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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/9/16 Playoffs
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Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Analysis
You like games that end up with fewer than 190 points? It's the Raptors and Heat, baby! While there wouldn't be much to say about this series normally, we've been delivered two huge bombshells over the weekend: both Hassan Whiteside and Jonas Valancunias will almost certainly miss the game. Figuring out where those minutes are headed will likely be the key to profiting from this slate, so without further ado, let's parse it.
Top Plays
Bismack Biyombo - FD 4700 DK 3900
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
When Valancunias missed time earlier this season, Bismack was a routine 30-40+ fantasy points contributor. If Whiteside were playing I'd have some concerns about foul trouble and being up against a superior rebounder, but with this looking like a heavy dose of guys like Udonis Haslem, Josh McRobert, and Amar'e Stoudemire, I think Biyombo feasts here. I don't see any way around him playing 30+ minutes and putting up at least 5x points per dollar, and I'd say he's a favorite for 6x or better. On the same token, I likely won't be gambling on the Heat bigs. Whiteside only played 8 minutes in game 3, and none of the other guys really played enough to have a huge impact. You could make a case for Haslem as a play on DraftKings, but I love Biyombo on FD.
DeMar DeRozan - FD 7600 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 37.23 DK Proj. Pts - 38.19
Kyle Lowry - FD 7900 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 34.96 DK Proj. Pts - 37.3
I'm not going to lose sleep on one bad game from DeRozan - he shot 6/17 (which shouldn't happen again here) and had 3 very solid games before that. As for Lowry, things are certainly looking up. It's not only great that he demonstrated both efficiency and a high volume of shots (going 11/19) in game 3, but he actually ran bad in the assist department. Without the poor shooting of his teammates, this could have been an easy 5x performance. Don't mind either today if it makes sense salary wise, and bonus points because they won't have to deal with Whiteside patrolling the paint.
DeMarre Carroll - FD 4700 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 25.15 DK Proj. Pts - 27.49
The boom or bust guy. Carroll is playing HUGE minutes here, and while he's got a tough defensive assignment, we saw what he was capable of when he put up 38 fantasy points in game 2 of this series. I don't think he's super trustworthy here necessarily, but he's awfully cheap for a guy playing that many minutes in what ought to be a close game.
Dwyane Wade - FD 8100 DK 8200
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.18 DK Proj. Pts - 39.79
Really the only guy I'd feel great about rostering from Miami today. Wade's gone ahead and grabbed the game by the horns in 2 of the 3 games in this series - shooting 25 efficient shots, yes, but also rebounding like a madman, pulling down 7 a game in his last 8 games. With the Heat trailing 2-1, you can believe Wade will be bringing at home once again.
Consider: Joe Johnson.
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trailblazers
Analysis
The far faster game on the slate, and thus where most of the chalk plays will come today. We saw the Trail Blazers finally get off the schneid in game 3, and the two teams scored 228 points combined. Did I mention this is where your fantasy value comes from today? It is.
Top Plays
The Warriors
Klay Thompson - FD 8200 DK 9000
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 45.11 DK Proj. Pts - 49
Draymond Green - FD 10000 DK 11800
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 50.28 DK Proj. Pts - 52.86
Not a lot to see, here. Green has morphed into an uber-star in Steph's absence, and Klay has been incrementally better as well. Both are terrific values, since neither really has a guy that can cover him on the opposite team. The Trail Blazers made a noble try with Ed Davis, but Green simply outclasses him with his passing ability. Love these two in any format.
The rest
Whom can you trust among the other Warriors guys? Each of Iggy and Barnes have had some great games and some complete disappearances. Livingston has been generally solid, but his minutes are headed in the wrong direction after getting gutted by Lillard and co in game 3. I don't think you feel great about playing him in game 4, but it's tough to imagine Leandro Barbosa playing 20+ minutes here. If you need to, I suppose you can grin and bear it.
The Trail Blazers
Ah, the real feast of the day. They've got the best match-up of the day on account of the Warriors fast PACE, and have juggled minutes enough that there's still lots of value.
Damian Lillard - FD 8900 DK 9600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 46.59 DK Proj. Pts - 50.28
C.J. McCollum - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.98 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Just to get the chalk out of the way first, I imagine these guys will be in every optimal lineup today. Lillard's huge game 3 is well documented by now, but he had been solid in the 3 games prior to that one as well. And, yes, he's making the most off of playing against back-ups right now, but he can only play the guys that are put in front of him. I love him again tonight. McCollum had been a bit shakier, but finally put up a game worthy of his minutes increase in game 3, scoring 35 fantasy points in what passes for a balanced line for him. I like both again today.
