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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/6/16
Welcome to the start of another weekend of daily fantasy baseball with DFSR. With just one game in the afternoon (WSH vs. CHC) we will be concentrating mostly on the evening slate where there are 14 games. There are plenty of high end pitching options today so you will probably notice that we are picking on a select few pitchers for our hitter values today. Good luck everyone!
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PITCHER
Noah Syndergaard FD 11200 DK 12900
Opponent - SD (Pomeranz) Park - @SD
FD - 46.15 DK - 26.56
Syndergaard is by far my favorite pitcher on the Friday slate. He gets an elite matchup in Petco Park vs. the Padres who own the leagues worst team wOBA(.270) vs. right handed pitching while striking out 26% of the time. Speaking of strikeouts, Thor has tallied 44 in just five starts while walking just six batters. There is definitely enough value on the slate to use Syndergaard in any format tonight.
Zack Greinke FD 10800 DK 10100
Opponent - ATL (Blair) Park - @ATL
FD - 40.19 DK - 22.11
It was a rocky start for Greinke in his first season wit the D Backs as he has given up 23 earned run sin six start but the numbers suggest things are starting to turn in the right direction. While he comes in to this game with 5.50 ERA he is holding down an xFIP of 3.72 showing he is pitching better than it appears. He has had two really bad starts giving up five home runs and 14 earned runs in those games which has inflated the numebrs. He comes at a discount from Thor and Bumgarner and has a favorable matchup vs. the Braves who ranked second last in team wOBA(.274) vs. right handed pitching.
Wei-Yin Chen FD 8000 DK 9000
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @MIA
FD - 35.33 DK - 18.95
The projection system loves Chen as one of the top value plays of the day, especially on FanDuel with a $8,000 price tag. He isn't going to strike out a ton of batters but isn't going to walk many either. He is very consistent and coming off two straight wins going 6.2 innings with four punch outs in each start. Why Chen over the high upside arm of Velasquez on the other other side of the ball? The Marlins are favored at home in this game and hit right handed pitching quite well while the Phillies have struggled mightily vs. left handed pitching ranking 29th in wOBA(.250) and striking out over 30% of the time.
CATCHER
Stephen Vogt FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.82
The Oakland Athletics offense is in a favorable spot on Friday against Mike Wright and Orioles. Vogt displayed a nice power stroke last season with 18 home runs and 71 runs batted in. He has already picked up 3 dingers early in the 2016 season and will have a great shot to add to the total tonight. Wright is a fly ball pitcher who is walking over two batters per nine innings and is prone to giving up the long ball with a 12.5% HR/FB rate this season after finishing 2015 with a 13.6% HR/FB rate. Vogt is safe in all formats.
Evan Gattis FD 2300 DK 3500
Opponent - SEA (Walker) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.05 DK - 7.65
The projection system loves the upside of Gattis today. I wouldn't trust him in cash games but if you are looking for a really low owned catcher with big double HR upside he may be just the pick for you. He is coming off three straight seasons of crushing 20+ HR but is still trying t find his stroke here in 2016. He is walking almost 3% more than his career average but the issue lies with his strike out rate. He is currently striking out over 33% of the time which has caused a very low .211 average. He is a very high risk/high reward play.
FIRST BASE
Jose Abreu FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.74 DK - 9.65
He has been on quite a tear lately with hit in eight of his last nine games which include five multi hit efforts. The power stroke is off to a slow start with just four home runs but he continues to be a run producer with 19 RBI on the year. In his third season in the majors he is striking out less and walking more but has seen a 40 point dip in BABIP resulting in a lower average. He will get a terrific matchup vs. Ricky Nolasco on Friday who has given up at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts.
Joey Votto FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Cravy) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.51 DK - 11.03
The projection system has Votto as the top scoring first basemen today and it's hard to argue. After a slow start to the season he has really picked up the pace in the last two weeks hitting .308 with two home runs and eight RBI since April 22, while walking close to 15% of the time. He will get a favorable matchup on Friday vs. Tyler Cravy is making a spot start for the Brewers. He made 14 appearances(7 starts) last season going 0-8 with a 5.70 ERA while walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings. I don't expect Cravy to be in there long but Votto should get a at least two at bats before they turn it over to the bullpen.
Adam Lind FD 2200 DK 3700
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.75
If you are looking to punt first base tonight consider Adam Lind will face gas can Doug Fister on Friday. Lind is the first of three Mariner left handed power bats listed in the article today. Fister has given up a .410 wOBA to left handed hitters and all five of his home runs against. His best value is on FanDuel where he is only $2200.
Also Consider - Chris Carter
SECOND BASE
Robinson Cano FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.42
Another Mariner in a great spot as the projection and anyone with a pulse knows to target Doug Fister who is giving up a 19.2% HR/FB rate with all of them coming against left handed batters. Unlike Lind you can trust Cano in all formats as he has found his power stroke and already has nine home runs and leads the league with 30 RBI. He has been walking more(7.5%) and striking out less(13.3%) and could actually see even more positive regression as he is working with a .247 BABIP which is close to 70 points lower than his career average.
