Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 10/27/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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Quick note on these picks. With prices getting released early and news coming in afterwards, some players are priced very low relative to their opportunity. I am not going to cover every piece of this. Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Mo Williams - FD 6000 DK 4900
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 27.29 DK Proj. Pts - 29.62
Welcome to the wonderful world of the NBA where one player's issues are another player's opportunity. That is going to be theme of these picks as you'll see. But let's start it off with Mo. With Kyrie on the shelf to start the season, Williams will handle the primary point guard duties. He is in a fantastic spot with this squad as he combines the ability to score and dish. With Lebron's minutes somewhat in question as he returns from a slight injury, Love getting back into the fold and the Cavs coming off a long season, I can see Mo really crushing this salary tag tonight. While Dellavedova could push up against Mo's run just a tad, Williams seeing 30 minutes in this one is probably all he needs.

Nate Robinson - FD 3500 DK 3000
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 18.28 DK Proj. Pts - 19.53
Oof, the Pelicans aren't starting off on the right foot. Tyreke Evans won't be back for quite some time and New Orleans is really short on ball handlers to start the season. Jrue Holiday is on a minutes' restriction, Norris Cole is out and that leave Tiny Nate to handle the rock. He's a min-priced player and I suspect one of the highest ownership plays on the night for every site. It's somewhat speculative as we don't know exactly what the Pels' offense will look like now. And the matchup against Golden State isn't ideal. But the floor on Robinson relative to price is about as good as you'll see for opening night. Update: The Pelicans have signed Ish Smith. Not sure if he'll see run tonight, but if so this would really downgrade Nate. 

SHOOTING GUARD

Jimmy Butler - FD 7500 DK 7600
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 34.43 DK Proj. Pts - 35.86
We have some indication that the Bulls under Fred Hoiberg will be a very different regime than under Thibs. The days of Jimmy Buckets being Jimmy Minutes could look quite different as there is really nowhere to go but down with this guy's run. That being said, for cash games he's a safe play at the position if you want to spend up a little. Though be warned, with Derrick Rose expected to play, Butler does have a few usage concerns as well. Last season with Rose on the court Butler's usage was 21.8. When Rose sat, the usage was 24.6 (via NBAWowy). Again, there may be some cause for a wait and see approach with the Bulls and their new coach and system. But on such a short slate, you need to take some value where you can get it and Butler is a safer play.

Kent Bazemore - FD 3700 DK 3000
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 19.65 DK Proj. Pts - 20.96
Tony Snell - FD 3900 DK 3000
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 16.92 DK Proj. Pts - 18.64
I'm lumping these guys together because, while they are of course different players, the considerations for them are remarkably similar. Bazemore will enter the starting lineup at the three for the Hawks over Thabo. He's a min-priced player who should see, conservatively 27-30 minutes in the role. The Hawks have some mouths to feed of course, and go a bit deeper in their rotations, but we can pretty much cue 1,000,000 Baze-related puns and jokes leading into this matchup. His production comes primarily through scoring (with rebounds thrown in) but that could be somewhat of an issue with the first team instead of leading the second unit.

Snell meanwhile will fill in for Mike Dunleavy while the latter recovers from injury. The good news on Snell is the minutes should be there at small forward. The bigger risk as I see it for him is in a starting unit with Rose, Butler, Mirotic and Gasol he'll be hard-pressed to get many looks. Won't have to do much to pay his salary but I don't see an incredibly high ceiling considering his skillset and the players he'll share the court with.

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SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James - FD 11000 DK 9800
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 45.27 DK Proj. Pts - 47.1
Ever heard of him? I'm not going to go into long detail about why one would play Lebron. In fact, over the course of the season, he can sometimes be a bit too overpriced for his overall production. That's not a knock on him of course, but the public fantasy love does, at times, outstrip his value. But on this slate there are so many cheaper options and small forward is such a thin position in general, that I think you can play him easily. News has Lebron as a full go for this game and considering it's opening night on the road in Chicago, I think you see him unleashed. No Kyrie means a few more looks and the minutes should be there in what's projected to be the closest game of the night. Again, Lebron as a play is almost as much about the lack of small forward options on the slate as it is about his projection relative to price.

Nikola Mirotic - FD 5500 DK 6400
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 26.37 DK Proj. Pts - 28.38
Fred Hoiberg has him in the starting lineup and you should have him in yours as well. Mirotic will roll at the four, shifting Gasol up to the five in the newish-look Bulls. I'm a bit bearish on Mirotic's minutes only because he has Taj Gibson behind him and the Bulls have the flexibility to shift all of their big men in and out of the four and five. But Nikola should stretch the floor plenty and chip in on the glass as well. It's quite likely this is the lowest you'll see his FanDuelprice for some time. And because small forward gets real ugly and speculative real quick after him and King James, setting and forgetting these two in your lineups is a good way to start.

 

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 11200 DK 10400
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 50.32 DK Proj. Pts - 51.11
The Brow Unleashed might very well be the theme of this NBA season. The Pelicans, now without Tyreke will look even more for Davis to become part of the offense, and believe me, there is room for him. He's a fantasy (and actual) basketball freak of the highest order. Few other players have the high end upside of Davis simply because he contributes in every possible way on the floor and is elite in three categories (Points, Rebounds and Blocks). At a conservative 37 minutes per game, Davis projects through the roof. If he pushes into the low 40's, which is very possible considering the Pels are going to need each and every win this season, then his price is low. With punts galore going into this slate, I'm confident rolling him in every lineup even with New Orleans as decent underdogs against a Golden State who rocks on defense. There is really no reason to fade him here.

Pau Gasol - FD 7900 DK 8000
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 37.17 DK Proj. Pts - 37.78
He's moving to the five in the Bulls' starting lineup, though I don't see that impacting his fantasy value too much from a per minute standpoint. Where is could rear its ugly head is if the, as I said with Mirotic, the Chicago bigs start seeing more of an even split in minutes. This could especially be true early in the season as they find the optimal rotations. But Gasol is a solid fantasy option most nights because of his ability to score and rebound. It's worth mentioning that Gasol's usage does take a hit with Rose and Mirotic on the court together. So it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Cleveland was slightly below average defensively against centers last season and Gasol should be able to score some in the paint.

Consider Ersan Ilyasova if you think he snags a majority of Detroit's power forward minutes. Also Ryan Anderson becomes very interesting if Omer Asik can't go as the Pelicans are real short on big men. Update: Asik has been ruled out. This really bumps Anderson in a big way.

 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 9000 DK 8200
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 36.38 DK Proj. Pts - 37.09
Of the most expensive players on the slate, I'd rather play James and Davis over Drummond, but center is extremely thin for this short slate. Drummond no longer shares the blocks with Greg Monroe, though his usage numbers didn't change too much with or without Monroe last season. Dude's a double-double machine, an animal inside who can put up rebounding numbers with the best in the league. The Hawks were one of the best teams in the league at defending opposing centers last season and very little has changed about their squad. I'm mostly looking Drummond's way because the talent level drops off after he and Horford and you start getting real speculative.

Al Horford - FD 7200 DK 7300
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 34.42 DK Proj. Pts - 35.05
Horford may end up in more of my lineups tonight simply because the price is less than Drummond's though so is the upside. He rarely crushes his minutes' expectation which keeps the ceiling rather though on any given night. I just great dislike some of the options below him and you can save enough at other positions that punting center isn't my first choice. Detroit was brutal against opposing centers last season, allowing 10% more scoring than league average to the position. For cash games, I'd prefer Horford but if looking to go big in a tournament I'd either pay up for Drummond or speculate more on the cheaper side of things.

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