Ed Davis - FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 25.55 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
The big riser in game 3! Ed played 30 minutes and was a basket away from a double double, putting up 24 fantasy points on a minimum salary. The price is up a bit, but he should be able to pay you back and then some. If you think the Blazers are going to pivot away from what finally worked in game 3, I'd say you're nuts. Still, some will be gunshy in this one and figure that Plumlee will sink back into his normal role. It's looking more and more to this analyst that Plumlee just doesn't fit in this series. I'll bet on Davis anywhere.
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5900 DK 5800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 31.57 DK Proj. Pts - 32.76
We expected a minutes regression for Aminu in game 3, but Harkless' injury helped his minutes head north of 40. I'm not sure if we can count on 40 minutes here, but it might not matter. Aminu is a great piece for Portland to play because he can switch onto a number of Golden State's perimeter guys, and not get instantly destroyed by Draymond Green. His 23/10 game might not be indicative of what we see every game, but it won't need to be to qualify him as the safest small forward on the board today by a healthy margin.
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image sources
- Draymond Green: (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
101 Visitor Comments
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What do y’all think of this for cash?
Lillard
Lowry
McCollum
Thompson
Carroll
Barnes
Green
Davis
Biyombo
Solid cash lineup. Like james davis said byambo is a lock tonight. How do we not roster dwade tonight? -5.5 in a basically must win situation@home dwade wants to play bron and i feel is gonna have an insane usage rate tmrw, maybe not a repeat performance from game 3, but def getting his tmrw. Livingston is the obvious pivot from lowry? Lowry ownership% gonna be very high tmrw for a guy whos lets be honest had two good games. Call me crazy but not trusting him.
Looks like Lowry is coming around, and it’s no coincidence that he had his best fantasy game of the series without Whiteside on the court (for most of the game).
Still, his ownership will surly be higher, so fading him might not be a bad move…………………..tough call here, especially after the dud Dragic put up last time out. Livingston is the only other viable option at PG.
Sf is yesterdays sg crapshoot. Barnes and carroll/johnsonfor cash iggy w/ carroll/johnson in gpps. Ownership% tough to predict on these slates. Thinking lillard/lowry highest owned pgs, klay/wade sgs, carroll/johnson sf, aminu/green pf, byiambo c. Pivot off of lowry? As mentioned in write up give me aminu if harkless out, but if looking to spend up on fd @pg2 go ed davis.
Lillard/livingston/wade/klay/demarre/iggy/green/aminu/bb gpp
Oh snap! That’s the lineup I entered….guess we will be sharing $$$….hopefully
I mean if Barnes can’t produce 5pts/$ at $4300 tomorrow I’m gonna lose my shit! He’s bound for something soon…maybe tomorrow?
I have a feeling Wade will bounce a 40burger tonight
Finished 3rd yesterday in the DK shoot around for $1,250. Danny green cost me a new car but still cashed all lineups. This website has made me a daily powerhouse. Thanks again guys for the great work!
Good for you Joe! Hey, for $1,250 you can still grab a jalopy to get you around….lol
Lol thanks. Jalopy it is
Going with my optimizer today yesterday I didn’t because I wasn’t sure about what it kept throwing at me so I ignored it, but if I had listened to it. I would have won big. I love this site and the insight it gives. Here is my DK lineup for tonight I hope this helps some of you. I am by no means a shark, but I have been doing not so bad in the postseason. Lineup as follows. You may see me on DK as IraqVeteran03
PG Damian Lillard
SG Gerald Henderson
SF Harrison Barnes
PF Luol Deng
C Bismack Biyombo
G C.J. McCollum
F Al-Farouq Aminu
UTIL Klay Thompson
That looks like a good lineup and all….but are you sure its a good idea to fade the big Green 50 pt monster?
Sorry…where are my veteran manners? From one vet to another…THANKS for serving
What lineup opitmizer you use
Joe,
What lineup do you like tonight?
Tonight will be a bit of a crapshoot. A lot of unknowns. Will Derozan and Lowry have big nights without JV? How many minutes will Whiteside be able to play if any? Will Haslem or McRoberts see more minutes? Can Wade have a repeat performance? Tonight I’ll just be going with my gut and it steers me wrong as much as it does right.