Jed Lowrie FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.93
A great mid tier pick who makes a terrific cash game play on Friday. He has been incredibly consistent with hits in 14 of his last 17 games and is hitting .313 on the season with an above average .358 on base percentage. He is a switch hitter who adds a ton of value hitting second in the A's lineup and has equal splits hitting vs. lefties and righties this season.
Also Consider - Brian Dozier
SHORTSTOP
Jimmy Rollins FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.22 DK - 8.44
Another player like Lowrie above who makes an affordable cash game play and brings value at the top of the lineup. He is coming off a game where he went 0-2 but walked three times vs. the Red Sox on Thursday night. If he can get on base again tonight he should have no problem getting cashed in vs. Ricky Nolasco who has given up 14 earned run sin his last four starts.
Jonathan Villar FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.04 DK - 9.89
He continued his hot hitting last night going 1-3 with a walk and another run extending his hit streak to five games. He hits at the top of the order and provides a ton of value. He is running a .379 OBP which and has eight stolen bases so far and has some nice power bats like Braun, Lucroy and Carter behind him in the lineup.
Also Consider - Zack Cozart
THIRD BASE
Kyle Seager FD 3600 DK 4400
Opponent - HOU (Fister) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.95
After a small break from picking on Doug Fister we are back with another left handed hitter. Seager hasn't been hitting for average(.192) so far in 2016 but is making up for it with his power(6 HR and 18 RBI). He has also added 16 runs scored. He is due for some positive regression as he is running an extremely low .176 BABIP and should fare well against Fister who is giving up a .407 wOBA to left handed hitters. Get those Mariners, who are 8th in offense, in your lineups on Friday night.
Also Consider - Anthony Rendon
OUTFIELD
Josh Reddick FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.23 DK - 11.08
He comes in as the top overall rated outfielder today on the projection system and has provided excellent value hitting out of the three hole for the A's. Target the A's left handed bats as Wright has struggled giving up a .426 wOBA and three home runs to left handed batters this season. With a very attractive price Reddick is safe in any format on Friday night.
Miguel Sano FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Latos) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.41 DK - 9.35
In his second season in the big leagues Sano continues to show elite patience(15.3% BB rate) but strikes out way too much(33%). His upside is somewhat capped with the lack of talent around him which is clear by his terrific .364 OBP which has only resulted in 12 runs scored. He has big power upside and has positive splits vs. left handed pitching this season hitting .300 while only striking out three times. He gets a favorable matchup vs. Mat Latos on Friday who on the surface is having a great season going 4-0 in his first five starts. Dig a little deeper and you can see why it might be good spot to target against him. He is operating with a .228 BABIP and while his ERA sits at 1.84 his xFIP of 4.96 suggests he is due for some regression in a hurry.
Melky Cabrera FD 2800 DK 3000
Opponent - MIN (Nolasco) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.26
As I mentioned in the opening we will be picking on a select few pitchers this evening with so many great pitchers on the bump tonight. Ricky Nolasco is one of these pitchers we will be picking on. He has given up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts and has struggled most against left handed batters while Cabrera is switch hitter with positive splits vs. right handed pitching.
Also Consider - Jay Bruce
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45 Visitor Comments
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Sorry Blue Jays…i didn’t mean what I said about you over the last couple of weeks.
Lol Anthony. So did u stack them yesterday after u chirped them? It was just a matter of time before they woke up but it is a long long season
yeah they were great for me.. things looked good until a rockies stack put up 17 runs.
I think I’m finally done rostering, expensive ace pitchers. It seems like every time I do they blow up. Lately, I’ve paid up for aces only when they have great match-ups. That was the case with Degrom last night and he blew up. I’ve had much more success with contrarian value plays and middle-tier guys. I’m leaning toward Zimmerman today but wondering why he is so cheap and no one is recommending him Are the Texas rangers that fearsome?
Hey guy. My problem is with the early slates. I did well yesterday but had two players that didn’t play in the 6 o’clock game. I there any way to avoid this? Picking a lineup at noon for a 6 game is almost impossible. Is there Anywhere to get an accurate projected lineup or do you think fanduel will allow for u to pick backups incase of last minute roster changes?
You have to fly by the seat of your pants on line-ups that early. Dailybaseballdata is pretty good once a lineup is in. That used to happen to me alot, until I found out better resources.
Go to Draft kings, you can change up to the point of the start of the game.. this is why I quit Fanduel on Baseball
That is the stink with FD. Once lineup locks, there are no changes. I combine using both this site and Rotogrinders tools. They do a pretty good job with lineup projections but you never know. Usually Catchers are sit candidates in back to back games. Hope that helps.
Zimmerman will be lights out again against the Rangers. I do not fear Texas. I watched the Blue Jays game last night and they were dominated by Happ.
I went with the Blue Jays, Astros and Brewers and did very well yesterday. Will be going in the MLB Super Slam on Fan Duel tonight thanks to a free ticket.
Not even considering Noah because he screwed me last start and the Thunderstorms all day in San Diego. 🙂
It says in the article that Mike Wright is starting for Baltimore but on DK it has Ubaldo starting
Ya it will be Ubaldo Jimenez pitching. It was showing Mike Wright late last night when I was doing up the article. Sorry for the confusion.
