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Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/9/16
Coming off a night where some of our users won big GPPs and our system's optimal lineup came damn close, you know we aren't taking late season NBA lightly. The Cole Aldrich's of the world have our undying respect.
Things are really winding down now and here's to hoping we have a somewhat less manic lineup lock going into this short slate. Sure, news might drop on us with a whole team sitting. Or whatever. But there are just less teams playing so less moving parts. Thank goodness for small favors.
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A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!
We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy.
POINT GUARD
Damian Lillard - FD 8000 DK 8600
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 38.75 DK Proj. Pts - 41.79
Ricky Rubio - FD 6500 DK 6700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 32.6 DK Proj. Pts - 33.61
They'll be locked horns in a battle of point guards who don't play above average on-ball defense. That's almost a fantasy match made in heaven. Lillard is the safer of the two and they Blazers have been playing him big minutes because they are still jockeying for playoff position. Correct me if I'm wrong (really, please let me know) but they can pass the Grizzlies and get the Clippers in the first round instead of OKC. That's a decent amount of incentive.
Meanwhile Rubio is a guy who can drive you nuts. I don't think he's safe by any means (a theme you'll see from the T-Wolves in this write up). For instance, last game he just decided to shoot 0.0 times from the field. Not an easy thing to do when you're responsible for dribbling the ball up the court. He's more of a tournament play for me tonight because I don't think anyone will roster him. And if he's on the court back to regular minutes there is some upside. Again, so I don't get killed in the comments: NOT SAFE! TOURNAMENT!
Ronnie Price - FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 19.9 DK Proj. Pts - 20.58
Super easy cheap play on the night. The price on Price (I don't get paid the big bucks for nothing) has barely moved since he took over the starting point guard position. In the last two he's averaged an 11/5 along with some steals. The D stats probably aren't sustainable, but the scoring and assists are about good enough on their own.
If you think he sees minutes in the mid 30's then Russell Westbrook would be a great play. But I don't trust it.
SHOOTING GUARD
Devin Booker - FD 6700 DK 6900
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 31.5 DK Proj. Pts - 35.16
From a minutes perspective, Booker is one of the safest guys on this slate and you are going to see a theme with this game. There are just a lot of plays coming out of this matchup. It makes sense in that both of these teams suck. Booker is playing big minutes right now because the Suns' backcourt is so very thin. He's been running minutes close to 40 a night over the short term though I still wouldn't consider him the safest guy ever at these prices. He's so scoring dependent and when the shot isn't falling, he's in trouble. But this is too good of a matchup and he isn't necessarily over-priced.
Zach LaVine - FD 5500 DK 5700
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 25.92 DK Proj. Pts - 27.19
Speaking of scoring dependent two guards, Lavine is in the mix as well today too. I don't love that he saw reduced minutes last game against the Kings. That's a little worrisome considering most of his value is derived from high volume run. Like Booker, he doesn't have a ton to offer outside of putting the ball in the bucket. But he's falling in that mid range today and there is a possibly scenario where you are middling out these lineups.
Consider Klay Thompson if you think the Warriors are full go and the Grizz can hang some.
SMALL FORWARD
Andrew Wiggins - FD 7000 DK 6400
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 31.56 DK Proj. Pts - 32.39
He has the same problem many of his teammates have when it comes to nightly performances. Namely, they are all wildly inconsistent. Sam Mitchell is liberal with the minutes for his starters but that doesn't always translate to high end numbers. A lot of these T-Wolves can disappear for long stretches. Wiggins is one of them though I do like him today if you think he's going to see minutes in the mid-to-upper 30's.
P.J. Tucker - FD 5500 DK 5100
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 24.82 DK Proj. Pts - 26.42
He's been a beast lately thanks in large part to a significant increase in his shot volume and usage. He's been putting up double digit attempts in four of his last five games, conveniently timed with the absence of Brandon Knight. Knight ain't walking back through that door and I think you can keep Tucker penciled in for this kind of use nightly. Oh yeah, and the Pels stink.
James Ennis - FD 3800 DK 3700
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 21.3 DK Proj. Pts - 22.5
James Ennis makes the picks! Again! If you told me this would be the case around October I would have said, "Oh yeah Future Doug, the late season in DFS is a mess where literally anyone can obtain some value." (I'm usually very calm and collected when I talk to my future self) Ennis is starting for the Pels and averaging plenty of minutes to justify b=playing him. He's still basically a punt play and in a great matchup.
