Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/17/16

 

Welcome to another day of the grind that is MLB DFS. Today is Sunday which means a full day of baseball fun. We have a full 15 games on the docket today with all besides 1 coming early. Make sure you check the updates article as it will touch on any weather news as well as any other late news. Let's get into it!

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PITCHER

Jon Lester FD 10500 DK 9300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @CHC
FD - 46.08 DK - 26.04

Lester will enter his 3rd start of they ear with a decent start and great peripherals. Lester has pitched well and his velocity is as high as ever. Arrieta showed just yesterday how bad this Rockies lineup can be when out of Coors Field. I expect Lester to carry over Arrieta's stellar performance into one of his own. Lester was great in 2016 as he held both lefties and righties under a .300 wOBA. I am comfortable with Lester in both cash game and tournaments against a weak Rockies lineup.

Patrick Corbin FD 7100 DK 8300
Opponent - SD (Erlin) Park - @SD
FD - 34.06 DK - 18.47

Corbin is the lucky pitcher of the day that gets to take on the putrid San Diego Padres. Corbin is a pitcher with some pedigree as he was a top 10 prospect just a few years ago. While Corbin has struggled against righties, his peripherals suggest he will improve as his BABIP and HR/FB rate were unrealistically high. The Padres are such a great team to target as they pack such a weak punch towards the bottom of the lineup. You can expect to see names like Alexi Amarista, Brett Wallace and Melvin Upton. I prefer Corbin in tournaments as he has blow up potential.

Gio Gonzalez FD 8900 DK 9200
Opponent - PHI (Morton) Park - @PHI
FD - 35.25 DK - 18.63

Gio takes on the Philllies today who are coming off a disappointing game against Max Scherzer. Gio has been a very good pitcher over the last few years and has held both righties and lefties under a .300 wOBA. Gio also has a very good strikeout rate against lefties. Philadelphia will likely throw out some very weak lefties in Ryan Howard, Odubel Herrera and Cedric Hunter. The Phillies are not a team that will take itches and work a pitch count, which is Gio's biggest problem. I am comfortable paying down a bit to Gio in all formats.

Consider - Michael Wacha

CATCHER

Stephen Vogt FD 2400 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Medlen) Park - @OAK
FD - 7.93 DK - 6.34

Vogt has finally turned it on and has a homer in back to back games. He will be taking on another weak arm today in Kris Medlen. I look for Medlen to struggle against this lineup and for Vogt to be right in the middle of it all. Vogt has sported a 130 wRC+ over the past 2 years against righties. His hard hit rate and exit velocity suggest his production will only go up this year. Medlen gave up a .32 wOBA to lefties last year and had an even worse 5.11 xFIP. This is a perfect spot for Vogt and is a great play in all formats.

Miguel Montero FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @CHC
FD - 2.19 DK - 1.73

I hope you are ready to see this name a bunch this year. Montero is going to be hitting 6th or 7th in the best lineup in baseball. Until his prices rises, he should be on your radar day in and day out. The Cubs will be taking on another bad righty in Tyler Chatwood at home with the wind currently blowing out. Chatwood has given up a career .350 wOBA to both righties and lefties. This is just another day you can stack the Cubs and have a great chance to hit big.  UPDATE: Montero unlikely to play as many readers reminded us Ross catches Lester. 

Consider - Russell Martin

 

FIRST BASE

Albert Pujols FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.91 DK - 8.63

Albert Pujols will be taking on the Minnesota Twins and the first pitcher they will see is Kyle Gibson. Gibson is a below average righty who has been equally bad against both righties and lefties. Gibson has more walks than strikeouts this year, which will not turn out well against a team that either strikes out or hits homers. While Pujols has certainly declined, he is still a good hitter and hit 28 homers against righties last season. Pujols is my pick of the night for a homer.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3800 DK 3700
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.71 DK - 9.87

Toronto and Steven Wright have already faced off twice this year and will be seeing each other once again today. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have both hit Wright very well and will continue to do so. I do look at BvP religiously when it comes to the knuckleball. Some guys hit it, some guys don't. Encarnacion does and has hit 5 home runs off of it in his career. I prefer Encarnacion in tournaments as he has a very low floor.