Wright was coming through our feed as starting last night. I’ve updated system with Ubaldo which is coming through correctly now.
Hi Chris which teams would you recommending stacking today ?
I am actually working on the stacks article right now and will have it out very soon.
As you can probably tell from the article the White Sox and Mariners will be two of my favorites today.
Nice and thanks a lot for that. What about sneaky stacks? Any games/teams that aren’t projected to score a lot of runs but potentially could ?
2 questions: Obviously the Blue Jays broke out yesterday, thoughts of their bats v. Maeda tonight in Toronto? Primarily Bautista and Donaldson. My second question is a pitching question: Porcello at Yankees Stadium against an offense with a lack of punch??? Would you roll Porcello as good as he has been??
Hey Domonic. Yup, Jays did their thing early and often. Was great to watch. I am avoiding them against Maeda tonight. Significantly worse matchup than Holland heading the wrong direction for most of their team’s splits.
I know Porcello has been a different pitcher this season. Our system is a little bearish on him relative to early season gains. I hate righties going in that stadium, even a K/ GB like himself. It’s just too easy for a lefty to punch one over the porch in right.
Just think it’s the wrong spot for him even with the early season numbers.
Are the projections correct? Are the left bats of the Athletics still good to go? I need some solid recommendations cause I need to get back to the winning ways tonight.
I keep paying up for pitchers in my cash games only to get let down, do you still recommend paying up for pitchers in cash games? If so, do you pay up for two top pitchers tonight and take value bats all the way around or do you take one top pitcher and one value pitcher?
Tonight’s slate is just packed with quality arms. Ubaldo in there does push some of the A’s down, but I like them, Seattle and Reds because they are facing weakest arms on the night.
Paying for the high end pitchers in solid ML and O/u scenarios with the peripherals to back up is nearly always the way to go in cash.
thank goodness I didn’t listen to you yesterday and pick degrom, went with gausman and cashed everywhere. Anyone know what is wrong with goldy he is slumping at 1st base still cashed with him getting 0 tho
@Jared Ya you dodged a landmine yesterday in DeGrom. I think people will be off Syndergaard for this reason making him an even better choice today. As for Goldy I think he is just dealing with a bit of bad luck with a BABIP of .270 which is close to 80 points lower than his career average. He is very patient with a 21.5% walk rate so I feel he is going to snap out real soon. And will be low owned when he does.
Highly doubt deGrom outing will have any bearing on ownership level with Syndeergard think potential weather will have more to do with that
That game in Baltimore is looking more and more likely to rainout, so watch out with all those A’s recommendations.
The money line’s been moving down for Mets today which I find surprising. I really like them at -145 today. If it’s public movement based on deGrom’s outing last night all the better (which I think it is considering the timing).
Add in how well Pomeranz has pitched some may view him as a live dog
His and Thor’s xFIPs are just where I want to inform why I think the ML is skewing the wrong direction. Both a run worse/ better in the opposite directions.
Agreed
@Raina I am working on the news update article right now and have listed that game as a potential rainout or at least a lengthy delay. Don’t trust any OAK or BAL players in cash games!
Jordan Zimmerman has an ERA of 0.55 but a SIERA of 4.08. Regression is bound to catch up to him soon
If Thor and MadBum face bad delays…. looks like a diamond in the rough day for pitching huh??? Guess it’s Grienke………..
Hey boys here’s my lineup
DK cash
ADleman
Hill
Posey
Abreu
Altuve
Donaldson
Story
Braun
Cespedes
Big a ??
Any thoughts on last outfielder
Always appreciate what you guys here at DFSR do, thanks again. After a 145.25 on my posted lineup here yesterday, Im hoping for a repeat performance with Hamels/Hill, Navarro, Cabrera, Cano, K Seager, Cozart, Stanton/Rasmus/Trout.
Just throwing the information out there… ..Sharp money has absolutely annihilated Texas (opened at +135 and is currently sitting at +105), and Yankees/Boston under (which opened at 8 is currently sitting at 7).
How do we like Carlos Beltran tonight, any update on the OAK game weather?
The weather in BAL seems to have improved some, but still not ideal. I’m generally avoiding that game though I would really like Vogt and Reddick if I knew weather was fine.
No Beltran for me tonight.
Bum or syn? See u wrote up syn but can’t go wrong w bum? No?
It’s interesting. Tonight I love the natural hedge provided by pricing difference on DK. Bum slightly more than Thor on FD, but $2K less on DK.
Syn/Bruce or bum/Seth smith? That’s the question?
Noah/ Bruce has more expected mean points but Bruce is a higher sDEV guy based on profile
I’m going to have to google sDEV.
Lol my bad. Typo-ed stDev – standard deviation.
With synder iffy with weather do you guys think Chen is to risky
In cash?
Thanks can’t stay put on Bruce! Too many reds and he’s the odd man out.
How is the Mets game looking with the weather?
I’m playing Thor but I don’t love it
Of all places weather risk in San Diego 2 nights in a row as much as I love syndeergaard tonight only throwing him in gpp just in case