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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/11/16 Playoffs
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Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors
Analysis
With the injuries to both of these teams starting centers, small-ball has become the style of play that is going to be seen throughout the rest of this series. Game 4 had some very interesting storyline's that should be mentioned here: Although he didn't outproduce him, Cory Joseph saw more minutes than Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan continued his wildly inconsistent postseason with a crushing sub 10 FP performance, Bismack Biyombo had a solid double-double in 31 minutes of action, the Heat's 4 returning starters each saw about 40+ minutes in this one, and Justice Winslow saw 31 minutes (and produced fairly well) off the bench. A lot of this game is going to hinge on the health of Whiteside, because if he can go it changes the dynamic of the game entirely. Given that the Heat are now tied in this series, and the fact that Whiteside has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL, I think it's likely that he's out at least 1 more game (but I'm not a doctor nor do I play one on TV so how much do I really know?).
Top Plays
Dwyane Wade - FD 8100 DK 8300
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
Joe Johnson - FD 5100 DK 5100
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
Goran Dragic - FD 6500 DK 6400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.59 DK Proj. Pts - 31
Our system likes the following guys from the Heat, and with each of these guys seeing a bump in minutes and usage with Whiteside off the floor, I have to agree with the system. Wade is playing (almost) like he was back in '05-'06 when he won a championship, playing super aggressive, attacking basketball on the offensive end (as evidenced by the 24 shots he took last game). Dragic saw the second most shots and the most minutes on the team in Game 4, and with the Raptor's playing with a smaller lineup without Valanciunas, his ability to slash and score really gives him a nice bump in value moving forward. And steady Joe as all the kids call him (idk if that's true or not anymore) has been a fantasy star in this series, hitting x6 value in 3 of his 4 games agains the Raptors. The loss of Whiteside only magnifies his value, and as far as inexpensive SF's go, he's about the only one I really trust.
Bismack Biyombo - FD 4700 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
Patrick Patterson - FD 3800 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 19.09 DK Proj. Pts - 21.45
Kyle Lowry - FD 7900 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 39.5 DK Proj. Pts - 41.83
Two value plays and a PG who shot 2-11 from the floor, but still managed a near triple-double. Yuck. I never thought I'd actually say this, but of the three Raptors here I trust Biyombo the most simply because of his defensive presence and ability to hit the offensive glass. Lowry has had 3 nice games in a row (from a fantasy prospective), and with the loss of Whiteside in the middle he should have more opportunities to attack the basket, which is something he didn't do much of in Game 4 surprisingly. And Patterson is more of a flyer to me, but the guy did see 41 minutes of action last game so just being on the court for 80% of the game gets you a mention, especially since he's priced near the minimum.
Portland Trailblazers at Golden State Warriors
Analysis
Heeeeeee's baaaaaaack. For those of you who didn't catch the end of the game last night, you missed a truly vintage Steph Curry moment in which he proved why he's the best in the league. Ice-cold for most of the game and playing on a knee that didn't even seem to be 100%, this guy comes out and drops 17 points in a 5 minute OT period. The return of Curry means business as usual for the Warriors in this one, and it could mean a dip in production for some of the other Warrior players (although it didn't in Game 4). Now for the Trailblazers, I'd imagine they're going to be pretty demoralized heading into this one, especially since they played so well in Game 4 and still lost. Look for another steady stream of Lillard and McCollum in this one, as these two combined to take exactly half of Portland's shots last night. I know this has been a pretty competitive series thus far, but with a close-out game at Oracle and the return of Curry, I think there's a good chance this one goes to the Warriors by 10+ points (just something to keep in mind).
Top Plays
Draymond Green - FD 10000 DK 11800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 50.28 DK Proj. Pts - 52.86
Stephen Curry - FD 10600 DK 9700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 0 DK Proj. Pts - 0
No real surprise here for the Warrior's, Curry and Green are my favorite plays out of this one. Green has been an absolute beast during the postseason for Golden State, and even with the return of Curry he managed an amazing 60 FP performance (albeit due to 7 blocks and 4 steals, which is unlikely to happen again). Green has now gone over 50 FP in each of his four games against the Trailblazers, and I don't see any indication or defensive scheme that is going to reverse this trend moving forward. Now Curry is more of a flyer pick because I can't be sure how his knee is going to hold up, but he provides a high-upside option at a slightly cheaper price than Westbrook. After that overtime performance it wouldn't surprise me if Curry came out gunning in Game 5, so you can use him as a more risky tournament play when I imagine more people will roster Westbrook for safety purposes.
Note: Our system likes Klay Thompson, and he's not a bad option even with Curry back in the lineup, but I personally think he's overpriced given the reduction in offensive responsibilities he's likely to see.
