a part of an Astros stack in tournaments.
Starlin Castro FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.79 DK - 7
Castro comes in at a value price on both sites and has been paying off his salary consistently since the calendar turned. He is hitting .302 in June with a 105 wRC+ and has added 2 HR's, 5 RBI, and 6 runs scored. He is a career .293 hitter vs. left handed pitching and has been hitting anywhere from third to sixth in the lineup. He makes a safe, low priced cash game option tonight.
SHORTSTOP
Carlos Correa FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.75 DK - 10.45
You guessed. Another Astro hitter in a great spot on Friday night. Correa is similarly priced as Altuve on FanDuel but comes at a nice discount on DraftKings as the 7th priced shortstop tonight. He isn't going to be as safe as Altuve as the average is at a disappointing .257 due to the strikeout rate increasing to 25.4% this season. He does provide value across many categories with a nice combination of power(8 HR) and speed(8 SB) and while he has struggled vs. left handed pitchers this season(.220 avg) it is a small sample size and he is coming off a season where he hit .274 vs. southpaws. The matchup vs. John Lamb will be hard to fade.
Ketel Marte FD 2400 DK 4000
Opponent - BOS (Elias) Park - @BOS
FD - 7.43 DK - 6.46
This pick hinges on his spot in the batting order as he has alternated between the top and bottom of the lineup for most of the season. He could still be considered on FanDuel in the mid $2K range but is over priced non DraftKings and should be avoided with better options in the same range. The OBP has been disappointing this year in large part to his low 3.5% walk rate which should get a boost tonight facing Roenis Elias who has a 3.5 BB/9 rate for his career and will be making his first start of the season.
THIRD BASE
Justin Turner FD 3100 DK 3300
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.42
Turner is a guy I feel safe with in cash games but feel he lacks the upside for tournaments as the Dodgers struggle to score runs. He hits in the two or three hole for the Dodgers giving him added value for run scoring potential. He is coming into this matchup on a bit of a roll with hits in three straight and four of his last five games with three multi hit efforts and has shown some power as well with three long balls in his last eight games. He is one of the projection systems top plays at third base on a PTS/$ basis.
Alex Rodriguez FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.08
He is definitely not the hitter he once was but he can still provide value for the DFS game if you pick and choose your spots carefully. The projection system feels tonight is one of those prime times to get your money in on A Rod. His high strikeout rate of 29.% and low walk rate of 5.6% matches up well against Pat Dean who walks close to three batters per nine innings and strikes out less than seven. If you are going to play A Rod you need to get him in your lineup when he faces a lefty like tonight as he is close to 40 points better vs. southpaws this season.
OUTFIELD
Yoenis Cespedes FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.74 DK - 9.11
Curtis Granderson FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.91
The Mets are one of the biggest favorites on the slate with Matt Harvey on the mound and the offense facing an inexperienced pitcher making his 2nd big league start. He started the season off in the bullpen for the Braves and struggled to a 6.17 ERA after giving up eight earned runs in just 11.2 innings. He has high K upside(10.8 K/9) but had a terrible 3.86 BB/9 rate. He went 4.1 innings in his first start vs. the Cubs giving up four hits and two earned runs while walking four. Cespedes and Granderson both make excellent targets who come with power upside. Cespedes has hit 16 HR with an elite 152 wRC+ and 41.8% hard hit ball rate while Granderson has struggled with his average(.223) but has added 12 long balls and a 40.1% hard hit ball rate. With other great stacking options in games with higher totals the Mets could be your sneaky GPP stack of the day at very low ownership.
Michael Saunders FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.26
Saunders has provided a nice power boost from the left side of the plate for the Jays in 2016. He is finally healthy(knock on wood) and producing the numbers that everyone has expected from the Canadian throughout his injury plagued career with the Mariners. He has 11 home runs, 23 RBI and 32 runs scored this year with an elite 156 wRC+ and has been the regular cleanup hitter. He will be relied on a bit more in the coming series as Jose Bautista was lifted from the game on Thursday night after crashing into the right field wall injuring his toe. No word on the length of his absence until after the results of the X-Rays. Saunders price is getting a little high for cash games, especially on DraftKings, but makes an excellent tournament choice in a top of the order Blue Jays stack.