Consider - Byung-ho Park, Freddie Freeman

 

SECOND BASE

Dee Gordon FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL (Chacin) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.21 DK - 9.36

Dee Gordon has been one of the most consistent players in the league over the past 2 seasons and will not slow down this season. Gordon has a great floor and upside due to his high on base percentage and speed. Jhoulys Chacin is not going to be the pitcher that finally shuts down Dee Gordon. Chacin has struggled to keep runners off base and went they get on base, they have been able to steal. Pierzynski is no longer a defensive monster and has struggled to hold runners for a few years now. I am comfortable with Gordon in all formats.

Brian Dozier FD 2700 DK 4400
Opponent - LAA (Tropeano) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.24 DK - 7.29

Dozier and the Twins finally woke up against Jered Weaver in yesterday's contests. Here they will get another average right in Nick Tropeano. Tropeano has given up a combined wOBA of .310 over the course of his career and has not shown any signs of improvement. I expect the Twins to get some runs across once again and Dozier will be right in the middle of it all.

Consider - Rougned Odor

 

SHORTSTOP

Javier Baez FD 2300 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.79

Javier Baez came off the DL yesterday and stepped into the 5 spot in a dynamic lineup. As mentioned above, Chatwood is a very lackluster pitcher and has struggled against both righties and lefties. I am not too worried about Baez still being banged up as he immediately showed some power yesterday with a double. While Baez has not been great against righties in the majority, his minor league track record overrides such a small sample size in my opinion.

Jonathan Villar FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - PIT (Nicasio) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.08 DK - 8.14

I am going to keep rostering Villar if he is in the middle of the lineup and cheap across the industry. Villar gives you some pop at a position lacking just that. Juan Nicasio is not a pitcher I am afraid of and I am not buying the miracle resurgence. Villar has hit righties well with a 112 career wRC+. I prefer Villar in tournaments he is a low floor, high ceiling player. Nicasio is a below average pitcher with a career xFIP of 4.80.

Consider - Addison Russell

THIRD BASE

Kris Bryant FD 4600 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.47

Kris Bryant is just another Cubs player in a great spot. I am not going to go into why they are such great plays as I have already done so twice. Chatwood is a below average righty and will have a lot of trouble dealing with such a dynamic lineup. I personally am comfortable with Bryant in both cash games and tournaments.

Evan Longoria FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @TB
FD - 9.14 DK - 7.24

When you are considering rostering Evan Longoria you need to ask yourself two things. Is he facing a lefty? If yes, is the lefty below average? If yes to both,Longoria is a terrific play. Longo has been a dominant lefty smasher over the course of his career as shown by his 159 career wRC+. I prefer Longoria in cash games as he is a very consistent option against lefties.

Consider - Trevor Plouffe

 

OUTFIELD

Nomar Mazara FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.63
Mitch Moreland FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.46

Mazara and Moreland are both low priced lefties that are very effective against righties. Both Mazara and Moreland have a 132+ wRC+ against lefties, while Moreland has much more power and Mazara speed. Mike Wright has struggled mightily in his young career against lefties with a .392 wOBA and 4 home runs in only 20 innings. I look for these guys to continue their dominance against Mike Wright.

Adam Jones FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Holland) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.66

Adam Jones has historically smashed lefties with a combined wRC+ of 146 over the past 3 seasons. While Derek Holland is an average pitcher, he struggled last year with a .360 wOBA to right handers. His peripherals do not suggest any signs of improvement so we can expect more of the same this year. With a combined match-up wOBA .362, Jones is in a terrific spot to produce. I am comfortable with Jones in all formats as he is not reliant on power for production.

Mike Trout FD 4900 DK 5500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 14.23 DK - 11.11

The Angels are in a great spot today against a weak righty in Kyle Gibson. When the Angels are in a good spot, Trout is in a good spot. While Trout hasn't started off the season bad, he hasn't been himself. Trout hit righties to an astounding 285 wRC+ clip in 2015 at age 23. He will certainly start going crazy soon and you will want to jump on that wagon before the crowd does. Most people will likely gravitate to Bryce Harper which will leave Trout way under-owned.

Consider - Jorge Soler, Christian Yelich, Jose Bautista

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