Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces  - Dean & Deluca Invitational

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Dean & Deluca Invitational

Colonial Country Club - Fort Worth, Texas

Par 70 - 7,204 Yards

 

Another exciting finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson this past weekend saw Sergio Garcia beat out Brooks Koepka on the first playoff hole at the TPC Four Seasons Resort. For Garcia, it has been a long grueling wait to grab that 9th PGA Tour title which ties him with Seve Ballesteros for the most wins on Tour as a Spanish born player. It wasn't a cake walk by any means as Sergio put two ball sin the water on the front nine Sunday but shot even par on the back nine to sneak into a playoff. Koepka gave it away in the playoff by putting his tee shot in the water and then mysteriously coming up 10-15 yards short on his approach shot after dropping. Pretty sure he packed it in before his tee shot even landed in the water. It was also perfect timing for the win for Garcia as the summer stretch is about to begin with three major championships all within a two month span. Could Sergio finally break through with a major win? Stay tuned!

This week the PGA Tour travels just 30 miles West to Fort Worth for the 2016 Dean & Deluca Invitational from Colonial Country Club. The course is the longest running host site of and tournament on the PGA Tour after arriving way back in 1946. The course is a Par 70 that stretches 7,204 yards and is made up of very tight fairways and smallish green. With tight fairways and a short course we will first be looking at our accuracy type players. I don't have Driving Accuracy on the cheatsheet but have decided to use Good Drive % instead. The average for fairways hit here is usually around 55% so I think it is more predictive to look for guys who are accurate but can also get to the green when they miss the fairway. With the smaller than average greens it will be important to not only hit the greens but to get it close to have a shot at birdie so I will be weighting Proximity a little heavier than GIR this week. Also, with any Par 70 course I will be weighting Par 4 Scoring Average high as well and as always Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Putting will be key stats. All key stats are listed below.

 

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Good Drive %
• Proximity
• Par 4 Scoring Average
• Birdie or Better %
• Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting

 

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High End Targets ($9,000+)

Jordan Spieth
Vegas Odds - 7/1
Draftkings - $12,800
Fantasy Aces - $6,200

The world #2 is the top player in the field this week and is a staggering $1,500 more than next priced golfer on DraftKings. While he has not been his elite self as of late, the gap in salary should create a low ownership for Jordan as most will take the savings and build off DJ. I am a balanced cash game player and never use the top guys but for GPP's I will be overweight on Spieth this week. He has played at Colonial three times(each of the last 3 years) and finished T7, T14 and an impressive T2 last year. Look at the stats and you will see his weakness this year has been the Proximity(112th) where it was ranked excellent in 2015(26th). His putter hasn't been near as hot either but he is still sitting at a respectable 32nd in Strokes Gained Putting. Look everywhere else and you really won'y find a better fit. He is accurate off the tee, leads the Tour in Par 4 Scoring and Birdie or Better % and is an excellent Scrambler(70th in 2016 but 4th in 2015). He was in contention through three rounds last week before a poor Sunday but I feel he is getting close to another win as we approach the finall three majors.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 16
• Good Drive % - 34
• Proximity - 112
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 1
• Birdie or Better % - 1
• Scrambling - 70
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 32

 

Kevin Chappell
Vegas Odds - 28/1
Draftkings - $9,600
Fantasy Aces - $5,350

Chappell is far and away my favorite cash game play in the top tier this week. He comes into this event sitting 5th in the Fedex Cup standings and has been on a really good run lately with four Top 10 finishes in his last six events. He has also made the cut in seven of his last eight tournaments. Looking at his statistical ranks he fits the course perfectly. He ranks 10th in SG:T2G and Top 50 in Prox, Par 3 Scoring, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, BoB% and 52nd in Scrambling. He has played here five times and after missing the cut in his first trip in 2011 has made the cut four straight years wit finishes of 41st, 54th, 10th and 19th last season. Look for him to carry his current momentum over into this week where he has had previous success. He is safe in all formats.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 10
• Good Drive % - 76
• Proximity - 48
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 33
• Birdie or Better % - 26
• Scrambling - 52
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 163

 

 