POWER FORWARD
Alex Len - FD 5700 DK 5400
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 28.24 DK Proj. Pts - 28.73
Jon Leuer was available last game but it didn't effect Len's minutes too much. He should be in the mid-to-low 30's tonight and I really like the pricing on him at a weak position. He's been all over the place this season with his production and some of that is tied to whether he and Chandler are on the court together. It dips some when they are, but this matchup is just too good on a short slate and I think you need to stack it whenever possible.
Paul Millsap - FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 41.4 DK Proj. Pts - 43.17
You are going to need to get money in somewhere on this slate and I don't see the Durants and Westbrooks of this Saturday as close to safe if they get buzzed in minutes. I see Millsap as a decent floor guy and this game is actually important for both teams as they're fighting it out for a playoff spot. It also helps that power forward is always a tough position to fill, so taking some safety here is a fine play and I like that he's seen increased minutes of late.
Willie Cauley-Stein - FD 5300 DK 4900
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.86 DK Proj. Pts - 26.28
Who the hell knows if Boogie is going to play, but if the big man sits again then WCS is a great cheap play. I really don't mind him even if Cousins is a go.
CENTER
DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10700 DK 10300
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 51.71 DK Proj. Pts - 52.29
Look, if he's a full go tonight then I think Boogie is the top money option on the slate. I don't OKC's going to run their starters much and he could really go off if Karl takes off the restraints. But there's just a good a chance that he doesn't play at all. Man, the Kings. Eesh. This is the piece of news to keep an eye on during the day. I'll hand it to the Kings, they've at least been forthcoming (lately) with their news and we've known early. Let's hope that's the case again tonight.
Alexis Ajinca - FD 4500 DK 4400
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 26.21 DK Proj. Pts - 26.65
You trust the minutes? Me neither. But he started and got a lot of run last night on his way to a beast mode performance. That isn't the say we get the same thing again. New Orleans has been all over the place with their rotations and minutes. You can't trust them even a little. But he's worth a strong consideration at these prices if he's listed as a starter again.
Consider Al Horford
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image sources
- Damian Lillard, Raul Neto: (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
80 Visitor Comments
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Dear doug, What do you think of this lineup for a 10x Booster on DK, Lots of stacking. Price, Booker, Tucker, Milsap, Hereford, Lillard, Harkless, Wiggins. Earlier this year I was cashing in on tourneys all the time (Never big money but placing none the less) However as of late I seem to constantly be coming up short, let me know what you think please and thanks! Been coming to you for advice since the season started.
If anyone used the optimal lineup last night it completely killed it!!! If Randolph would have scored 18 more points the win would have had a comma in it. 223rd out of 86k!! 24$ win on a 2$ entry in a huge tourney…Aldrich was the dark horse of the night! DFSR customer for life here. You guys that don’t have the premium plan are missing out without the optimizer for basketball and baseball, have won plenty of slates using it while in a time crunch.
Got one even easier… If we would have played nerlens Noel instead of Randolph we would’ve tied for 1st! I also placed 223rd using the optimizer! Great night guys!!
So crazy how small of a difference between $24 and $10k
Lol.. Al Hereford. Hereford is a type of cow, nm. I hate Gordon Hayward but he saved my butt last night and most people didn’t pick him. 2.5% owned on DK. Wasn’t in the optimizer but picked him last second after Lowry sat out with half my team locked in. It was still a recommendation from u guys and I thank u again. You guys rule!
Ha. Sorry about that. Auto-corrected it. I’ve been using Chrome but Safari must not recognize all of our NBA bros.
Btw, if you’re not gonna pay for the service.. Then don’t ask for “free” advice.
Nah, anyone ask anything. We try our best to answer everything. Can’t always do it. But this is mine and James and Blake’s full time job. We want to get to as much as we can.
I mean I would love to but I’m 19 years old jumping between my parents houses trying to figure out what the fuck to do with my life I find temporary solace in playing DFB so I mean I’m sure once my life settles a bit I will more than willingly pay the 15$ a month but until then I’m just freeloading (what’s new) so dear Joseph please fuck right off. Thanks bud.
ON FIRE !!!!
Great night. Markieff had me worried for awhile but then busted it out of the box.
Just won 25k hotshot! $3 into 2k using build my own lineup with suggestions from the articles posted on here and comments (sorry guys, I used Reggie Jackson in GPP despite article recommending for cash lol)
BOOOM! Screenshot to doug@dailyfantasysportsrankings.com if you want. Super solid. Love the big scores.
Sorry Joseph, but people that come here want to do well. We all want people to win money; that’s the whole point of this site, that’s the whole point of the picks (which happen to be free advice by the way) the editors/owners write up.
The disrespect isn’t ok.
We love the community that’s building here. It was totally unexpected. We’ve been writing for going on three years now and rarely had folks commenting. Now, 200+ comments a day. Crazy. We are looking into adding a chat feature that will streamline some of this discussion.