For DK
Baby Dame
Klay
Aminu
Patterson
Biz
Wade
Haslem
Lowry
Here’s a pivot for you……..Bogut instead of Bismack…..any takers?
I realize that BB will get the minutes here, but do you think it at all possible that Bogut outscores him in the limited minutes he gets?
I don’t think bogut out performs bb..….”but like Kevin Garnett ‘anything is possible!'”
I like Bogut too.
My FD LU for tonight……..
Lillard
Lowry
Wade
McCollum
Barnes
JJ
Green
Davis
BB
Tourney LU, probably be MANY duplicates, should be interesting.
my new lineup but have $2,600 remaining
PG Damian Lillard
SG Gerald Henderson
SF Harrison Barnes
PF Ed Davis
C Bismack Biyombo
G C.J. McCollum
F Al-Farouq Aminu
UTIL Klay Thompson
should I replace McCollum for Wade not for sure both I am really stuck any help would be great other than that I love my lineup.
What does Livingston have to get to hit value?
Anybody think Crabbe will have a decent night off the bench? I’m stuck between possibly him or Henderson.
Lets keep the FD Cash Game streak rolling tonight! I love the playoffs.
Lillard
Livingston
Thompson
Wade
Carroll
Barnes
Green
Aminu
Biyombo
Heres to hoping wade can turn back the clock another game!
What optimizer are u using Jared campbell
So no ones taking a chance on Usane or Josh Mcroberts with Hassn out?
Plenty of duplicate lineups tonight, but my guess is one lineup with these two guys in either one will win.
Ed davis or aminu or both
Should I go with ed Davis or Andrew bogut for a gpp on draftkings?
With Whiteside officially ruled out… Who stands to gain most of the bigs in Miami (thinking GPP)
What’s a good lineup optimizer
@Brian… I agree.. thought to myself this morning a winning lineup will have one of the Miami replacement players in it.. I sprinkled in Mcroberts, Usane and even Amare in some..
@Kwasi
I think both Usane and Mcroberts are good plays, but staying clear Amare. Looked up his yearly stats and even with Hasan out, he never produced.
But never hurts to take s chance.
The optimizer on this site lol that’s why we are here
**NOTE** To everyone that has signed up using my link on FantasyAces please check your e-mail. There is a freeroll tonight with cash prizes! Thank you for your continued support and to the entire DFSR team for allowing us to be here! Best group of DFS players around! Thank you!!
New to FantasyAces? Want to be a part of future freeroll’s? Support those that support you and sign up here:
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already on fantasyaces would love to play
Let’s see your lineup, Walrus.
Still putting together minutes projections, Lloyd. Lots of work to do in figuring out rotations for Miami’s front court with Whiteside announced as OUT. Usage should also vary without Whiteside so trying to calculate that out as accurate as possible. Toronto is easy with JV out because there’s a large sample size.
If you want to see my MLB lineup…it’s not happening today since I’m hosing a freeroll on Aces 😉
Would it be a good idea to run both Iggy and barnes
My line up for fd tourney,what yall think
Cojo
Damian lillard
Wade
Thompson
Caroll
Johnson
Green
Aminu
Bismack
I would think Dragon should put up some points again tonight.
Who to fade: klay or Draymond? Thoughts?
If you project Curry at 20 minutes (IF you believe he will actually play tonight) it takes away roughly 4-6 of Klay’s shots at his current volume and puts Green off of the ball (in theory, although I still think he’ll be the point-forward with Curry at less than 100%). That being said, Klay’s points come off scoring and not perf. stats. Losing shots is a big hit to Klay’s value. If you HAD to fade one, Klay would get the not.
I am not all in on Biyombo. Toronto did go small once JV got hurt. I still think Biyombo will hit value but I do think they will run Patterson at the 5 some.
The last time JV was out, Toronto had Biyombo & Scola in the lineup. I wonder if they will go with that lineup again and have Patterson come off the bench. I’m contemplating putting Scola in a lineup or 2. Could be the Frye of the raptors.
What do you guys think of Terrance Ross?
T Ross is a gpp only player. Has a pretty good upside if Toronto goes small and his 3 ball is falling. Much safer cash game plays on the board.