Damian Lillard - FD 8900 DK 9800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 46.59 DK Proj. Pts - 50.28
C.J. McCollum - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5900 DK 6000
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 31.57 DK Proj. Pts - 32.76
Not a lot of surprise here either if you've been keeping up with this series, but the Trailblazers rely very heavily on these 3 guys. Lillard has played like an absolute super-star in this series, and even with a great defender in Thompson checking him most of the game, he's still averaging over 30 ppg. His price really should be higher given his usage, and he's almost a bargain given his ability to go off at any given moment. McCollum is the other guy who Portland looks to for most of its scoring, and he's produced 20+ points in each of his last 3 games. I think the return of Curry actually benefits him, because now he won't have to worry about the lanky defensive presence of Shaun Livingston nearly as much (although he'll probably see a fair amount of Andre Iguodala, but still). And last, but not least, Al-Farouq Aminu has been a nice surprise for the Blazers in this postseason, and Terry Stotts has rewarded him by giving him 35+ minutes on most nights. The biggest thing for Aminu is will his shot be falling as it was in Game 4, because his ability to impact the game by rebounding and defending is unquestionable. It's a road game so it's hard to know for sure if the shot will be there in this one, but at these low prices it's hard to pass up on a guy who's been producing in this series like Aminu.
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image sources
- Stephen Curry: (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
47 Visitor Comments
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bioymbo price has risen on FD to 5500 im sure that changes some of the projections
just about everyone on FD for that matter lol
can we get updated projections please?
What do people think about this? Mix of Tournament and Cash..
Curry
Lillard
Wade
Ross
Carroll
Barnes (iffy on him)
Aminu
Deng
Biyombo
Curry
Lilard
Ross
Crabbe
Winslow
JJ
Mean Green
Aminu
Biyombo
I think this is A good line up $$$ I hope. Good Luck Fellas
Curry
Wade
Aminu
Deng
Biyombo
Dragic
Johnson
Pat
Thoughts?
That’s not a full team man?
It’s a DK lineup. Sorry should have mentioned that.
Anybody trusting Amar’e Stoudemire?
If I was rolling out 100 gpp’s I’d maybe use him in one, so no. With that being said he will probably kill it!
Not at all. Especially if they have Mcroberts and Haslum as options, AS won’t see the full amount of minutes people playing him would like. Unless he resides to snap like her does randomly
Different lineup variations I am running on DK that started last night and for tonight-
LU-1
PG Kyle Lowry
SG Terrence Ross
SF Kevin Durant
PF David West
C Bismack Biyombo
G Allen Crabbe
F L. Aldridge
UTIL Kawhi Leonard
LU2
PG Stephen Curry
SG Danny Green
SF Al-Farouq Aminu
PF P. Patterson
C Steven Adams
G Tony Parker
F Kevin Durant
UTIL Mason Plumlee
LU-3
PG Stephen Curry
SG Danny Green
SF Al-Farouq Aminu
PF P. Patterson
C Steven Adams
G Tony Parker
F Kevin Durant
UTIL Bismack Biyombo
LU4
PG Stephen Curry
SG Allen Crabbe
SF Al-Farouq Aminu
PF P. Patterson
C Steven Adams
G Tony Parker
F Kevin Durant
UTIL Mason Plumlee
LU5
PG Stephen Curry
SG Allen Crabbe
SF Al-Farouq Aminu
PF P. Patterson
C Steven Adams
G Tony Parker
F Kevin Durant
UTIL Bismack Biyombo
LU6
PG Stephen Curry
SG Dion Waiters
SF Al-Farouq Aminu
PF P. Patterson
C Steven Adams
G Tony Parker
F Kevin Durant
UTIL Mason Plumlee
LU7
PG Stephen Curry
SG Dion Waiters
SF Al-Farouq Aminu
PF P. Patterson
C Steven Adams
G Tony Parker
F Kevin Durant
UTIL Bismack Biyombo
LU8- Tonights LU working on others as we speak
PG Kyle Lowry
SG DeMar DeRozan
SF DeMarre Carroll
PF P. Patterson
C Bismack Biyombo
G Stephen Curry
F Al-Farouq Aminu
UTIL C.J. McCollum
Got two lineups today
First one
Cojo
Curry
Ross
Wade
Jj
Carroll
Aminu
Green
Bb
Second one
Dragic
Curry
Ross
Wade
Winslow
Carroll
Green
Aminu
Bb
Got to do something today
Stoudemire for 11 minutes and most likely 10-12 fps. Yea ill pass on that, both teams running “small ball” lineups. I would trust him for nada, Winslow or McRoberts are better punt options than that…..
Corey Joseph played more minutes last game because Lowry was in foul trouble sorta early, I dont see him breaking 15 fps tonight. ..
Gut feeling is saying winslow and pat patterson tonight. The only way i make myself logically believe in it is just bc mins will be there.
DeRozan out up 50pts after the last time he dudded – just saying!
I think he has a broken thumb
Justise Winslow, looks good from the optimizer stand point of view with all the different lineups I am running I haven’t added him to any of them. In my opinion he seems like a gut call either you run him and he comes up to value or better, than there is the bust value where he doesn’t even hit value. I made that mistakes in one of my lineups where I added David West from The spurs he never hot value resulting in only 5 FPT’S- Everything else was spot on-
On a short slate you almost have to take some chances just from the overlay standpoint.
So would the best punt play be Patterson? Thoughts?
