Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/4/16

Back at it again for another busy Saturday of MLB at DFSR. There's a lot to dissect with some chalk plays that are chalk for a reason and our projection system helps find value within the 15 game slate.   When you're done reading the article be sure to check back for our secondary articles (Stacks, Pitchers, News and Weather Report) published throughout the day. Good luck!

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PITCHER

Early Slate

Jason Hammel FD 9300 DK 8700
Opponent - ARI (Escobar) Park - @CHC
FD - 37.38 DK - 20

Jason Hammel is on pace to have far and away the best year of his career, currently at 6-1 and sporting a 2.09 ERA. Hammel faced the Diamondbacks in his first start of the year and struck out six while surrendering just one run over six innings. Arizona ranks sixth in MLB in strikeouts and Hammel K's 7.9 batters per nine innings. The Cubs' righty exited his last start early with a hamstring cramp, so as long as he's healthy (all indications are yes) he should also be plenty rested heading into Saturday.

Junior Guerra FD 7200 DK 6800
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 45.99 DK - 24.98

Want to go cheaper at pitcher? Hello, Junior Guerra. The rookie presents great value and has been very serviceable in his six starts this season. Guerra has gone six innings in every start, except for when he threw five shutout frames against the Braves. He lit up the Cubs for 11 strikeouts and is just shy of nine K's per nine innings in 2016. Finally, the match up is prime for Guerra as the Phillies are among the league's basement dwellers with a .230 team batting average and their OPB of .286 ranks them dead last.

Also Consider: Chris Sale (CWS at DET)

 

Late Slate

Clayton Kershaw FD 13500 DK 14100
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @LAD
FD - 54.65 DK - 34.47

Chalk? Who cares? Clayton Kershaw is a complete monster and we all know it. If you are thinking of veering away from Kershaw in cash games, you should probably have your head examined. The best pitcher in the game is striking out a stupid 10.9 batters per nine innings and he has not gone less than seven innings all season. Kershaw's WHIP is 0.65 and I'm just going to stop rattling off stats there because we have other picks to get to. Oh, and he gets to face the Braves who have the worst team batting average in the Majors. That's not even fair. Play Kershaw, let's move along.

 

CATCHER

Early Slate

Francisco Cervelli FD 2700 DK 2900
Opponent - LAA (Tropeano) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.46 DK - 6.67

If you're looking to go cheap at catcher, something I would strongly recommend, Francisco Cervelli may be your target (if he plays). Cervelli has cooled off from his torrid April but he's still having a good year and he handles righties well with a .276 average over the last two seasons.  The major thing here is to see if Cervelli is in the lineup after being hit in the foot on Wednesday. If he plays, a bat in the middle of an MLB lineup for $2,700/$2,900 is nothing to sneeze at.

Late Slate

Salvador Perez FD 2700 DK 4200
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @CLE
FD - 8.19 DK - 6.41

Ned Yost has hinted that Salvador Perez could reenter the lineup this weekend, giving back the Royals a red-hot bat. In his last seven games, Perez was hitting .444 and over his previous 15 games posted three homers and 10 RBI. Perez has already seen Josh Tomlin once in 2016 and the catcher went 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles. Tomlin was shelled last time out against the Rangers as eight runs crossed the plate in his 3.2 innings of work.

Also Consider: Brian McCann (NYY at BAL)

 

FIRST BASE

Early Slate

David Ortiz FD 4500 DK 5500
Opponent - TOR (Stroman) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.72 DK - 10.3

What Big Papi is doing in 2016 just can't be ignored - it's simply ridiculous. Somehow this past week has been even better. David Ortiz is hitting .346 and slugging 1.000% with five homers in six games. He also sees Marcus Stroman for the second time in a week after going 1-for-3 with a double in that match up. The rest of the Red Sox roughed up Stroman for seven runs in 5.1 innings in that game and will have plenty of confidence against him on Saturday. Ortiz (what's stronger than crushes?) demolishes right handed pitching with a .306 average, 43 homers, and .432 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Also Consider: Edwin Encarnacion (TOR at BOS)

 

Late Slate

Chris Davis FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.69

Davis' average is down but his power numbers are just fine. He has 10 homers this year, including eight against right handers while Ivan Nova has surrendered one long ball in each of his last five starts. Davis is slugging .566% against righties and has an above average wOBA of .394. Davis owned Nova in 2015, going 9-of-29 (.310) with three homers and 10 RBI.

Adrian Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.09

Another first baseman on a hot streak as Adrian Gonzalez and the Dodgers face Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves. Gonzalez has an .842 OPS versus righties since 2015 and is hitting .400 overall in his last seven games. This season has the veteran hitting .307 with four homers against right handers while Foltynewicz struggles against lefties, surrendering four homers along with a .308 batting average against.

 

SECOND BASE

Early Slate

Ben Zobrist FD 3400 DK 5100
Opponent - ARI (Escobar) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.04

Allow me to oversimplify - Ben Zobrist is good, Edwin Escobar is really bad. Digging deeper, Zobrist is coming off of a May in which he hit .406, six homers, 25 RBI, and a laundry list of other impressive stats. Against southpaws in 2015 and 2016 Zobrist has a .335 batting average, .945 OPS, and .405 wOBA. Escobar's first Major League start was a drubbing in which he allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs over 3.1 innings against the Astros.