My FD team
PG D. Lillard $8,900
PG K. Lowry $7,900
SG D. Wade $8,100
SG D. DeRozan $7,600
SF D. Carroll $4,700
SF A. Iguodala $4,600
PF D. Green $10,000
PF U. Haslem $3,700
C A. Bogut $4500
It came down to DeRozan/Haslem vs. McCollum/Davis. With it pretty much Wade’s team his synergy with Haslem is going to open up alot of opportunities for Udonis, and his biggest threats are now Scola/Biyombo, not offensive juggernauts. If he gets 26 minutes AT LEAST I feel a double double is a guarantee. DeRozan/Lowry may put up 20 shots apiece tonight, I think Demar is a bigger threat than McCollum right now,
On DK, it’s impossible to not fade Draymond considering he costs almost $12,000… If he ends up getting 50fpts or 55fpts so be it, but I’m not dumping about a quarter of my salary on one guy, Steph or no Steph.
FantasyAces Hybrid for 5/9/2016 *lineup subject to Chef cooking or not cooking tonight*
G D.Lillard 39.37 6,300.00
G D.Wade 33.38 5,750.00
G D.DeRozan 34.21 5,750.00
F D.Green 40.22 6,500.00
F J.Johnson 22.24 4,550.00
F A.Aminu 22.53 3,950.00
C B.Biyombo 18.29 4,100.00
Util D.Carroll 17.85 3,800.00
Util S.Livingston 17.81 4,200.00
Please support those that support use and sign up for FantasyAces using this link if you are new:
http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
Nearly identical to what i came up with last night (trying out the “salary pro” thing and going Deng over Iso Joe so i go slightly over the salary cap and start out with -2.4 fantasy points). Curious, if Curry does end up playing do you drop Livingston, and who do you put in his place? And if we don’t get the Curry confirmation prior to lock are you going to run Livingston assuming curry sits or will you pivot off him because of ambiguity? Not a big fan of anyone in his price range for an easy pivot.
Thanks for the good work, Walrus.
The Warriors have come out and said that IF Curry does play, he will come off the bench. For $4,200 on FantasyAces I like the security of Livingston getting 25+ minutes as the starter vs chasing minutes with Ed Davis whom has been a victim of Terry Stotts front court rotations. In sort…stay on Green, stay on Livingston, stay off Klay (will lose shots to 2nd unit if/when Curry comes off bench). Not worth taking Klay over Derozen/Wade that will be minute/usage MONSTERS tonight in their game.
Excellent. Thanks and good luck!
Will luol deng get a bump in minutes without white side? Normally I have a hard time paying up for Deng because he rarely tops 30 pointS
Is a $5 2000 person quintuple up considered Cash or GPP??
Multipliers are considered cash games. Guarantee’d Prize Pool games are typically referred to as large, multi-entry tourney’s. There are some single entry gpp’s but they are few and far between.
Lillard
Lowry
Wade
Thompson
Carroll
Barnes
Deng
Aminu
Biyombo
That’s where I sit…within a roster with a faded Draymond Green…and a limited playing Steph Curry (if he plays at all) And a wing and a prayer on Harrison Barnes to put a few points up…bc I feel he’s due.
it kinda seems like a good idea to fade both Green and Thompson to be honest. To pay up 11,800 and 9,000 for those two seems like a waste, unless green gets 70 points. Or Klay gets 60. Earlier today I felt that Green was the go to guy, but now I think it’s Lillard. Thoughts?
POR/GSW is still going to be the higher scoring match up, so folks can fade Green all they like, but he hasn’t shown a deficiency in getting his point value so I am in on him 100 percent.
Secondly, I’m never playing DFS baseball again….
This year’s playoffs have been too sporadic. Bench players out scoring starters…WTF.
FYI there are still TWO openings in the $100 freeroll I sent out. If you signed up to FantasyAces using the link I post here the invite should be in your e-mail inbox that you used to sign up with (check spam).
Good luck tonight!
Your doing any dk lineup tonite bro? I need help been losing for hella long. Thanks
I am located in NY. I currently am unable to help with DK/FD. The DFSR community should have you covered on DK, though. Good luck tonight!
Davis or Patterrson for FD Cash?
Bimbo seems like the c lock….what about Plumlee
Plumlee is a sleeper tonight. IF he goes off. Priced at 6k…. he has a 50 pt ceiling ultimately. But his floor in this particular series has been low. Everyones going to use Biyombo or Bogut. So if Plumlee goes off I bet he has only 15% ownership or less
If you want to fade Biyombo I’d look at Bogut. If he’s able to stay out of foul trouble/on the court he has a pretty nice floor/ceiling for his pricetag.
