Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot for Championship Weekend

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Championship weekend is the toughest week of the season to play NFL DFS. Not only are there only four teams, but also there are four good defenses involved. There’s not much of an edge to be had on such a short slate, other than taking advantage of overlap in GPPs by playing dart-throws such as Corey Brown and J.J. Nelson. Below, I essentially ranked the players at each position, but in many cases, I listed cons along with pros.

QUARTERBACK

Cam Newton - FD 8500 DK 7200
Opponent- ARI
Newton projects as the highest-scoring QB option on the short slate, as his Panthers have a team total of 25.3 – by far the largest of the four teams in action. Combine that with the fact that Newton led the NFL with 45 total TDs (35 passing, 10 rushing) during the regular season (good for 83% of Carolina’s offensive TDs), and Newton has the most TD upside of any player on the slate. Of the four defenses that will be in action this Sunday, the Cardinals finished the regular season having allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Carson Palmer - FD 7700 DK 6800
Opponent- CAR
While Newton projects to score the most fantasy points of any QB, Palmer may have the most upside relative to his cost, as he comes at a discount to Newton. As of this writing, Panthers-Cardinals has an over/under total that is currently 3.5 points higher than Patriots-Broncos, which is good news for both passing games involved. Carolina’s defense will likely be able to shut down one of Arizona’s boundary WRs (typically Michael Floyd and John Brown) with Josh Norman, but may struggle elsewhere, as they are starting their fourth-string and fifth-string cornerbacks. Last week, Carolina permitted 366 passing yards and three TDs to Russell Wilson.

Tom Brady - FD 8100 DK 7400
Opponent- DEN
The Patriots’ team total is 23.5 (second highest on the slate) and Brady has accounted for 78% of their offensive TDs during the regular season (and all three in last week’s victory over the Chiefs). Denver’s defense is stout, but Brady was able to post 280 passing yards and three TDs on the Broncos back in Week 12, and that was without the services of Julian Edelman, who is now healthy.

Peyton Manning - FD 6700 DK 5500
Opponent- NE
While Manning is the worst QB play of Championship Sunday, it is worth noting that he is also the cheapest, and projects as a better $/point value than most non-QBs. Manning should be viewed as a punt play that can help you spend on studs at other positions. He did look functional last weekend, going 21-37 for 222 yards, albeit against a Pittsburgh pass defense (15th in pass defense DVOA) that is not as strong as New England’s (13th). Ultimately, Manning’s numbers will depend on his receivers hanging on to the ball (something they had trouble with last week) and making plays after the catch.

RUNNING BACK

David Johnson - FD 8000 DK 6500
Opponent- CAR
We’re looking for volume when selecting a RB in DFS, and Johnson continues to see a ton of touches—he racked up 21 more last week. In six games since taking over the starting role, he is averaging 21.3 touches for 122.7 yards and 0.8 TDs. Johnson’s struggles on the ground over the last two games (26-60, 2.3 YPC) and Carolina’s strong run defense (6th in rush defense DVOA) are concerning enough to the point where Jonathan Stewart would be the preferred play on FanDuel, where Stewart is $1,000 cheaper. Johnson’s activity in the passing game (4.2 receptions per game over his last five games—including six last week) keeps him squarely in play as the top RB option on DraftKings.

Jonathan Stewart - FD 7000 DK 5900
Opponent- ARI
Discounting a Week 14 game against Atlanta where he was forced to leave early due to injury, Stewart has been fed (relax Eddie Lacy, not that kind of fed) at least 20 touches in nine consecutive games. The only reason Johnson is slightly preferred (on DraftKings) is because Stewart has only caught more than one pass twice during that span and thus is more susceptible to negative game script. Nevertheless, game flow projects to be in Stewart’s favor, as the Panthers are home favorites. It is worth noting that the Cardinals gave up a 61-yard run to the aforementioned Lacy, but permitted only 53 yards on the other 19 carries by Green Bay RBs (2.8 YPC).

C.J. Anderson - FD 6300 DK 4400
Opponent- NE
Anderson seemed to take control of Denver’s backfield as last week’s game progressed, turning his 17 touches into 83 yards and a score while Ronnie Hillman managed only 38 scoreless yards on his 16 touches. Anderson has now scored a TD in three straight games, with four carries inside the 5-yard line compared to Ronnie Hillman’s one during that span (it is also worth noting that the Broncos have not thrown a pass inside the 5-yard line during that span). Anderson had his best game of the season with 113 rushing yards and two TDs when these teams met in Week 12. Among concerns for Anderson are the fact that the Broncos are a road underdog, the fact that Bill Belichick may scheme to limit Anderson after his previous success, and even Hillman’s potential reemergence.

