Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 3/3/16

Short Slate Thursday – Three dogs and a Fray by the Bay. There is blowout risk all over the place, but exactly how much is difficult to quantify (only one game has a firm line posted offshore). Which games do you like to stay close (and why)? Should you load up on GSW/OKC and avoid the risk as much as possible? Then there’s the question of the night: what’s up with Steph Curry’s ankle? The Dubs may clear that up sooner in the day than later, but if not, site selection (DK's game-time lineup lock provides limited protection) and last-minute lineup management may be crucial. You could just fade the risk and be done with it (which doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be taking on less risk than others). But that just lessens your options on a night with few enough to begin with. Interesting questions. Let’s look at some possible answers.

If you want to grab a free trial of the winning projections that inform each and every one of these picks, check out our NBA Optimal Lineups, Projections, Player Cards and Google Chrome extension that auto-populates your lineups into FanDuel. While the seasons overlap, you'll get access to our tools for the NBA and NHL (and MLB when the time comes)! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NBA? Be sure to read our free NBA Ebook on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Hope to see you there!

We've also launched a Stats and Research Page, which includes a lot of the individual statistics that we use to make our projections. It's free! Enjoy,

POINT GUARD

Tony Parker - FD 5300 DK 5200
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 26.17 DK Proj. Pts - 26.88

I never like leading off with one of the Spurs Big Three (Patients). Tonight, the value is simply too high to ignore. He’s the highest rated PG on a PP$ basis on FD and DK. Monsieur Park-air has had a hard floor of 4x for nearly a month, and his ceiling in this game is sky-high. Going into details about this matchup would not be, I think, a terribly useful exercise. The chances things get out of hand are pretty high, but that’s the theme of the night. You can spend up elsewhere by taking the value here, then sweat it out with the rest of us.
Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 11200
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 53.59 DK Proj. Pts - 55.49

If you want as close as there is to a lock, here’s your chance. Even if Curry plays a full complement of minutes, Russ-diculous is likely to pay value on every single one of the $11,000+ it’ll take to roster him. That makes him a superior play even if Curry suits up. He went for a mere 51 on FD against the Warriors on Saturday, while hitting 5x on DK. Our system likes him to eclipse his numbers from that game on both sites. Even if Curry plays, the elite PG value is right here. He also presents the best risk/reward of the five big guns on the slate. One question answered?

Darren Collison - FD 5400 DK 5500
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 25.04 DK Proj. Pts - 26.33

Collison is another relatively inexpensive PG alternative. He has been getting 30+ minutes of court time for a while now, and we like that trend to continue. With his run has come fantasy production, which should also follow, regardless of game script. From an analytical standpoint, Dallas is bottom-3rd in DvP against point guards. Further, a decent number of opportunities should be there even if it isn’t terribly close, as the Kings’ league-leading Pace should counter-balance the Mavs’ plodding style. No firm O/U here, but it shouldn’t be nearly as low as the typical Dallas contest. Comparing him to Parker, he’s a touch more expensive, has a higher ceiling and a lower floor. If you can’t stomach Parker or are looking for a possible tourney play, this could be your man.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Dwyane Wade - FD 7500 DK 7100
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 37 DK Proj. Pts - 37.55

D-Wade has been consistently on the floor, and consistently producing. He displayed a hard 4x floor for most of February, with spikes like a near-7x a week ago. The DFSR projections like him as the top option at this position, and the gap is substantial on FD. The usual Suns Suck caveat applies both to their game and their defense of this position. It’s hard, however, to avoid that problem (or something similar) with this group of games. If he gets his lower-30’s minutes, he’ll produce.

Klay Thompson - FD 7300 DK 7900
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 33.01 DK Proj. Pts - 36.58

The (Other) Splash Brother was terrible from the floor last time out, but came through when it counted. With his running mate sidelined, he put on a Brick Clinic with a 6-for-27 night from the field. DFS owners didn’t care as he produced as usual. His post-ASB game log has a blip from the Orlando game a week ago, but it’s sandwiched by 3-out-of-4 6x performances. The Pace and O/U should speak for themselves, while OKC does not defend the SG position particularly well (20th in the league). If Curry’s out, we saw how many shots he’ll hoist, and you can increase his projections accordingly. If not, he’s still a solid value and decent place to park some above-average money.