Michael Bourn FD 2200 DK 3700
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 7.68 DK - 6.53
Since joining the D Backs in mid may, Bourn has seen mixed results with a .256 average but has been getting on base with an above average .330 OBP. He has been at his best when facing left handed pitchers as he is hitting .320 against them vs. a .226 mark against righties. He has also spent time at the leadoff spot vs. left handed pitchers and should only be considered on DraftKings if he is indeed back at the top of the order on Friday. At a low $2K price tag on FanDuel he can used as a punt play no matter where he hits in the order.
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59 Visitor Comments
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Next time you guys stack Boston I’m taking the opposing pitcher on a losing streak
right there with you pinky. although they suggested vmart and i wnet everyone else and payed dearly. tigers fan here as well. cortizone got conforto and vmart boosted
I’m pretty sure you’re suppose to do the opposite of what this site says. I continuously keep coming back here for help although it’s never helped me. Not 1 stinking time. It’s like they knew the bo six were gonna struggle. Making money off people by giving them the wrong info is wack.
Go back and look at yesterday’s write-up. Vmart, papi, miggy, castellanos, villar, Bryce, ajones and grandy all went yard. All mentioned in the picks article for the price of free99
You fools! Someone told you to stack the top scoring team in baseball against Tyler Wilson and you believed it????
Seriously, things like this happen in baseball and if you need someone to think for you and tell you that the Red Sox had a good match up yesterday, then maybe you should save your money.
Remember guys, the numbers may say one thing and suggest a player is good. But the pitchers and hitters are all human and big leaguers. A pitcher can’t get rocked every time he pitches and batters can’t have a great offensive night every night. The Reds Sox looked great on paper, but it just didn’t happen. That’s baseball and the life of DFS. On to today.
Baseball is volatile. I go in thinking this is the team in the best matchups and everything statistical to back it up, they still have to do what I think they are going to do.
I think u guys make awesome suggestions. Really turned my game around. Appreciate all the hard work. And of course ur optimizer is right on the money
6/16/16…..the day in which my investment in the optimizer paid for itself. Thankyou gentlemen and the ladies who let you do fantasy sports for a living. 24th out of 50,000!
I’ve been successfully stacking Red Sox since May (when they were cheap). By the numbers they were in one of there best spots of the season last night. Projection systems rely on numbers and they are right much of the time. Sometimes they are wrong and you have a terrible night, like I did last night. That’s what you sign up for when you play fantasy sports.
I think what the guys are getting at is that they want that little “something” above and beyond the Vegas lines. Anyone (I think) can read those and come up with a LU. I know I was running my core LU through the optimizer with a couple of open positions and it kept pushing Wieters on me. Sure, it went with the lines but I had to go with my gut and the upside of VMart for the same money and paid off in spades.
Looks like there is some French cries and Weineken’s this morning! Well I’ll pull a 180. First time listener to the pod cast yesterday- I changed two tourney lineups after hearing it and one put up 235 and the other 208 (on fanduel). Unfortunately they were mega tourneys against roughly 40,000 people but it still turned $3 into $25. I had Weiters over VMart in one lineup and if that were not the case one of those may have been a top 10. Guys great job on the podcast, very enjoyable and way better to hear verbally what you lean or deam a must start/universal lineup guy. I hope you guys record one today!
Cheers!
Salty today ! If you can’t afford to lose you can’t afford to play. Blame cast out usually belongs with the castor hahaha give these guys a break and say thank you for free advice your free will is yours! Good luck ! Remember Papi went year lol
These guys complaining obviously don’t understand how any of this works and should just stop playing dfs
The fact that people cry about an obvious Boston stack that didn’t pan out is laughable. Let’s blame the site for suggesting a Boston lineup vs Wilson!! How dare they! While we’re at it let’s blame Vegas (because they know nothing). If you don’t understand even the best DFS players lose 35% of the time and baseball has so much variance, you should stick to season long fanatsy.