Matt Kuchar
Vegas Odds - 12/1
Draftkings - $11,000
Fantasy Aces - $5,950

I was really torn between three guys for my final top tier pick(Kuch, ZJ, Reed). I ended up leaning for the more expensive option for multiple reasons. First of all, he is coming in playing with confidence with back to back 3rd place finishes and has three Top 10's in his last four events. He has also not missed a cut since the Arnold Palmer Invitational back in March which is his only missed cut of the year. Looking at his weighted statistics he is a much better fit than ZJ and Reed as well. All three are very respectable tee to green but looking at Good Drive %, it's Kuch for the win ranked 35th. The other big factor statistically for me his the Par 4 Scoring. Kuchar ranks 12th while ZJ and Reed are tied for 85th which explains their current form. I listed Zj and Reed below beside also consider but for the money this week I am going with Kuchar.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 14
• Good Drive % - 35
• Proximity - 56
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 12
• Birdie or Better % - 24
• Scrambling - 31
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 56

 

Also Consider - Zach Johnson, Patrick Reed

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $9,000)

Jason Dufner
Vegas Odds - 33/1
Draftkings - $8,400
Fantasy Aces - $5,100

Dufner is another guy I will be using in cash games this week and will also have some expsoure in GPP as he has upside to win here. He has played here seven times in his career, making the cut in five trips including each of the last four years. Starting in 2012 he has alternated great and good finishes with a 2nd in 2012, 46th in 2013, 2nd in 2014, and 43rd last year. The difference in those performances? Putting. The same can be said for this season. When he putts well he finishes with a solid score. His SG:P stat looks pretty awful(168) but dig a little deeper and that number is slightly skewed by the awful four tournament stretch he had back in February. He has made eight cuts in his last nine tournaments with only missed cut being the Masters. He is also coming off his best finish in two months after finishing the Byron Nelson with a T24.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 29
• Good Drive % - 21
• Proximity - 41
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 23
• Birdie or Better % - 18
• Scrambling - 163
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 168

 

 

Roberto Castro
Vegas Odds - 66/1
Draftkings - $7,600
Fantasy Aces - $4,600

One of my top value plays of the week sitting right at the mid $7K range on DraftKings. He is an accuracy player who ranks 25 tee green, 13th in Good Drive %, 20th in GIR, 21st in Bogey Avoidance and scores well on all the Pars(Par 3-56th, Par 4-12th, Par 5-67th). He is a golfer I will have in my cash games this week as he also ranks 13th in scoring average before the cut and is coming off an impressive 2nd place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. He has now made the cut in five of his last six events and sits with 12 made cuts on the season in 16 events played. His weakness is his putting which will keep him from winning but that doesn't stop him from churning out cuts made and racking up points for cash game lineups.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 25
• Good Drive % - 13
• Proximity - 101
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 12
• Birdie or Better % - 63
• Scrambling - 81
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 175

 

 

William McGirt
Vegas Odds - 80/1
Draftkings - $7,000
Fantasy Aces - $4,550

This $7K range is absolutely filled with value this week and McGirt is another example of this. He checks every box this week as he fits the course great ranked 33rd tee to green, 22nd in Good Drive%, 23 in Par 4 Scoring, 50th in BoB% and 40th in Scrambling. Oh ya he is also ranked 38th in Strokes Gained Putting. He comes in with some momentum having made four straight cuts on Tour including a Top 10 and a Top 20 finish. His course history is also favorable as he has played here five times making the cut in four of them. He is another golfer I will trust in cash games and will also have exposure in GPP at his low price.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 33
• Good Drive % - 22
• Proximity - 93
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 23
• Birdie or Better % - 50
• Scrambling - 40
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 38

 

Also Consider - Boo Weekley, Colt Knost

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

David Hearn
Vegas Odds - 100/1
Draftkings - $6,400
Fantasy Aces - $4,200

Did you think I was going to forget about my Canadian of the week? No way. There are two really good choices at a very low cost this week. Adam Hadwin had one of his best finishes in his young career with a T5 here last year, and while I don't see that happening again I can see a made cut but very little upside outside of that as it has been a rough season to this point for the Canadian. I will take the slight discount this week and roll with David Hearn. He is much more statistically sound as he ranks high in Good Drive %, GIR, Proximity, Par 3 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance. He is also seen success on the Par 4 holes(ranked 42nd) and comes in with three made cuts in his last four tournaments. I trust Hearn in any format this week.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green - 75
• Good Drive % - 16
• Proximity - 4
• Par 4 Scoring Average - 42
• Birdie or Better % - 105
• Scrambling - 64
• Strokes Gained: Putting - 91

 

 

 

Also Consider - Jhonattan Vegas, Zac Blair

 

Dean & Deluca Invitational Update Thread

 

 

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Dean & Deluca Invitational ? Chris is selling lineups only $5. He covers DraftKings, FantasyFeud & FantasyAces Cash Games & Tournaments. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.