Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 10/29/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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Quick note on these picks: There is a lot to guess at to start the season. Tons of players have switched uniforms. Teams have slightly changed their approach. Rookies are in the mix. New starting lineups abound. It's somewhat tough sledding until we see some games and get a sense of how teams are going to use players. That being said, we've gone over the data and made a number of adjustments to our system in order to get things as close as humanly (and algorithmic-ally) possibel. Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Chris Paul - FD 9800 DK 9600
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 41.57 DK Proj. Pts - 43.46
This short slate is a weird one. There are a lot of slow, and yet somewhat defensively-challenged squads going. The best team, by far is the Clips, though we are still learning a lot about this, somewhat, new team. With the additions of Pierce, Smoove and Lance the Clippers are definitely a different team than they were last season. Namely, their second unit can actually now score points. But CP3 is still CP3 and the Mavericks have had their own change (not in a good way). I'm all over some of the Clippers today and Paul seems very safe in cash games.

Mike Conley - FD 6400 DK 6800
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 29.09 DK Proj. Pts - 30.76
Rough opening night for the Grizz, but one game doesn't a season make. Memphis may be getting a little long in the tooth, but Conley is still a fine enough play at these prices on this slate. Conley isn't a top-end production kind of guy. But he's steady eddy and will roll around minutes a game. He's a distributor who every once in a while will feel inclined to score. From a safety standpoint, I like playing him at his FanDuel price, though DK he does get a little steep considering your flexibility there.

SHOOTING GUARD

Lance Stephenson - FD 3500 DK 3200
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 18.93 DK Proj. Pts - 19.95
It's not that I love Lance in any tangible way. It's more that this position is terrible and he's coming in at the minimums. Lance came in with the starting five last night and that looks to stick at least for the short term though the minutes are far from a guarantee.  The question is more about what his production will be with a group of guys who most definitely don't want to see his shimmy shake in less than advantageous situations. We are monitoring his usage of course, but considering the rest of this position is a total disaster then you can play him at the minimums and hope he fills it up in shorter run.

Courtney Lee - FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 17.66 DK Proj. Pts - 18.86
Getting a sense of how bad shooting guard is on this slate? Good. It's a mess. Lee's minutes are there which makes him a solid play from a floor standpoint and on short slate that's the kind of thing you need to keep yourself in money. He doesn't have the offensive prowess to really bust it out of the box, but I do appreciate the run. Needs the scoring to really hit value, but on short slates you need to crush minutes at the minimum and Lee is one of those guys.

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SMALL FORWARD

Paul George - FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 34.16 DK Proj. Pts - 36.53
The good news on PG is the minutes look like they are going to be there in bunches. He rocked 37 minutes of run last night against the Raptors and was busy filling the stat sheet. I suppose there's some concern on the back-to-back, but from a full run standpoint, George is a full green light. He came two rebounds away from a triple-double and only a poor shooting night (4/17 from the field) kept him from really hitting the stratosphere in overall fantasy points. The current state of the Pacers is much different than pre-injury George. Hibbert and West are gone and even with Monta Ellis in the mix, George is very clearly the guy and more. I suspect his price rises quickly in the short term and we are buying low on him now considering his role in the offense is going to resemble elite names priced much, much higher.

C.J. Miles - FD 4900 DK 3600
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 20.93 DK Proj. Pts - 23.42
No one has every described C.J. Miles as a safe play. Sure, you'll get nights like last night when he plays minutes in the high 30's, shoots 4/8 from three and all is right in the world. Then you'll the get the nights when he goes 1/5, tweaks something midway through the second quarter and you are left wondering why you play DFS at all. Such is the case with C.J. Miles. We know what we are getting at this point, and it aint' consistency. That being said, the price is right for the upside.

POWER FORWARD

Blake Griffin - FD 9900 DK 9500
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 41.03 DK Proj. Pts - 41.67
Dallas had their way with Phoenix last night, but it doesn't stand reason that kind of thing can happen over the long term. The Clips aren't the Suns and the former should have their way tonight. Griffin's a superstar of course and his floor always stays high because his game is fashioned to accrue points across the stat sheets. The pick and roll opens up the mid range jumper, but he can post and dish as well. This is a long way to say he's a fantasy stud and of all the high-priced guys on this slate, he's the one I'm paying for.

Dirk Nowitzki - FD 6200 DK 6000
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 27.28 DK Proj. Pts - 29.04
I have good news and better news on Dirk. The good news is that he was super solid last night going 11/8/2 which comes close to paying his salary. The better news is that happened in only 21 minutes. If he can get closer to 26-28 minutes then I really like his chances at paying off. And that should be the case against the Clippers tonight. Dirk is a never going to totally crush his salary because the minutes won't ever get high enough. But he's safe enough for cash games.

Consider Kristaps Porzingis 

 

 

CENTER

DeAndre Jordan - FD 7700 DK 7700
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 34.87 DK Proj. Pts - 35.6
No more Tyson Chandler for the Mavericks surely makes them worse on defense, though Zaza Pachulia isn't an enormous downgrade. That being said, I can get on a Clips/DeAndre train with the latter dominating the rebounding portion of most games. The only problem with Jordan from a safety standpoint is hi scoring's severely limited. Dude can basically only pick and roll. When that isn't happening, there isn't a bucket to be found and he'll have to rely on the other parts of the stat sheet to get the job done.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5400 DK 5100
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 25.4 DK Proj. Pts - 25.8
No more Tyson Chandler means a whole lot Zaza. Last year he was buzzed off more than once by Jason Kidd's rotations in Milwaukee. But that doesn't look to be the case in Dallas where he's the starting center with no one pushing up against his minutes. Zaza as the man in Dallas has it's advantages at these prices. He's coming as a mid-priced player getting full run and those are the slots where we want to buy heavy. He has the repertoire to more than pay it and if a one game sample is enough indication (which it sometimes is) then this is a supreme value.

 

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