Free Player Lab TrialBasketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/26/16 Opening Round
Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate update article. Check back to this article throughout the day Friday and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.
Now’s your chance to get DFSR Pro with NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. Or try a free trial of our base package with projections for every player. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA, MLB, and NHL! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors
Analysis
Remember last time when I mentioned the Pacers biggest issue in staying in this series would be their ability to score consistently? It didn't seem like that big of a problem in game four as they evened things at two games a piece. While the series is tied, the games themselves haven't been all the competitive in a one-off basis with each team commanding the pace of play in their respective wins. That was the case last time with Indiana capitalizing on Toronto's struggles from beyond the three point line and also adding interior scoring from Mahinmi especially.
With the series shifting back to Toronto it stands to reason the Raptors come to play and are a -7 favorite going in. Again, the Raptors' fate hinges much on the play of Derozan and Lowry. Don't expect them to combine for 0-7 from three like they did last game or 8-27 from the field. Both represent outliers in terms of efficiency and volume. I expect to get heavy minutes and usage out of both.
Top Value Plays
Kyle Lowry - FD 8200 DK 8000
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 40.95 DK Proj. Pts - 43.34
I'll mention this a couple of times in this post, but the pricing on this slate is ultra soft. More so on FanDuel, but DraftKings isn't much better. The sites simply haven't fully adjusted for some guys having totally new roles in these playoffs. Lowry isn't that example, but he's a guy we can fit salary-wise because of the other value.
DeMarre Carroll - FD 4800 DK 4100
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 23.2 DK Proj. Pts - 25.03
After being on a short minutes leash because of the nearly season-long injuries which kept him out a great deal, Carroll has been out there a ton in the last two going 35 and 32 respectively. They must be confident the extended run won't cause any further flare ups in the Achilles and his price hasn't come close to catching up with how much he's now on the court.
Paul George - FD 9300 DK 9400
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 40.06 DK Proj. Pts - 42.52
His scoring has decreased every game in the series going down 33, 28, 25 and 19 in the last game. It hasn't always been for the same reasons though which is a good sign in my opinion. Last game the Pacers simply took their foot off the gas because they had the game well in hand. Before that, George was getting to the line a ton and putting up threes. If the game stays close, look for more of the same and I think you can fit his salary with relative ease.
Ian Mahinmi - FD 5200 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 24.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.8
He went full beast mode last time out and was a major reason the Pacers took the Raptors to task. He went 22/10 in 33 minutes. I'm not as bullish on that kind of run again because the Pacers will stagger their rotations if he doesn't have the inside game working. But if you think he even sniffs like 28 minutes then he's still an easy value play.
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
Analysis
The playoffs are so funny. You would think we'd have all of these "known" entities going into even the first round of things. After all, these are the playoff teams for whom consistency has won out over the course of the year. Even if styles deviated a little come playoff time, we typically know so much about how a team will operate going in, or if not completely we at least should have a clear look once the series gets started. And then you have the Celtics. All year they've worked different rotations and minutes in sometimes (fantasy-wise at least) maddening ways. So why should the playoffs be any different. Sure they were dealt a big blow lowing Avery Bradley who was their top minutes/game guy on the season. But they've also chosen to, out of nowhere, start Jonas Jerebko and run him a ton. Terry freaking Rozier is playing twice as much in the playoffs as the regular season while a guy like Sullinger is getting bumped out of contention. It's nuts. And it's working. The Celtics have won the last two have the series tied heading back to Atlanta.
Meanwhile the Hawks are shortening things up on their end, relying much more on their starters now with all of them logging huge minutes in regulation before losing in overtime in game three. I'm hoping we can bank on that kind of minutes expectation going forward as it will help solve some projection issues that have become a hallmark of these playoffs.