I like the articles they post on here. I don’t care what people say but DFS is luck. Yes you can do research and base on historical stats you can predict this player will do well and so on, but if the player for example gets injured in the first inning then you are screwed. I read up on articles and get an idea of teams and players to stack but I do my own search and also I look at the crappy pitchers and just stack the top of the order against that crappy pitcher. I just think you can read on whatever article you want but in the end it is luck.
There are elements of luck for sure. But like most ventures (sports or not) one can put him/herself in advantageous situations (luck independent) that have a higher probability of success. For instance, if one were to stack a team against Kershaw, it won’t be bad luck when that team loses. The situations you mention above are indeed forms of bad luck, but if you believe they will happen to all users equally (good or bad) over the long term then you remove some luck pieces by having good process.
Thank you to all those with POSITIVE comments. We can only do the research and provide the content we feel is the best for the upcoming day by the stats and factors we are given. Baseball is the most volatile sport BY FAR and there will be losing streaks and times when obvious things don’t work out. Form your OWN opinions and don’t just rely on one persons picks or thoughts. That is what makes this fun. NOT complaining about it and blaming OTHER people. Cheers all!
Thanks for the VMart recommendation, paid off nicely.
VMart was righteous last PM but the play of the night that I haven’t seen mentioned was TOR. It took the upper tier GPP $.
Thank you guys, I came out 7th out of 48,169 in the $125k MLB Squeeze with a score of 276 and I know nothing about baseball (in fact I hate baseball lol). I rely on this site for research. My LU consisted of Sabathia, VMartinez, Ortiz, Dozier, Rendon, Machado, AdamJones, Harper, Pilar. With the exception of Pilar and maybe Dozier, all these players were listed either in the articles or mentioned on the podcast so honestly don’t know why people are complaining. you have to read each article posted here (not just the initial writeup) and listen to the podcast.
BOSTON STACK LOL. YOU ALL HAVE TO DO BETTER.
TODAY I MEAN!! MANY PPL ARE UPSET WITH THAT!!?
Can’t tell if this is sarcastic or not!
it is allot of luck. usually i will throw a lineup in quick just to make sure i get in the contest. i dont even look at the players, just keep it under the salary. then i change it before lockin. well i forgot to change it and finished 4th out of almost 300. luck.
@Kwasi Boakye
You make a great point some people haven’t realized. We do the main article write up the night before and have limited inputs(vegas lines, nightly results, projections). We do this main article early to give the readers a heads up of some of the top plays for next day. We then do all the other articles to keep you up to date with the news and change of projections.
Thanks for pointing that out.
Started optimizer and articles 6 days ago… Came out ahead 5 out of 6 days. Thanks DFSR!! Articles and podcasts are great! Good luck today!
Beautiful! Been a great week for sure. Sorry no pod today, traveling. Back Monday
This site is remarkable, especially considering it’s free. Their suggestions are grounded in a myriad of stats coupled with some gut reactions. I build my line ups first, than visit this site (among a few others) to compare and tweak. You guys have more than helped me over the last few years. Cheers and thanks for your hard work!
Thanks so much for the kind words. We try to have a process and give the reasoning behind our picks which are essentially reverse-engineered from our system. Do we make mistakes? Sure, human after all. But we’re proud of the work we are doing here.
I should of took Tyler Wilson. But thanks guys V Mart and Rendon came up big for me! And Granderson!
Yup. Last night was excellent from the system lineups. Been hot over last week plus, especially DK
these arse kissers^^^^ LMAO they had conflicting picks like they usually do and error on prices. look they run the optimizer and talk about whoever shows up. run a rotogrinder optimizer and youll see the same picks today goldie, saunders, houston, etc. yall funny
Thanks for reading!
Man…before I started reading theses picks, I was cashing in about 50% of the time, now I barely cash in…im going back to my own picks…thanks but no thanks!
Seems odd considering the success of our MLB system especially in the short term. But thanks for reading!
@Doug Norrie
Have you guys given any consideration to enhancing the lineup tool to produce different lineups for cash games vs. GPP? I think that would be a spectacular feature and a great value for paying the premium subscription. Thanks!