James White - FD 6400 DK 4600
Opponent- DEN
Last time the Patriots played the Broncos, New England repeatedly put their RBs in positions where they would be matched up with linebackers to exploit Denver’s man coverage. Brandon Bolden did most of the damage that day, with four catches for 83 yards and a TD, but Bolden has since fallen out of favor and White has become New England’s main threat out of the backfield. Over his last six games, White is averaging five catches, 59 yards, and 0.5 TDs. During the regular season, the Broncos allowed the eighth-most receptions in the NFL to RBs. The bad news is White almost has to be productive in the receiving game to provide any type of value – he’s carried just 10 times over his last six games.

WIDE RECEIVER

Julian Edelman - FD 7800 DK 7500
Opponent- DEN
With nothing but strong pass defenses remaining, Edelman is the top play at WR based on his target volume (10.4 targets/game, including playoffs) and the type of high-percentage targets he gets. For example, in last week’s victory over the Chiefs, Edelman turned 16 targets into only 100 yards for a relatively inefficient 6.3 yards per target. However, his 10-catch, 100-yard day was great for fantasy. Even if Denver’s stout pass defense does not allow Edelman to do much damage after the catch, he’s still a safe bet to rack up a ton of catches.

Larry Fitzgerald - FD 8000 DK 6900
Opponent- CAR
I could laud Fitzgerald for his 109-catch, 1,215-yard season or his 8-catch, 176-yard demolition of the Packers last week, but Fitzgerald has other things working in his favor. Firstly, he is the only Cardinals receiver likely to completely avoid the coverage of Josh Norman. Second, head coach Bruce Arians stated that he runs specific plays for Fitzgerald in scoring position when the team needs a “lift”, which they will likely need as road underdogs in the NFC Championship game. Fitzgerald leads Arizona in red zone targets this season (21).

John Brown - FD 6500 DK 5200
Opponent- CAR
Josh Norman’s coverage is certainly a concern for both Brown and Michael Floyd, but Brown moves around enough to still be (he played roughly a third of snaps on each of the left side, slot, and right side, per PFF) a viable option on the short slate due to his friendly price tag (especially on FanDuel, where he is $1,000 cheaper than Michael Floyd). Brown piled up over 1,000 receiving yards this season and was second on the team in red zone targets (19), slightly behind Larry Fitzgerald (21). Another positive for Brown is that Tyler Lockett – a similar player to Brown – was able to put up a 3-75-1 line last week despite the presence of Norman on the outside.

Emmanuel Sanders - FD 7400 DK 6300
Opponent- NE
When the Broncos and Patriots met in Week 12, Sanders posted a 6-113 line on 9 targets while Demaryius Thomas posted a 1-36 line on 13 (yes, 13) targets. Because both Sanders and Thomas account for such large share of Denver’s passing offense, both are solid plays. I’d give the edge to Sanders, however, based on his cheaper price tag, previous success against New England, and higher likelihood to produce a big play downfield.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 7000 DK 7100
Opponent- ARI
Remember a few years back when the Cardinals were abysmal against TEs? Well, they closed out the regular season ranked 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs this year as well. Because Olsen comes at a discount to Rob Gronkowski, he is the top dollar-for-dollar play at the position. Olsen is averaging a strong 4.9 catches for 69.5 yards and 0.5 TDs this season (including playoffs).

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8900 DK 7600
Opponent- DEN
Concerns about Gronk’s knee and back proved to be overblown last week, as he shredded Kansas City’s top-ranked defense against TEs for a 7-83-2 line on eight targets. This week, he’ll take on a Broncos defense that finished the regular season ranked 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. He posted a strong 6-88-1 line on 10 targets against Denver in Week 12 before exiting with a knee injury.

Owen Daniels - FD 5000 DK 2300
Opponent- NE
Daniels is the third-ranked TE on the slate strictly by default, as he is a larger part of Denver’s offense than any TE in the Arizona offense. That being said, don’t expect much from Daniels, who is averaging 2.9 catches for 32.3 yards this season. That is better than Arizona’s TE, Darren Fells, who averages 1.5 catches for 22.2 yards per game.

DEFENSE

New England Patriots
New England’s defense faces easily the softest offensive matchup on the slate against an aging Peyton Manning. This season, Manning has thrown 17 interceptions in only 11 games. New England is a three-point road favorite and Denver’s team total (20.5) is the lowest of the four teams in action.

Carolina Panthers
On a large slate, the Panthers wouldn’t normally be in play against an offense as explosive as the Cardinals (4th in offensive DVOA). However, the Panthers are the only team on the slate with the distinction of being home favorites, which is the ideal scenario for a fantasy defense.

Denver Broncos
The third-ranked defense comes down to the Broncos and the Cardinals. The Broncos get the edge because they are at home and facing the third-ranked scoring offense rather than the top scoring offense. Furthermore, the Broncos face a Patriots team that has a team total of 23.5, lower than the Cardinals’ opponent, Carolina, who has a team total of 25.3.

Good luck on Championship Weekend, and be sure to check out DFSR’s free eBook!

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