Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/18/16

Martin Luther King Jr. Day! We can sit around reflecting upon one of the greatest ever American heroes while also sweating out a huge all day slate of daily fantasy basketball. Or, if you're like me, you can sweat the Cavs/Warriors game on your phone while your kids are at the MLK JR. Day thing at your local gymnastics center, swearing at the lousy 4G connection on account of the 7 foot thick cement ceiling. Not bitter or anything. Let's do some picking.

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POINT GUARD

Mario Chalmers - FD 5600 DK 6900
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 32.2 DK Proj. Pts - 33.81
This position begins the way it has for me for what seems like every slate of the New Year. Mike Conley has been upgraded to questionable (don't get me started on what a silly upgrade that is, conceptually) but if I know my NBA speak that means it's more likely than not that he's 2 games away from playing, not 1. If Conley isn't back, that means Chalmers remains criminally underpriced. We saw Rio's floor as a starter last game - he played 13 fewer minutes than he had the game before, and inexplicably found himself on the outside looking in on the Memphis offense. He still scored 4.5x points per dollar on this price. The Pelicans have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. I'll play him everywhere assuming Conley remains sidelined.

Chris Paul - FD 9400 DK 9700
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 44.09 DK Proj. Pts - 45.83
Speaking of colossal let-downs... well, I wasn't speaking of huge let downs. I will start now. I played Chris Paul everywhere during his last start, and was doing some pretty heavy self-back-patting after DFSR co-founder Doug played Damian Lillard over him in spite of our projection system's warnings. Paul then went out and paid less than 3x points per dollar against the fastest team in the league. Yay! Here's the part where I make excuses. CP3 got in some random foul trouble that's not really his style against a strong uptempo point guard. That won't be the case here. In the month of January (coinciding with Blake's absence), Paul has led the league in time of possession per game by a full half minute with an astounding 8.5 minutes per game. By contrast, Steph Curry and LeBron James possess the ball for 5 minutes per game. Having the ball in your hands that much simply raises your floor and ceiling. I love him against the Rockets, who play the 9th fastest PACE in the league.

Ish Smith - FD 6900 DK 7400
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 31.3 DK Proj. Pts - 32.15
These are the chalkiest plays ever, but whatevs, hopefully you know by now that common plays are usually that way for a reason. Confession time: watching Ish play is a serious guilty pleasure of mine. He's not much of a defender, but he really has some serious offensive game. He leads the league in drives per minute (thanks SportVU data) for guys with 25 or more minutes per game this season, and he's a willing and capable passer. For a frame of reference, his 47% pass rate on his drives is almost identical to Ricky Rubio's, and is higher than Rajon Rondo's. I just kinda love the guy. Today he'll be up against the well-intentioned Jose Calderon, who would realistically have trouble staying in front of me if I were out there. Potential for a huge, huge game here.

Donald Sloan - FD 4200 DK 4500
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 19.51 DK Proj. Pts - 20.61
Because I can't just give you all the highest % starts. In his last 5 games Sloan has 2 phenomenal performances on these prices, 2 good performances, and 1 dud. It's the wrong price if he's going to keep playing 25+ minutes out of the starting lineup, and it looks like the new regime in Brooklyn is prepared to let him do so. Very interesting high upside guy.

SHOOTING GUARD

Tony Allen - FD 4500 DK 5200
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 23.94 DK Proj. Pts - 24.52
Allen's getting very little respect in the daily fantasy basketball community right now, if his start percentages are to be believed. And I don't totally get it. He's locked in to 32-33 minutes per game right now, and has two very safe skills (rebounding and steals) that are unusual for the position. He's had 2 weird games in a row where he paid just 4x points per dollar on these prices, but those came on the heels of 3 games where he paid nearly 7x points per dollar in this exact same role. Again, keep an eye out for Conley here... but in a matchup with the Pelicans (who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season), I just love the guy.

Avery Bradley - FD 5100 DK 5500
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.39 DK Proj. Pts - 26.4
Yes, it might be go cheap day at shooting guard. Bradley is playing huge minutes for the Celtics right now, largely because he's a perimeter defender so far and above any of Brad Stevens' other options. He's far from off radars right now thanks to a 6x points per dollar performance when he took 21 shots against the Suns, but you don't need to be against the grain in your 50/50s tomorrow. Wes Matthews is a good defender, but when it comes to Bradley the depressed price more than makes up for the difference he makes. Very safe 50/50 play.

James Harden - FD 9500 DK 9900
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 44.96 DK Proj. Pts - 47.46
Our projection system is still crushing on James Harden. The major reason here is just the price. The NBA is very much a "what have you done for me lately" league, but proven commodities like Harden don't all of a sudden change in value by 7 fantasy points per game the way this price has suggested. The shots are still there, the minutes are still there - we're just in a little bit of a dry spell right now. I wouldn't be surprised if he wound up in all of our optimal lineups considering JJ Redick will be chasing him around. Fine play in any format.

Also considered: Evan Fournier. Might be a higher upside version of Avery Bradley. If Langston Galloway start again, I like him too.