I’d really like to know if Scola is coming in for 10-15 minutes tonight at the 2k price! Dude has a lot of heart.
Anyone taking a chance on Dragic tonight?
What’s wrong with Dragic? I have him in several lineups.
He sucked last game
Doug I’m not able to access the membership area.
With harkless playing, does Ed davis get less playing time?
Haha dragic sucking last game doesn’t mean he is going to this game. Based on recency bias, ill definitely take get him especially with Whiteside out and spoelstra opting to play more small ball. And scola would need at least 25 minutes to even reach value. Look at Courtney lee for example, played his heart out and got ball thr minutes he could could but only produced about 12 fps lol
I got Dragic in lineups too. Just assuming why people were questioning him had to be because of his last game. He’s been solid otherwise and he was in foul trouble last game too. I don’t think he’ll be owned as much though because he did suck fantasy wise last game.
How mins will amare see today?
The way that fantasy basketball seems to work usually, is that if Dragic had a bad game last game combined with low minutes the odds are that this game he will have bigger minutes and more points. He play good in this series in the beginning. With him being only $6400 he has some good upside. Unfortunately it’s taken me many losses to figure this out but there’s definitely a pattern. And due to the fact that white side is out, he is going to have to carry more weight. He’ll get 40 points tonight
According to rotowire, blazers might change lineup because of harkless hip. Just a FYI
FD cash game lineup:
Lillard
Dragic
D wade
Thompson
Carroll
Iggy
Green
Ed Davis
Biyombo
Thoughts?
Davis is not cash game safe. I would only roll him out in a GPP.
sooooo McRoberts love anyone??
I like McRoberts from a purely real-world-basketball perspective. But won’t be playing him tonight. I am looking at the Heat big man situation as follows:
Stoudemire – do not touch
McRoberts – total dice roll but upside is there if the minutes are. he’s the best per minute producer of the bunch. it’s the minutes that are the question
Haslem – total dice roll, but kind of in the opposite sense as McRoberts. He is not a good per minute producer, but i could see him getting the most minutes of the bunch for his rebounding and defensive abilities (he’s not much of a defender, don’t get me wrong, but neither are McRoberts or Stoudemire)
And that’s pretty much it. I’m staying away, but can see both McRoberts and Haslem as punt plays with McRoberts offering the higher upside as well as the biggest minutes uncertainty. Haslem got 22 to McRobert’s 13 minutes in game 3 if that is of any help.
Whats the best play McRoberts, Haslem, Winslow, or Stoudemire?
The McRoberts vs. Haslem dilemma really annoying me right now. McBob probably more upside but Haslem is the rugged rebounder and plays better with Wade.
Thanks I was asking as you must have been typing! Appreciate it.
Amare is starting tonight. Is he worth rostering?
really appreciate the response yall…now that DK is down I can stress even more about it lol
Is anyone truly absolutely fading Klay tonight?
STAT/Carroll or Patterson/Barnes
for FD CASH?
I feel like if you play amare…basically. he’s just gonna rotate thru…you’ll get doses of mcroberts. And haslem. Use all three guys to fill in for Whiteside.
But…if there’s some kinda triumph from one of these dudes. And they play well..they will get more time.
It’s a dragic wade deng game to lose. Bc it’s gonna be a small ball style regardless of who’s the big in there.
Best idea…if you can spare it. Build a roster with each guy in there to cover bases.
Walrus. Barnes or iggy. That’s all I’ve got money for
I really feel STAT will Start Fast.
Lillard Mcollum Aminu Haslem (Mcbob instead? Iunno) Dudmire Lowry Green Biyombo thoughts? (Tourny)
If you had Ross, Joseph, and Patterson as being the go to guys for Toronto in the last 10 minutes of the game, raise your hand.
LMAO!!! I swear if anyone has Nagueraoreirjei or whatever I’m gonna question insider knowledge!!!
The combination of derozan’s 9 points & curry playing is killing me. Actually, I’ve been getting killed during the playoffs for the most part. This sucks
Damn, Livingston ejected….
Cha ching!..gonna cash again tonight..thanks optimizer!
Whichoptimizer lineup u use
If Bogut keeps getting fouls, I will cash…lol
Lilliard
Dragic
Thompson
Wade
Carroll
Johnson
Green
Davis
Biyombo
313 points..nailed all my double ups.