Set my lineups with optimizer in the movie line getting popcorn, took 10 mins, $20–>$186…thanks again!
You guys do a great job. I happened across this site last year by accident while looking for a place that had football picks, and they were so good I’ve been here ever since.
So yea, just keep up the good work fellas.
My bad.. I’m drinking. Good picks, no offense
I love this site, the info and the people that add to the comment section.
Ive yet to win big but Im closer now thanks to this site.
None taken, I’m pretty stressed out right now tbh so I may have even over reacted a bit. Any thoughts/advice towards this lineup fellas? (Assuming Boogie plays) Farmar, Ennis, Cunningham, Millsap, Ajinca, Frazier, Cousins, Westbrook. I know your weary of Westbrook but I just have a strange feeling he’s gonna try and beat Magics Triple dub record.
Hey, come on. Don’t tell people to fuck off in here, leave that for somewhere else. Come on.
Turned a free entry into $17. THe NBA opti had me worried this week. Hope it stays hot heading into the playoffs.
Great website indeed. Keep it up everyone!
Does anyone know how Fanduel will be working for the Playoffs? Will it run like normal?
Guys, I became a pro member bout two months ago. I can’t thank you enough! I’ve had two $200+ wins this week and two $600 this week including tonight! I know we can’t expect miracles being fantasy sports, but when your advise is on, it’s ON!!!!!
You know, this was actually my New Year’s Resolution this year (I know, “start gambling” isn’t usually a resolution haha). On my very first entry I wanted help on how to make a lineup so I searched up a few sites before coming on this one. I love how the picks are written by humans for humans, with a little bit of humor here and there to brighten one’s day, Lord knows I’ve actually laughed sometimes reading these. To make a long story short, I read your articles every single day and check the Comments section every 10 minutes and I can say that this website has actually changed my life. Thanks DFSR crew and thanks community, you guys are freaking awesome! (Oh yeah not to mention I’ve won a ton of money thanks to you guys!)
309 points last night, WITH LOWRY’S DNP keeping me from the big money, grrr, oh well, you live, you learn…
It’s just crazy how one player is the difference between $20 and $10K. The $10K winner had one different player in his lineup than I did. Oh well. Thanks guys for a splendid night! I won in ALL my GPPs and 50/50s for the tune of $200.00+. It was a great night and my bankroll is as high as it ever has been since going Pro.
Doug a little help with the optimizer. What is best for results variance? Can you explain what this means exactly?
Agree, a little clarity.
And, when you say that the lineup optimizer scored big, to which settings are you referring? Is it the standard 1 lineup and 0 variance?
Doug and crew, I want to say thank you. You guys are great. I was one player away from taking down 2 GPPs… In the end, I won a lil over $1200. Thanks again for your great work!
Does the DFSR Classic give an optimal lineup for the night? I really don’t understand the difference between the two. Also, will the site be updated for fantasyaces for us New Yorkers that are out of the loop, thanks.
@RedSox: No, the Classic gives you the same projections but it’s up to you to put together your Line UPs. you can however take the projections and spit it into another optimizer if you like. But if the projections keep changing throughout the day, you’ll have to constantly download them to put into another optimizer.. kinda annoying so i think it’s worth it to just upgrade to the pro. just my opinion.
Won 10k last night all thanks mostly to the optimizer and (David west) lol
About a week ago, after reading positive comment after positive comment about the optimizer for a couple of weeks, I decided to make the $30 jump. My first week was shaky as i was learning the ropes, but thanks to the DFSR team, i turned $6 last night (I don’t throw around a lot of cash) into $440. Thank you all very much, i certainly couldn’t have done it without your optimizer!
little help here from the team/experienced players please. Are you consistently doing separate lineups in gpp than 50/50s? I read the ebook, have pro, but I use the optimizer most nights and fall short in gpp and 50/50s lately. Any suggestions on building solid lineups for each type of game would be helpful. Thanks for the suggestions already! Winning 5$ in a free golf tourney (currently) and I’m not even sure how golf is played 🙂
What was ur line chinedu?
Jackson, Crawford, the alphabet, thomas Robinson, Aldrich, walker and melo (who stunk). Mostly from recommends from site and the comments section of articles.
Sorry and Russell
JJ freaking killed me
Hope that optimum changes, I really don’t want to pick mirotic
Death by Mirotic! It already changed system downgraded his minutes by 2 and that’s all it took. Second lineup was only .05 points behind it before that.