SMALL FORWARD

Marcus Morris - FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 21.93 DK Proj. Pts - 23.97
A blast from the DFSR past! Marcus Morris has back to back games with 40 minutes, and he was fantastic in all phases of the game in the Pistons' beat down of the Warriors, going for 16/8/6 with 2 blocks in a tough match-up with the Harrison Barnes/AI duo. He'll have a much softer match-up with Nikola Mirotic here, and I think he represents a nice high floor play even if we don't see another huge ceiling game out of him.

Tobias Harris - FD 5600 DK 5900
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.35 DK Proj. Pts - 28.9
Do you like unsexy value plays? Then consider Tobias Harris! The guy has 2 games with 40+ minutes in his last 3, and he's criminally under-priced due to 2 bad shooting nights. Not a whole lot of analysis needed here - Harris' true price is something like 10% more than this, making him a high floor/high ceiling candidate in a league average match-up with the Hawks.

Nicolas Batum - FD 7000 DK 7200
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 32.51 DK Proj. Pts - 34.4
I can't say I'm feeling great about this Batum recommendation, what with his injured shoulder lingering and all. This is more a reflection on how awful the position is than anything else. The Jazz are tough on small forwards, but what our projection system is seeing here is just a price/opportunity/skill misalignment. Batum has been about 10% better than these prices suggest, and he's playing enough minutes to rise back up to where he was pre-injury. Still, it still smacks a little bit too much of last year to me, and I won't likely play him.

Our projection system thinks Jae Crowder is just overpriced at this point. I imagine he'll be a huge play, though, so you have been warned!

POWER FORWARD

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 6800 DK 7400
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 35.67 DK Proj. Pts - 36.94
Porzingis has paid 4x points per dollar on these prices in 5 straight games, and was fantastic in 4 of those. Today he'll be in for an interesting situation, as Noel's highlight reel defensive plays haven't really translated into strong interior defense for the 76ers this season. They've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and I have no reason to think Porzingis won't get his here.

Taj Gibson - FD 4800 DK 5800
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 23.51 DK Proj. Pts - 23.92
He only gets second billing because of his now rising DraftKings price, but with Noah out for the year, expect a 20% increase on Gibson's price from here. The Bulls seem to be leaning away from playing Mirotic and Gasol together, and Gibson's rebounding and rim protecting abilities pair very nicely with Gasol's more offensive minded game. Another case of mismatching price and opportunity - I'm a buyer on Gibson at least 10% higher than this even at 30 minutes per game, and I think there's upside for much more here. While we're here, I also like Pau Gasol, though his injury stuff does scare me just a little.

Pau Gasol - FD 8600 DK 8300
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 42.64 DK Proj. Pts - 43.33
Okay, after peeping the other options I decided to give Gasol a write-up of his own. I hate to go all mathy on you here, but here's the thing. He's averaged 37.7 FanDuel points on 31 minutes a game this season. He's now playing a 36 minute rotation, and the only other guy who can play center on his team just went down for the season. Ya dig? There's also one angle I love in this game. You may have noticed that Gasol's having his best career year in blocks. Some have called this unsustainable. The tracking data suggests otherwise. Did you know Pau is leading the league in field goals defended at the rim this season? Did you further know that Reggie Jackson is 2nd in the league in drives per game? I'm sniffing a sneaky big block game here, and I'm talking myself into playing Pau everywhere.

Also considered: Derrick Williams - fantastic play if Melo is out again.

 

CENTER

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6400 DK 6400
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 32.76 DK Proj. Pts - 33.16
If there's anything sicker than being a day late on a guy you love, I don't know what it is. Doug and I talked about how much we loved Okafor for 15 solid minutes in the hour leading up to lineup lock before the last Sixers game, only to play Cousins everywhere. Welp, Okafor popped 25 and 10 before inexplicably getting to rest in the 4th in Philly's first ever blow-out. So while this is a slightly better than league average match-up with the Knicks, what I really like here is that we're seeing Okafor finally develop with a point guard who can actually pass - I think his price climbs to 7k, and I'm a buyer til then.

Marcin Gortat - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 33.9 DK Proj. Pts - 34.44
Big Poland! The man's been a DFSR mainstay all season long, and Gortat will likely march out there and do his thing once again against Portland on Monday. I was too concerned about him coming back from injury to play him against the Celtics, but the lack of big depth on the Wiz forced him into 36 very productive minutes. He'll have a terrific match-up with the awful Portland front-court in this one - they've allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season - and I suspect he'll be underowned if you want to take a stab at him.

Andre Drummond - FD 8800 DK 8900
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 42.51 DK Proj. Pts - 43.28
I realized that I gave you two guys who were so similarly priced that I wanted to throw out a third. Drummond went back to his "man-possessed" routine against the Warriors, posting an unbelievable 22 rebound game against a very tough front court. In this one he'll draw the Bulls, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and who are missing their one real defensive player at the position. I wrote about Gasol's increased blocks earlier, but his below the rim style shouldn't be able to keep Drummond off the glass or away from the rim. Huge upside here, and I like his floor as well.

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