Top Value Plays
Isaiah Thomas - FD 8800 DK 8600
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57
While not technically a value play, the pricing on FanDuel especially is so soft that you can pretty easily play Thomas without sacrificing much expectation elsewhere. His salary is worth it on the raw point alone and you can almost safely assume that he'll be looking to get shots up early and often. He's given the Hawks' D issues and I suspect that continues tonight.
Evan Turner - FD 6000 DK 6600
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 29.85
He's a much better deal on FanDuel than on DraftKings and this late in the season on such a short slate the margins are going to be razor thin. The Celtics have run him out pretty hefty minutes and really kicked it up a notch last game. He did 40 in regulation and could be in line for the same tonight. He took a 19 shots in game four and while I don't expect that kind of volume again, the minutes should be up in the same-ish range.
Marcus Smart - FD 5300 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.86 DK Proj. Pts - 29.7
It's always tough to roster guys off the bench, but Smart is one of those dudes who does see his minutes in the right rotations. The Celtics love having him out there for the energy and defense, but he's also a big value add because the scoring (and especially three point) shooting has really come along.
Jonas Jerebko - FD 4800 DK 4000
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.49 DK Proj. Pts - 26.09
One of a few cheap guys who'll let you roster basically all of the top money guys on this slate. Jerebko averaged 15 minutes per game during the regular season and all of a sudden is going in the low-to-mid 30's. It's nuts and he's been productive, averaging a 13/11 in the last two.
Paul Millsap - FD 8900 DK 8700
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.7 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52
James spent ten minutes on the phone with me yelling about Paul Millsap's game four performance. Mostly because we got pump faked by his lack of volume in the last two games only to be treated to a 45/13 display in which he chucked up an ungodly 31 shots. Don't pencil him in for that kind of game again anytime soon. But considering PF is weak and slate is short you won't have many reasons to fade him. He isn't the safest guy, but much like Thomas I'll get him in there just on the raw point expectation.
Kyle Korver - FD 4100 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.52 DK Proj. Pts - 24.89
I'd stomach it from the minutes alone. I know his performances can be variable at best, but he's shown something against the Celtics in this series as the Hawks have worked real hard to run him off screens and get him shots. Still considered almost a punt play when we look at the slate as a whole. Not a must-add but he's attractive because the rest of the position is weak.
GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!
GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY NBA!
And Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!
image sources
- Paul George, Reggie Jackson: (AP Photo/R Brent Smith)
67 Visitor Comments
Post a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
Can;t remember another year with so much huge injury news in the span of hours. Curry out two weeks ( some speculating even longer) and Doc just gave a press conference that made it sound like Blake and Chris are done for the year. Crazy how that shakes up the West and the playoffs in general.
And thank you Mr Aminu for helping crush it tonight..
For real Thomas, i couldnt believe it when i saw Paul heading off the court shaking that hand…..and then Blake……Clippers are crippled….. After the terrible news about Steph…..wow …just wow. Gotta also throw a shout out to Aminu for my own personal crushage.
I’m not surprised by Sullingers minutes. Hard to remember a player this late in the season who looks bigger and more out of shape than when the season started. Crazy how out of shape he looks.
One thing that’s been impossible to predict has been foul trouble. Anyone who rostered Kaminsky tonight got burned when he got two early fouls and was never in the flow of the game and the other night both Teague and Horford went to the bench in the first five minutes with foul trouble and they just kept feeding and riding Milsap after he got hot.
Nights like this are so hard. You don’t really have anyone you can hang your hat on.
Been on a serious cold streak the last 3 days. What I can say to you all is to go contrarian with 80-90% of your roster. Focus on the matchups, the away and home teams and I think you guys should be more than fine tonight.
Man, Paul…..
Yesterday’s optimal lineup was a flop.I tried it for the 1st time and saw the flaws in it bit went anyway.
Only flaw I saw was in the fracture in Paul’s hand. Optimal was safe other than that all night.
The Paul injury cost me 10 grand, was easily on my way to first then ended up in 5th…suppose to be happy about that but found it hard to sleep lastnight
Paul was teamed with Westbrook in the optimal lineup.