I have Patterson in many of my LU’s The optimizer seems to be liking him for some reason.
I have also added Ross to some of my LU’S as well- So honestly I have no idea the best punt plays are- This is why I always run different LU variations on any given night depending on my Bank Roll-
Winslow is by no means safe as his points come from rebounds steals blocks and assist but if he does anything offensively hes an easy punt play. Spoelstra went small ball at the end with winslow playing primary on ball defender could be telling for this game. Agreed with patterson as best punt play tho, too many mins, 5pt favorites @ home im in.
Do u pay up for curry or do u pay up for draymond? On fd
I’m looking to Toronto for a couple punts. Casey hinted at using more small ball, not to mention Derozan is already complaining about his hand. This opens up a couple options.
Curry
Lowry
Thompson
Crabbe
jj
Carroll
Deng
aminu
bb
leaving out green to maximize my other positions
Thoughts on bogut and Barnes tonight? I have both in my lineup
Barnes should be good for 20 tonight. Sara
My last DK LU for the day as follows PG Damian Lillard
SG Allen Crabbe
SF Joe Johnson
PF P. Patterson
C Bismack Biyombo
G Stephen Curry
F Al-Farouq Aminu
UTIL C.J. McCollum
BACK for a 2 game slate on FantasyAces! I will not be posting a full lineup out of respect of those that contact me on twitter (if you message me on twitter I will still help you construct a full lineup). With the number of people starting to follow on FantasyAces we’ve created quite a bit of duplication!
FantasyAces building blocks 5/11/16:
G: D. Lillard $6,300: Is there any realm in which this game takes place and Lillard doesn’t put up at least 20 shots? The projections don’t think so. His minutes are safer than Curry’s and his ownership will be lower.
F: D. Green $6,500: Ownership will be lower than it has been all playoffs with Curry back. Portland hasn’t had an answer for Green this series and that won’t change. His usage rate on a fast pace team and ability to fill the box score has him as the top projected forward on the board.
C: B. Biyombo $4,100: This is an obvious, and boring pick. He played great in his start and should continue to dominate the boards and block some shots, making his value secure.
My twitter handle is linked for anyone that has more questions re: FantasyAces and I’ll check back until lock!
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http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
TheWalrus82
3 lineups
Lillard/curry/mccollum/ross/jj/carroll/deng/aminu/bb
Lillard/curry/mccollum/ross/jj/winslow/patterson/green/bb
Lillard/curry/wade/mccollum/winslow/carroll/patterson/aminu/bb
Thoughts and critiques?
Would love some opinions on playing Wade and Speights versus McCollum and Crabbe. I’m having some trouble deciding. Thank you!
FD cash lineups :
Curry
Lillard
Wade
Crabbe
Jj
Winslow
Aminu
Deng
Biyombo
Thoughts?
Momo Speights is the real sleeper tonight! Plays really good at home and everybody and their mom has Draymond Green tonight. Def. a steal here!
@ Alex I believe leaving Green out could possibly burn you.
My contrarian FD gpp (no Curry, no Green)
Lillard
Lowry
Wade
McCollum
Carroll
Johnson
Aminu
Patterson
Plumlee
Alright…what is the common consensus on fading Green tonight? Tough decision but as always in Fanduel, I can see where it would be both beneficial and detrimental to lineups.
Thoughts from the sharks?
Thanks and good luck to all.
I just counted for myself. I’m 50/50 with Green in my lineups. I’m throwing punts with him and more balanced without him. Problem tonight is it’s tough to fade PG with all the high output superstars. I notice most of the major adjustments occur at SG. I’m running for example Wade/McCollum without Green, McCollum/Ross with him.
Hard to fade green. but my gut says he produces again
I wouldn’t fade Dray – That man’s on a mission.
Got two lineups on fan duel
dragic
curry
ross
wade
carroll
Johnson
Patterson
Green
bb
line up two
cojo
curry
ross
wade
jj
carroll
green
aminu
bb
ross
wade
Howz about this one for FD Tourney:
Curry
Lillard
Wade
McCollum
Barnes
Carroll
Aminu
Patterson
Bogut
The GLARING fade is Green, keeping my fingers crossed there, otherwise the only real punt I have in the mix is Patterson, hoping he can get around 20 or so, Barnes as well.
Here’s my lineup for FantasyAces. What do you all think?
G D.Lillard $6,300
G. K.Lowry $5,800
G. A.Crabbe $3,700
F. D.Green $6,500
F. A.Aminu $3,950
F. J.Johnson $4,550
C. B.Bismack $4,100
UTIL. M.Plumlee $4,750
UTIL C.McCollum $5,200
If you are playing Patterson over Dray, you are doing it wrong.
Well Joseph is not looking like the punt I was hoping for in the rollover games from last night! Smh!!
Maybe I spoke too soon! Let’s go CoJo!!!
Beginning to realize Carroll too fondly resembles Courtney Lee. Plays 40 minutes… Puts up 10 fantasy points
Biyombo with 23 FPs at half. 25 total??? Talk about a fantasy let down!!