Josh Richardson - FD 3700 DK 3500
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 16.01 DK Proj. Pts - 18.25

The only reason Wade isn’t head-and-shoulders above everyone on DK is this punt play. Since becoming the backup point almost by default, he has seen his minutes shoot up, but he has also produced during those minutes. Among the bevy of high-risk games tonight, J-Rich’s floor time seems safer than most. Who else are they going to play at the point if/when it comes time to send Dragic to the bench? If a Wade/Thompson backcourt doesn’t excite you, on DK consider this an alternative (and spend the boatloads of money on a superstar). The DFSR system does _not_ like him on FD, so consider yourself warned.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Kawhi Leonard - FD 8000 DK 7700
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 37.76 DK Proj. Pts - 39.33

Outside of KD, this is not a terribly attractive position for the night. Kawhi is the outlier and, (altogether now) if he gets his minutes, should perform quite well on a PP$ basis. He is the Spur least likely to get his court time buzzed, and even if he does he won’t kill you, with a floor a lot higher than I expected (I went back to double-check when I saw it). His ceiling is not over-the-top, but Leonard is a fairly solid play in the sub-premium price tier. If you want to avoid Studs-n-Duds, he’s a top option.

Kevin Durant - FD 10600 DK 10300
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 48.46 DK Proj. Pts - 51.26

Speaking of KD… There are five elite options tonight, and on DK they are all projected in a cluster around 5x. With one far from certain (and another a walking uncertainty), that leaves limited options for cash saved elsewhere. If you want to avoid blowout risk and stack OKC, I can endorse that, making Durant your man. Note that on FD the system does not like him (or Steph) nearly as much as the other top-end options.

Harrison Barnes - FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 19.44 DK Proj. Pts - 20.81

Barnes is a legit SF option on FD regardless of injury outcomes due to his salary. At a near-punt price, I can see pocketing some change here and spending on Russ (or Boogie if you judge the risk tolerable). He comes with his own risk, but quite a bit of upside on this site. On DK he’s simply a poor value… IF the “Other A.I.” plays. If not, Barnes becomes a lock, all lineups, all game types, both sites. The minutes will be too heavy to pass up. Not much more to say.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10200 DK 9800
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 49.41 DK Proj. Pts - 50.14

If he (gets to and) stays on the floor, the Brow is the top elite option on DK for the night. On FD, he’s right there with Russ. His inherent risk (Being Anthony Davis) and the blowout risk scream tourney to me. He might even be in some winning cash lineups as well. Some people just like having him in their lineup ( I might personally categorize these people as irrational, but his ownership percentages always seem higher than I expect). If you can choke down the negative potential, the upside is there as always. That fits the tourney profile to a “t.”

Serge Ibaka - FD 5900 DK 5900
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 28.22 DK Proj. Pts - 29.91

With the AD question an outlier, PF is not terribly strong on this slate, particularly on FD. Most nights, Serge arrives at the arena, Serge plays, and Serge puts up something around a 5x. Then there are his last two outings. A 3x following up an 8.5x is not typical Ibaka. The DFSR system likes him to do his thing, with a reasonable floor and some upside (but not 8x+ upside). If you can’t stomach AD, the options are limited at the 4, and this average-priced option is pretty much your best one on FD. His PP$ expectation is similar on DK, there just happen to be a couple of different options there that are not nearly as attractive on FD…

Dirk Nowitzki - FD 6700 DK 6200
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 30.68 DK Proj. Pts - 32.6

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 7300 DK 6600
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 34.43 DK Proj. Pts - 35.16

… And those would be Dirk and LMA. The deep discounts and favorable scoring system make both of these guys top picks on DK. With high floors, the risk is game-based, not positional. SAC is well below average DvP here, while the Pels are decent but not spectacular (and I just can’t see the comparably slight Davis keeping Aldridge off the glass). On DK, spending just under $13k on this duo seems like a legit option, and one that would be in line with a mid-range salary lineup construction.

 

CENTER

Alex Len - FD 5300 DK 5600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 29 DK Proj. Pts - 29.52

As a pure value proposition, the Center position begins and ends right here. Len is coming off a 7x backed by a 10x and his coach seems committed to his minutes. He’s projected to be nearly a half-point better than the next-best Center on FD (something you just don’t see every day when a punt’s not involved). He’s also a top value on DK (_the_ top value unless you like base-jumping).

Tyson Chandler - FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 21.94 DK Proj. Pts - 22.41

If you want some variation for tourneys or just don’t like Len (not a great basis for decision-making in DFS), his frontcourt mate is cheaper and still pretty damn good. On most nights he might very well be a top pick. Just not tonight. Even if you run Len, consider Chandler for Utility on DK.

Oh, and for you base-jumpers out there, an (extra free) freebie: Timmmaaaaay! System loves him, especially on DK.

So yeah, basketball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our NBA eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy NBA lineup. It's free, below.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM!

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY NBA!

And Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings every day!