Took some people from the optimum as a base line, won a 50 dollar single entry GPP for $1000 so I’m happy
RW Kemba Wade Crawford Aminu Marv Dirk Serge Plum
So many land mines last night seemed like it kept cash lines low, at least in the single entries. Multis where the Sharks enter tons helped account for the mines.
How bout GS range of emotions. Bad news on steph then had to be don happy dance night knowing they could get a depleted clippers or la/port after a 7 game series.
You guys think milsap comes crashing back to earth tonight or still up for a solid if not good night?
I know the optimal is maxing out 60k now, just seems like on a slate with these 2 games I can bring my lineup to pay up that much.
millsap is going to have a ridiculous ownership %. Might be the night to eat the money and fade on a gpp
This optimal lineup could be a little better haven’t had no luck with their perdition sometimes I do better with my own picks.
Still cashing on Aces with help from the DFSR community and my logarithm for FantasyAces!
Fade every Celtic player except Thomas
Your guys predictions are great, but talk about a kick in the gut last nite. After some great punt picks early. Lee, ZaZa and Justin Anderson. Sitting not too far off the cash line with Griffin, Paul and McCollum.. Saw Griffin’s ownership was at 11% and thought cash lock. Start of the 3rd Q above the cash line. Griffin staring to take over the game in the 3rd Q. Then see both go out with injuries. What a freaking disaster last night. Bet I can play DFS for 50 more years and will never have that happen again. This a nite after I’m 12 pts above the cash line with Lebron, and go for 0 pts in the final 5 minutes….0. Fall below the cash line on Jackson’s dunk.
Maybe the DFS Gods are telling me to take a break LOL
Shout out to.my main Powell with that 8x performance my gut pick of the nite
FD Tourney Isiah joseph ellis turner gorege bazemore millsap turner/Jerbko/Patterson Valanciunas….Any thoughts or changes?
Lowry
Korver
George
Millsap
Valanciunas
Teague
Jerebko
Rozier
DK GPP. Thoughts on the Rozier punt?
I thought about that punt too, but I don’t see it being too beneficial in a small slate. The way I am seeing it is this forces you into a balanced line up tonight unless you know who is going to tank. Both games hold a great deal of intrigue and importance, so I personally am not getting to cute with my lineups. The only player who is remotely questionable is Horford, and I am playing him due to his production per minutes.
Got burnt by Celtic players this playoffs & once again they seem to fit in the budget. Maybe its time to just do the free roll tonight!!
On a GPP. the winner will have a punt that hits. Its a must. I generally have a bulk of my GPP’s with a varied amount of punts and cover as many of my possibilities.
punts I like are joseph, Patterson, Solomon…anyone else think of any good ones?
I had lots of Zaza last night but Frank the tank balanced that out to barley making my $ back
How bout c.j.miles
Walrus Ive been playing some on fantasyace and appreciate all you do. WIth only two games be very close tonight
I think Teague is close to a must have. He knows he fcked it up at the end of game 4
Whatever happens tonight and whatever the outcome, most folks will still be second guessing what they did wrong. There just is no perfect recipe for success in this short slate.
Best advice for a two game slate on the GPP’s. Diversify Diversify Diversify
Good luck to everyone tonight !!
I love DeRozan in GPP tonite. His ownership will be low for a 2 game slate. We’ve seen guys really pick it up at home so far in the playoffs, particularly after bad performances. He’s got the possibility to go off tonite. I actually like Shroeder on the punt. Teague has gone into funks at times this season, and when so Shoreder’s minutes usually pick up. He’s below 3,000 tonight, which is just crazy IMO
How do you guys feel about scola geting bench and have some crazy big game and Patterson being a busted
The four guys I “trust” the most are Thomas, Horford, George and Milsap and no matter how I manipulate the optimizer can’t find a lineup I feel good about that doesn’t have one or two spots that feel shaky at best. Don’t ever play multiple lineups in GPP but boy this feels like the night to do it. If you can’t stomach going cheap at PG you are forced to fade one of the safer building blocks. Just seems like a great night to roll 3-4 lineups with the different boom/bust punt options.