We discussed this over the past week actually. In some ways, stacking handles this for tournaments as that is a clear way to win in MLB GPPs. But the other piece we are considering is toggling between models in that we would use more work on standard deviations to imply safety of a particular player (projected outcome).
I’m looking for a punt and Danny Worth fits nicely into my lineup. Any idea if he will he be playing for HOU today? He was batting 2nd in their last game on Wednesday.
glad to hear it. Looking forward to any additional features you guys come up with!
I took wilson last nite on DK based on the fact that boston cant be gods every game. That and wilsons numbers showed a chance of turning it around based on carrer stats. He was 0.6% ownned. Lol. Anyways, had a good nite. I’d like to say thanks to the DFSR team for all there advice. You save me a lot of time researching some days. And yeh luck is atleast half of it. That and fading everynow and then aint the worst idea.
All of u guys talking negative, please just leave these guys alone. You’re filling up the comment section with negative BS. You’re acting like children. Maybe u are children. I don’t know but these guys are the real deal. I’ll be honest, I’m losing more than winning in MLB and I subscribe the full optimizer but when I lose its usually because I do something stupid like starting a player that I thought was better than the optimizer showed. They’re right a lot more often then they are young. These guys sincerely want us to make money. So please stop whining. It’s pissing all of us regular people off
on that note whose going with Matt Harvey tonight in cash games? Or should I save the money and just lock tanaka and McCullers in and worry only about hitters
Let me ask u this what is the difference between gpp play and cash play I mean I set my lineup to score as many points as,possible but some reason not good at that what is this optimizer u guys talk about any help would be appreciated and I’ll never complain over free info
Cash line-ups are built for double up type contest where you only have to be in top 50% to cash in. They are considered safe line ups. GPP or tournament only about 1/5 win. Much harder so you have to take chances with “punts” or players with huge, but inconsistent upsides. Fading, stacking, what ever your strategy. Last night on FD you needed 138 points to cash out in double up, gpp was 165. Most of this I learned right on this blog so keep reading!
@James
The lineup optimizer comes with the paid service
What’s the optimizer say about Hamels tonight?
Yeahhh….I’m thinking a Boston stack today…LOL
Thank u I appreciate that
I appreciate the time and effort you put into providing these articles. I bet it is tough to do all these research and time-consuming but in the end all the hard work pays off . What I meant about luck is that things happen that one cannot do anything about. I agree doing research and knowing your information will give you an advantage. Keep up the great work I love reading your articles. I must say every day every the keep up the great work I love reading your articles. I must say every day i read them and will be getting into the optimizer once New York is allowed to play DFS
I placed 20th in the big FD event for $250 on a $3 bet. Would of been more if I had vmart in that lineup. Used the optimizer mixed with my knowledge. The optimizer is good at finding low end options. Plus the mets is suggested. You can’t be mad they give helpful advice. You need to know when to change certain players to win. Don’t blame them bos was a huge favorite and didn’t do well. That’s baseball. As always guys thanks you know I’ve been following you for years now.
Also a few weeks ago based on their pitching suggesting I cashed for 2k. Baseball is a long season and bad weeks happen.
If anyone has a lineup that will get over 170 points let me see it I have never gotten over 170 not sure what I’m doing wrong I look at this put in the guys I think are going to do good after reading your article if anyone can help me it’s very frustrating I love baseball and this makes me feel like I know nothing about it lol so anyone want to help email me mjsullivan0415@gmail.com thanks
How would somebody know that James Sullivan? You should be playing roulette if u think that’s predictable. What a stupid question. Save your money
What do you think of this lineup
Z. Davies
V. Martinez
E. Encarnacion
N. Walker
N. Arenado
K. Marte
C. Gomez
S. Choo
A. Hicks
Sarah … Lineup looks good.
Joe LMAO…anyone have a 225pt lineup they can share???
Boston Stack Today Will pay off from Yesterday Losers
Which is better option tonight:
Asdrubal Cabrera or Jonathan Villar?
Wow Saunders nice call