Also Consider: Scooter Gennett (MIL at PHI)

Late Slate

Jason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.95

Jason Kipnis is off to a good start in June, hitting 4-for-10 with a pair of extra base hits. He also sees Ian Kennedy for the second time this year and plays in one of the most friendly hitters parks of 2016. Kipnis excels against righties with a .320 batting average since 2015 as well as an .883 OPS and .378 wOBA.

 

Jurickson Profar FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - SEA (Karns) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.89
Jurickson Profar is making the most of his trip to the big leagues, finally fulfilling his #1 prospect status. Profar has at least one hit in all six games he has played, including a .571 slugging percentage and .929 OPS. The problem for Profar is Rougned Odor is due to return from suspension Saturday and many expect Profar to be optioned back to Triple A. If the Rangers keep him with the big club because of his hot bat, play him while you can. Update: While writing this, Profar just went deep, it would be a shame to send him down.

SHORTSTOP

Early Slate

Carlos Correa FD 3800 DK 3400
Opponent - OAK (Hill) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.42 DK - 8.54

Carlos Correa's average is on the rise with a .292 mark over the last seven games in addition to eight RBI. He gets his second look at Rich Hill on Saturday afternoon after drawing a pair of walks against Hill last month.  Correa's .279 BABIP versus lefties should improve moving forward and the Astros' shortstop is coming off of a 2-for-5 night with two runs scored and one RBI.

Also Consider: Javier Baez (CHC vs. ARI)

Late Slate

Manny Machado FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.55 DK - 9.9

Manny Machado is another recommended piece for an Orioles stack against Ivan Nova. Machado's line against righties since 2015 includes 41 homers, a .925 OPS, and a .392 wOBA. He's hitting .293 with three homers and a .552 slugging percentage over the last 15 games. Machado saw Nova once last year and went 2-for-5 with a solo homer. The Orioles have been hot as of late and with their lineup as well as Nova on the mound, I will probably have a few, especially Machado, in the mix on Saturday.

Brad Miller FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.44 DK - 8.46

Brad Miller has hits in five of his last six games and is coming off one of the best months of his career, averaging .301 with four homers and 13 RBI. On the other hand, Ervin Santana had a rough May and in 2016 righties are hitting .304 off the southpaw. Adding to the trends, Miller is also hitting north of .300 on the road.

 

THIRD BASE

Early Slate

Kris Bryant FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - ARI (Escobar) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.67

Yep, let's pick on Edwin Escobar some more in what should be the most popular stack of the day. Kris Bryant has six homers in two weeks, including two in the last three games.  With hits in nine of his last ten, a recent power surge, and a favorable righty/lefty matchup, Bryant has plenty of upside to pay off his high salary  in what should be a rout.

Also Consider: Travis Shaw (BOS vs. TOR)

Late Slate

Pedro Alvarez FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - NYY (Nova) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.48

Like so many of the Orioles, Pedro Alvarez thrives against righties. In 177 games versus right handers since 2015, Alvarez has 28 homers and a .790 OPS. Alvarez is riding a four game hitting streak and with the other O's projected to score well (see Machado & Davis) he should be in position to drive in some runs on Saturday.

Adrian Beltre FD 3600 DK 4100
Opponent - SEA (Karns) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.48 DK - 8.08

Adrian Beltre had a huge Friday night with a homer and five RBI as he's now hit three long balls in his last seven games. This game has one of the highest run totals on the board and the Rangers are averaging 6.75 runs in their last eight contests. Beltre's seven game hitting streak (10-of-11) and the projected run total help me to endorse Beltre has being one of the safer options in his price range.

OUTFIELD

Early Slate

Bryce Harper FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - CIN (Straily) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.68 DK - 11.32

I know he's had a down year, but Bryce Harper remains one of the best players in the game. As a Met fan, that really hurt to type. Anyway, over the last two seasons Harper has 46 homers, a 1.120 OPS, and .458 wOBA against righties. Harper does have hits in five of his last six games, and faces Dan Straily who has been just OK in each of his last two starts, giving up a homer in each. You never know when Harper will break out and our projection system likes him on Saturday.

Melky Cabrera FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 9.44 DK - 7.39

Adam Eaton FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 10.18 DK - 8.38

Thanks for the points Mike Pelfrey. The Tigers pitcher has allowed three multi-homerun games in his last five outings and has not a had a quality start since April 15. OK, let's get to Melky Cabrera and Adam Eaton. Both have struggled as of late, but the two leading White Sox hitters have a prime chance to score points against a soft right hander.

Also Consider: Giancarlo Stanto (MIA vs. NYM) & Corey Dickerson (TB at MIN)

Late Slate

Mitch Moreland FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - SEA (Karns) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.59

Leaning on the projection system for a value play as Mitch Moreland has been mired in a slump as of late. We talked about the projected run total and the Rangers offense in the Beltre pick so Moreland should continue to have RBI opportunities.  Moreland numbers should trend upwards towards his career marks and with the Rangers scoring runs it's a good time to buy low on the Texas outfielder.

Also Consider: Adam Jones (BAL vs. NYY)

 

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