I wouldnt do a gpp unless you are going at least 10 lineups deep. Its either 10 minimum one one flier for me
Tonight’s premier FantasyAces lineup. Please note, this is dependent on Myles Turner STARTING (he is currently projected to start but you never know). With a 6pm start time please be ready to pivot to Marcus Smart if Turner does not start. Good luck everyone!
G J.Teague 30.76 5,100.00
G E.Turner 27.68 4,500.00
G K.Lowry 37.79 5,800.00
F P.Millsap 37.50 6,100.00
F K.Bazemore 23.15 4,600.00
F J.Crowder 25.88 5,000.00
C J.Jerebko 13.99 3,300.00
Util P.George 39.09 6,200.00
Util M.Turner 23.33 4,400.00
If you’re just joining FantasyAces please use this link:
http://fantasyaces.com/r/TheWalrus82/
Support those that support you!!!
Why don’t you like IT tonight? He’s been awfully consistent.
IT2 Home vs ATL 48.25 fppg
IT2 Away @ ATL 32.75 fppg
Small sample size, but you get the point. The system looks at $/fp/min. There are just simply better ways to spend the money tonight and assume less risk elsewhere. Could he put up another 40 point game? Absolutely. But he has to SCORE to do it. Millsap/George put up a lot of peripheral stats to help w/ their salary (like Turner/Lowry/Baze/Crowder/etc)
I have a couple contrarian anti It lineups tonight along with a couple anti millsap lineups.. mostly because of the super high ownership. If one of those guys puts a dud up, the fading crowd wins.
IT2 has broken 40 fps in 3 out of 4 games this series. George has done it 2 out of 4. Millsap has done it 1 out of 4. At all around the same price point, I would have to stick with the most consistent. The Pacers offense seems to be able to operate more efficiently when they don’t HAVE to rely on George. Same for the Hawks with Millsap. They lost their game. I see them leaning back towards the winning recipe of feeding Horford the ball. But that’s just my take.
I agree with this and a big part of Milsaps big night was Teague and Horford getting into early foul trouble and them just abandoning the game plan.
Having said that… take Milsap… if you don’t roster him your options are what?? On FanDuel you pretty much have to take two of these guys.. Milsap, Turner, Sullinger, Jerebko and Patterson…. For sure I don’t expect Milsap to hit 73fp again but he had more points than the other 4 combined… 73fp to 64fp… Sullinger seems out of favor, Patterson has a ridiculous low ceiling and Jerebko is playing out of this world but can he keep it up??
Should I start millsap? Or not for a freeroll?
Since logic and critical thinking have yielded zippity-do-da for me, I have decided to enter the realm of the semi-ridiculous. So, with that in mind, I have decided to stack the Pacers tonight. They are projected to score the LEAST amount of points of the 4 teams playing tonight, but like I said, sometimes when nothing “sensible” is working, you have to go totally contrarian:
Lowry
Hill
Smart
Ellis
George
Bazemore
Millsap
M. Turner
Vally
This is a FD LU that uses every dollar of the cap, I’m hoping that for once, just ONCE, the bizarre will favor me tonight.
I have something like that Greg, trying to be contrarian. Went Turner over Smart to be safe LOL.
Isn’t this exactly what people are hoping that everyone tries to be cute and bust out while chalk walks thru. Everyone afraid to go chalk and differentiate out of fear of sharing the winnings with everybody else and its the few who actually go chalk that end up cashing. Tomorrow we will be back here like DAMN I should’ve went with so and so
Story of my life, if I went Aminu yesterday instead of Marv Williams, I would have made $2000 instead of $5. Hate myself every morning!