Thanks doug, been here since the beginning i finish 12 ytd and turn 25 into 750 but I’m still mad at me because i replaced Hayward for Anthony at the last minute and finish 8.3 points behind the leader, but anyways it was a great night, good luck everyone and keep up the good work.
I doubled my bankroll last night with the optimal lu as of 6:45. Thanks guys!
Where do you find the optimal lineup at
Cashed everywhere despite having 90% exposure to Barea and his 1st quarter injury. Had i listened to the optimizer and gone Reggie instead of Barea, i would have been in 2nd right behind Chinedu in that hot shot tourny!
Great work Doug and DFSR crew, you guys know whats up.
Hope i’m not going overboard in the comments some days, spewing my thoughts all over the place, but having a great time tossing around ideas and winning money with you all.
Let’s get it tonight.
I’m trying to use the Pro Optimizer and I’m getting a pop up that says “Lineup Lab service Unavailable”. Anybody else having trouble? I’ve been a Pro member for a few weeks now and haven’t had any problems before today
Yeah i just tried and got the same thing. They are usually pretty quick on things. My guess is this is fixed in 15-20 minutes, definitely not working at the moment.
Thanks, Reid. Good luck today
Took a break from Basketball and only entered the free games… 355on the optimizer and took $110 from $0! Focused on baseball instead and not basketball for first night this season!!! AHHHHH!!. That’s DFS for ya!!!! Great line up.
Optimizer down
Ran the optimizer just before news that Lowry was resting. Didn’t get him pulled in time. No worries. STILL CASHED. I owe you dudes a beer…
I drink just about anything!
I had 6 lineups ( all in $2 tournaments ) and won $157.00. one hundred fifty seven return on ten dollars . SWEET !! Now if I could just figure out the baseball lineups. I have been terrible at them . ANy tips on MLB would be welcome. I love this site. Keep up the good work .
What happens when MLB games are cancelled oir postponed at the last minute ?
If you have players in your lineup from those games they get zeros.
Lebron rested last time Out for the Cavs so do you think the other guys in Cleveland will rest this time out per say Kyrie & Love and also i see DFSR is getting big it’s good to see it growing so rapidly since i’ve been with you guys since the very beginning currently over 75K winnings total in that time. Let’s keep the good times rolling
Question- I am a big basketball fan (I watch almost every game every night) but I’m not into other sports so much. Can I sign up but cancel my membership after the NBA season is over and start again next season or will I have to keep paying in the offseason? Thanks!
Missouri just banned DFS for the time being. Ridiculous
ok news just came in Tyronn Lue just said everyone is available for todays game so no cavs will be rested
Do you guys recommend playing in tournaments or double ups in draftkings?
Doug a little help with the optimizer. What is best for results variance? Can you explain what this means exactly?
Nevermind on Missouri, bug in system
Any thoughts on Enes Kanter? He had a monster game against Portland, don’t see why he shouldn’t follow suit tonight. His price isn’t bad low floor high ceiling to me
Why Frazier over Douglas? Why price over Goodwin? Seem like the obvious contrarian plays for each one
Douglas is coming off the bench Frazier is getting more minutes and is producing better
Just signed up for this much praised optimizer excited to see what happens! Question though: how do I know if this thing is giving me lineups for gpp or cash ?
Optimizer is generating lineups basically based around cash games, though many times it scores high enough to place in tourneys as well.
Hey, I just signed up for your free trial this morning & was putting lineups=
together when I decided to go pro. Now I’m putting a lineup together with p=
ro but it keeps saying no slot open when I try & add a player. Can’t figure o=
ut how to erase my old lineup or just start over again. Sorry, new user. Thanks
Hey Steve. Email me a screenshot of issue at doug@dailyfantasysportsrankings.com
So nobody has taken down a gpp using this thing yet? Or placed top ten ?
We’ve had folks win GPPs. Personally, I used the system top lineups to a ticket into the FBWC on DraftKings and took down about 20K in that one tournament. Others have won tournaments as well.
That’s awesome! Hoping this $30 will be well worth the investment !
Doug, do you think James and Durant will play tonight
Seems like they are both going to play, just not sure how many minutes.
Why is it i ask on this site & email a subscription question I cant get an answer? Is it cause Im not seeking advice that the answer not being given. A little disappointed on the service that I pay for.
I may try my luck with the optimizer to take down a gpp. Any suggestions tonight on high ceiling guys?
Just signed up so this is my first day using the optimizer. For best results should I lock in some guys and then optimize or just go with the optimized lineup?
Hey Doug, when you guys do the write ups on the nba picks can you possibly put both cash and tourney picks on there?
I have tried to do the free trial three times,
But I don’t see the optimizer anywhere.
Is it supposed to be instant?
Ronnie Price really messed up my night.