Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/5/16 Playoffs

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Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers

Analysis

Top Plays

Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

Analysis
The first game is this series was a total and complete slog and yes, that included the overtime. It was boring to watch and was just the opposite of what makes some other teams in the playoffs exciting. Outside of the last 90 seconds or so of regulation when the Raptors mounted a comeback, the game wasn't much to behold.  Both of these teams make their bones on slowing the game down and working opponents over on defense. That they both employ this strategy only means we are in for more games like the first one. There's really no other way. Miami ranked 25th in PACE and Toronto ranked 29th. That's a lot of long shot clocks, walking the ball up the court and playing for one shot (not always a great one either).

The Heat stole a game in Toronto and there's also something clearly wrong with Kyle Lowry. Outside of the half court heave to send it to overtime (and even that looked awkward) he couldn't get anything going. It could be an injury, or fatigue. But he's struggled a ton in the playoffs and it isn't' going to get easier in this series.

Top Plays
Dwyane Wade - FD 7500 DK 8000
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 37.06 DK Proj. Pts - 37.64
Clearly the man for the Heat right now and he put up a solid game one line with a 24/6/4/3/2 that extended into OT. He still only played around 33 minutes in regulation and the Heat have done a very solid job managing his minutes over the course of the regular season and the playoffs. It's that lack of top end run that holds me back on him just a little.

Joe Johnson - FD 4700 DK 4800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
Still taking a lot of shots for the Heat and getting out there for major minutes. Johnson's price hasn't moved much throughout but he's been a solid value considering the kind of shot volume he could see if it gets into the double digits of looks.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 35.54 DK Proj. Pts - 36.14
He's such a high upside play but also a major risk if the Heat decide to sit him in crunch time because of the free throw shooting. He dominated the glass in the first game pulling down 17 boards. The scoring never came around as they couldn't work him in the post as much as they might have liked.

Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6200 DK 6600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 33.98 DK Proj. Pts - 34.56
If the Raptors think they can keep him on the court this much without being a complete and utter defensive liability over the long term then he's a fantastic value at center. Jonas wasn't out there a ton in the first game, running around 36 minutes in regulation and finishing with the line of the game at 24/14. If you think he's going to see minutes in the mid 30's again then he's almost a must play at these prices.

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7400 DK 7100
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 35.83 DK Proj. Pts - 36.76
He doesn't take great shots and he can be a frustrating guy to watch. But he also has upside if he's going to put up 22 shots a game in this series.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

Analysis
Well okay. Think Cleveland likes the unit they've been deploying to handle the Hawks? Game two was over before the end of the first quarter and was a laugher by halftime. Now it should be known that Cleveland will not shoot like this from three again. They were above 60% for the game and that is just lights out territory. It won't be repeated and rest assured you won't see J.R. Smith turning on his inner Curry with that kind of shooting night again. But, we knew the Cavs liked what they had in playing Thompson at the five and the mismatches it would create everywhere else. They exploited it and will keep going back to what works.

Again, I'm really not faulting the Hawks too much for what transpired in the second game. Sure they are outmatched in this series, but if a team is basically going just make every three then there's nothing anyone can do. Game three will be closer for sure.

Top Plays
Last game was such a blowout that it really didn't change my mind about any of the value plays coming out of this series. I'm just running back the picks from last time around because I think every piece of his holds true.
LeBron James - FD 10600 DK 11000
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 53.51 DK Proj. Pts - 55.67
Kevin Love - FD 7600 DK 8100
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.82 DK Proj. Pts - 42.68
Tristan Thompson - FD 4800 DK 4800
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.24 DK Proj. Pts - 28.85
J.R. Smith - FD 4700 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.5 DK Proj. Pts - 27.7
This analysis is from our last article and it still holds true. Sure this seems like a massive cop out. I'm just recommending the whole Cavs team right? Well yes, yes I am. But the kind of minutes safety you are looking at with these four guys is really about as good as it gets on a two game slate and they are priced with flexibility all around. On FanDuel I'd probably run all four without hesitation. You just have such a fantastic floor if the Cavs are committed to this being their lineup in the series. And there's no reason to doubt, short of a blowout, that it will happen. The only guy I left off is Kyrie because you can't start all five and he is the one who gets rotated on the odd-man out scheme. There is also other PG value out there so I think he's fine to avoid.

Paul Millsap - FD 8900 DK 8600
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 44.34 DK Proj. Pts - 46.04
He's definitely behind Love and LMA for me in terms of pts/$ on this three game slate. But still worth a look especially if you think folks will be off of him after a rough last game. Millsap can still fill it up especially if the Hawks can hang in this game because he'll see minutes around 40 if that's the case.

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

Analysis
A wild game two ended with a Dion Waiters push off, Spurs steal and a wild scramble that ultimately left the Thunder as one point victors. It was a huge game for OKC to steal considering they'd been just crushed in the first game and the Spurs were basically impossible to beat at home this season. Really, it's amazing OKC won the game and it gives the series some serious life.

Heading into OKC for game three Vegas as the Spurs as two point favorites and I obviously still think they are the big favorites to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But it is at least making things interesting and you can bet OKC come out hard-charging in this one now that they know it's not going to be a landslide.

Top Plays
Russell Westbrook - FD 10900 DK 10800
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 54.71 DK Proj. Pts - 56.59
I'm leaving Durant out of the value plays piece for OKC because even though he's seeing the minutes, Kawhi is making things so tough on him that it's hard to justify paying all the way up for his salary. Westbrook on the other hand appears worth every penny. A 29/10/7 line in the second game is just more of the same from the guy and San Antonio doesn't have a fantastic answer for him on an individual defensive level. Very much worth the price tag.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 44.56 DK Proj. Pts - 45.41
Wow. Wow. This guy was unstoppable in game two, putting up the line of the night at 41/8/3. Everything was falling for LMA who went 15-21 from the field and the Spurs consistently got him in the pick and roll. He had what he wanted the whole time and the minutes were about his highest of the season. Expect it to continue as the Spurs know they have mismatches with him.

Danny Green - FD 4100 DK 4000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.52 DK Proj. Pts - 28.16
I know, I know. Everyone hates rostering this guy in DFS. And I get why. He can simply disappear from the fray for long (almost full game) stretches. He's a price play and nothing more. The Spurs run him enough because he can guard multiple positions and he actually did get up double digit shot attempts last game.

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