That hurts Ken, we have ALL been there, just keep plugging away man! I faded Aminu as well, who saw that one coming?
Good Luck bro……..one of these days man, one of these days!
Maybe tonight? Why not us?
Zach….I have tried it ALL, especially the chalk plays, it just seems that whenever I play chalk, the chalk turns to dust and doesn’t hit averages. LOL.
I’m not expecting much from the LU I listed above, that’s another reason why it’s worth a shot. Whenever I think I have a solid LU, it ends up being a disappointment. I’m hoping that having NO EXPECTATIONS will pay off. 🙂
Messy Marvin did shit the bed last night
Not to brag but should be counting my winnings here soon once the paypal deposit comes. Thank you Aminu. I just wish I had used the same LU across the board. I would’ve made even more. GL tonight all
Is this a good lineup Lowry, thomas, derozan, korver, George, Carroll, jerekabo, turner and valanculvis
It’s good if you win $$$. Hell, it has about as good a chance as any, I have learned that much for sure. GL
FYI Don’t forget. 6pm est lock on FanDuel tonight.
thought on cory jo tonight?
I can only get my lineup to work with Smart or Ellis but I want Turner. :/
LOL, that’s exactly what I am trying to do right now.. Amazing how FanDuel has you short $100 when you try to switch things around
I went ahead and went with Ellis as he’s bound to come around at some point. Maybe I get lucky. I’m not entering much tonight anyways.
Pat Pat starting tonight. Call me crazy but i think this hurts Myles Turner. Don’t think he can play on the perimeter with Patterson.
How the heck did I miss this being 6pm start tonight? Ah well. Maybe I’ll get lucky. Got to love tv scheduling.
Don’t root for or against the Raptors but Dwayne Casey is about a game and a half away from being fired. Jonas was unguardable the first two games and for some reason he keeps putting Jonas on the bench since those first two games… Even after Mahinmi left and the Pacers went small. Mind boggling… Seems too worried about jump starting Lowry and DeRozan vs just winning the game.
Looks like Bismack was the punt of the night!!
strange days………….sorry I’m late…………had to work extra hours to support my fantasy basketball
first………last night, believe it or not, even with 3 pieces of shit in my line up (felton, kaminsky, and the biggest disgrace ibaka) I still managed 282.5 and won cash in every contest I entered except, of course, the free roll………..that’s 2 good nights in a row…………what’s going on????
second……………tonight I have to believe there is a big coaching problem in Toronto…………OR……………there is a huge problem with the Toronto frontcourt (Patterson….piece of shit tonight, JV………..below acceptable performance………what the hell is going on here?)
third………………my line up for tonight…………
Thomas
Teague
derozan
turner
crowder
George
Patterson jerebko
JV
thoughts?????
well I guess boston is gonna roll over tonight thereby destroying my chances of doing any good tonight……………………….GEEEEEEZ!!!!!!
Should have gone cheap at PG and paid up at every other position. Every single point guard on this slate was absolute garbage tonight!! Gonna miss being able to pick Curry and Paul. Thank goodness for Westbrook!!! Go OKC!!
Thought I was doomed with Lowry, turns out not so much…
SHIT………………………………PURE SHIT………………PURE UNADULTERATED SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SMH……………………..disgraceful…………………absolutely disgraceful……….shameful……………………..NBA!!!!!!!!!!!
Putting the DFS to the side… what a horrible night of NBA basketball. Two games where none of the coaches understand playoff basketball. Game one featured an NBA coach ( Frank Vogel ) who after his team got a huge lead went to the bench and they gave it all away and then DID IT AGAIN in the second half. 17 point lead in the first half and 13 point lead in the second. What a joke. Casey is a mess of a coach for Toronto and got gifted a win. Game two more of the same. Celtics could have put the Hawks away in the first quarter and just refused to throw any sort of knock out punch and then just gave up. Just tough to watch.