Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/3/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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Quick note on these picks: There is a lot to guess at to start the season. Tons of players have switched uniforms. Teams have slightly changed their approach. Rookies are in the mix. New starting lineups abound. It's somewhat tough sledding until we see some games and get a sense of how teams are going to use players. That being said, we've gone over the data and made a number of adjustments to our system in order to get things as close as humanly (and algorithmic-ally) possible. Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Kyle Lowry - FD 7800 DK 7900
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 35.71 DK Proj. Pts - 38.03
I like when teams are locked into their minutes' structure and that's a theme you'll see in and among the picks tonight (most nights). The Raptors are one of those teams. They have a big three of Lowry, Derozan and Carroll who they are happy to trot out there in big minutes. That kind of safety pays dividends in cash games where you need to just project high floors across the board. Lowry will be one of those guys for me tonight taking on the Mavs who will guard him with either Deron Williams or Ray Felton. So in other words, yes please.

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5400 DK 5900
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 26.44 DK Proj. Pts - 27.59
With rookies it's always tough to know how the season will go as they enter the limelight. Luckily for Mudiay, Denver isn't really the limelight so the pressure is completely off. In Denver the problem isn't pressure, it's the minutes. I want to believe Mudiay's minutes will be there come hell or high water but that hasn't been the case. But his price is still in a range where we can take the risk as he gets used to the NBA game. Mudiay isn't a lights out shooter but his 33% from the field shouldn't continue over the course of the season. And if he can put the points together then these prices will trend real low.

Mike Conley - FD 6600 DK 6800
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 29.95 DK Proj. Pts - 31.67
He's been incredibly efficient with his minutes this season and has a fine enough matchup tonight against the Kings tonight. The big thing about Conley is the price isn't totally out of bounds though I don't think I'd go there on DraftKings as my lone points guard (or even second guard). He strikes me as a safer play just as long as the game doesn't get out of hand with Boogie on the bench for the Kings.

SHOOTING GUARD

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 4900 DK 4900
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 22.46 DK Proj. Pts - 24.65
Shooting guard is a spot to go on the cheaper side for this slate. I don't think you need to spend any king of real dollars at the position and I'd just assume take the most minutes for the lowest salary. KCP is one of those dudes. You are going to see some Pistons on the list for Tuesday because SVG has his starter's minutes locked all the way in. Pope is one of those guys and though he doesn't have much of a ceiling because he's far down the list of offensive options, the minutes keep the floor higher.

Courtney Lee - FD 3900 DK 4200
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 19.16 DK Proj. Pts - 20.58
Another minutes beast that makes up for the lack of overall fantasy production. Lee is a forgotten man in the Grizz starting five, but he does get loads of run. The Kings have been one of the worst teams in the league against the opposing shooting guard over the last couple of seasons and even a moderate showing from Lee pays it off. You are going to be getting bigger money in lower down in these picks so take the savings here when possible.

Marco Belinelli - FD 3800 DK 3800
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 14.57 DK Proj. Pts - 16.03
This is a situation to keep an eye on. Belinelli's minutes are trending in the right direction if Mclemore is falling out of favor. While Ben appears to remain the starter, I like Marco as more of an upside play if he sees the majority of the minutes at the two.

 

 

SMALL FORWARD

Marcus Morris - FD 5800 DK 5600
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 26.69 DK Proj. Pts - 28.75
Stan Van Gundy loves the guy and so do I. Morris is flourishing in Detroit where he's getting enormous run. Morris leads the team in minutes, points per game, is second in rebounds and is looking a little bit of awesome. Imagine when he throws a steal or a block in there? This is another example of price having not caught up with a new found opportunity and you should be playing him wherever possible. The minutes alone warrant a cash game play, the production is through the roof.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 6100 DK 5700
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 28.58 DK Proj. Pts - 30.91
I'm looking to just pile on minutes at small forward today and there are two obvious choices. The first is Demarre who since coming to the Raptors is averaging over 30 minutes per game and has become a big part of the their offense. He's second on the team in field goal attempts after Derozan and if that kind of usage is real then he won't lay a ton of eggs like he did last game. Small forward is a notoriously fickle position. Short of an obvious punt, I'm fine middling with a guy like Carroll who can do little bits of everything on the court.

Consider Danilo Gallinari as a tournament play against the Lakers.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10700 DK 10500
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 50.93 DK Proj. Pts - 51.68
He's a must play across the board. I repeat, he's a must play. The price on Davis has actually come down in the short term which is nuts considering his high end upside and overall fantasy go-like ability. Though the Magic have definitely shown some fight to start the season, Vegas projects this as high-scoring and played at a fast pace. There are plenty of other places to save across the lineup in order to fit Brow, and I don't think you even need to work that hard at it. He will be the biggest percentage start on the slate for good reason. No need to consider fading him.

Julius Randle - FD 5100 DK 6100
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 23.7 DK Proj. Pts - 24.14
After posting a stinker against the Kings where he looked lost, Randle made up for it in a big way against the Mavs on Sunday night. He was everywhere on the court and at times appeared to grab every single rebound available. Randle ran the court, played D and was able to get his in the paint. The Nuggets are one of the worst interior defenses in basketball and have been owned down low for the last couple of seasons. They have no presence down there and as long as Randle's minutes are locked (which they should be) he's a high floor play.

Marvin Williams - FD 4800 DK 4500
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 22.65 DK Proj. Pts - 24.67
The price is still very stupid considering his role for Charlotte this season. He's the starter, is locked into big minutes, has the ability to score and rebound and I doubt his run is going anywhere. While the price is climbing to some degree, it isn't getting there fast enough and he makes one of the better cash game plays considering the higher floor and low pricing. Don't mind the matchup with the Bulls even with the game projecting lower compared to the field.

Consider Kenneth Faried in tournaments but he does get buzzed off in minutes from time to time.

 

 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 8900 DK 8200
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 39.81 DK Proj. Pts - 40.55
In his first three games of the season (with Greg Monroe moving on to Milwaukee) Drummond has been nothing short of a God-like figure down low. His rebounding totals in the first three games stand at 19,10 and 20 respectively. Those board numbers are stupid and could continue again tonight against a Pacers' tag team of Ian Mahimni and Jordan Hill. Drummond is also averaging about 20 points per game with blocks and steals thrown in for good measure. It helps that Indiana is playing at one of the faster paces in the league which will help some Piston volume. Drummond and Davis both have high floors at their prices.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5400 DK 5600
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 25.58 DK Proj. Pts - 25.98
Put him as a top play against the Lakers the other night and Zaza didn't disappoint. The biggest thing with Pachulia is the minutes. He doesn't have much in the way of competition for run at Dallas center. So I'm looking to target him in games that project to stay close. This one against the Raptors is near a pick'em with a higher over under. He can put up a low end double-double in the right situation which would more than pay these salaries.

Strongly consider Marc Gasol against a Boogie-less Kings' squad. You can also consider Cauley-Stein and Koufos for the same reason going the other way.

 

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