Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for Draftpot - Week Four

Welcome to the Week 4 DFS NFL picks article for Draftpot, a brand new way to play fantasy sports. Draftpot is similar to other DFS sites except there is no salary cap restrictions. They offer two separate game types(Fan Mode/GM Mode). For NFL, Fan Mode allows you to build a roster of 1 QB,2 RB,3 WR,1 TE,2 FLEX,1 K,1 DEF without salary restrictions. You can roster anyone you want. In GM Mode, you also roster the same positions but have a Drafpot Points Per Game(DPPG) cap. Each player have a PPG value attached to their name which is a reflection of their previous 16 games played. This gives a more transparent look at player value.

Need other NFL Picks? Chris Raybon's Week 4 NFL Plays are up as well as our Week 4 Value Picks.

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When making my picks I will be looking at a multitude of information (Vegas lines, totals and player props, targets, defensive matchups, injuries, offensive line rankings and of course DPPG) to break down all the players in the pool to provide you with the best analysis possible for the slate at hand.

If you missed out on Week 3 at DraftPot, you missed out on a large amount of overlay. Don't worry though. They are doing it again this week with their $10 entry, $100,000 Guarantee Touchdown Fan Mode tournament. It pays $10,000 to first and is bound to have more overlay again this weekend. Get in on the action while there is still time.

To win a tournament in Fan Mode you won't be able to just pick the top players at their positions each week. You will need to differentiate yourself with some low ownership picks. One way I love doing this is picking good players who are coming off a bad to horrible week. Recency bias plays a huge part in daily fantasy and is something we can use to our advantage to gain an edge on the field in large field GPP tournaments. I feel there is a tremendous opportunity for this here in week 2 with the number of poor performances by top players last week.

Remember, in a mode like DraftPot you will need some separation from the field. Players who stand to produce big games that give you a chance to break from the pack some.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers @ SF (DPPG - 24.73)
He won't provide you separation in large field tournaments but will be great option for cash games. He lost his #1 WR for the season, got an old James Jones(dropped by two teams before the season) back and now loses under performing Davante Adams for a week. None of this seems to affect Rodgers at all. He has 10 TD in 3 games and hasn't produced less than 20 DraftPot Points in any game. His accuracy is over 70% and is definitely the best QB in the NFL right now. Get him in all your cash game lineups this week.

Andy Dalton - Cincinnati Bengals vs. KC (DPPG - 18.09)
When looking for a QB in large field tournaments in Fan Mode you will want to find a QB with some upside and one who will be lower owned to create some separation. I think we have this scenario this week in Andy Dalton. He should be low owned because...well he is Andy Dalton. He faces a defense in KC who is crazy good against the run but allows a lot of fantasy points to QB's and WR's. He has thrown for 8 TD's and only 1 INT so far and is averaging 24.9 DraftPot Points per game. He has an elite receiver(AJ Green) who he is finally targeting double digit times a game. Get the Red Rifle in your GPP's this week.

Also Consider: Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons vs. HOU(19.53 DPPG)

 

Running Backs

Matt Forte - Chicago Bears vs. Oak (DPPG - 22.06)
He and Martellus Bennett have quickly become the only healthy weapons left on the Bears offense. He is one of the best receiving RB's in the league and thrives in PPR formats. He had an off week last week against a tough Seahawks defense and didn't get an reception. This might steer a few people away this week due to recency bias but don't be fooled. He goes against a Raiders defense that has allowed around 90 yards rushing a game and about 7 receptions to the RB. This is a great matchup for Forte making a great GPP option this week.

Karlos Williams - Buffalo Bills vs. NYG (DPPG - 13.40)
It isn't 100% official but it looks likely Lesean Mccoy will sit out this weekend making Karlos Williams the starter versus the Giants. He ran 12 times last week and racked up 110 yards and a TD. He has scored in each game so far and with an increased workload this week we should see more of this from Williams. The Bills are at home versus a Giants team in the bottom 3rd of the league in fantasy points against the RB position. Vegas has the Bills as a 5.5 point favorite so he should see 15-20 touches this week.

Also Consider: Melvin Gordon - San Diego Chargers vs. CLE (8.53 DPPG)

 

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones - Atlanta Falcons vs. HOU (22.27 DPPG)
He leads off my WR picks again this week and it will stay this way until he proves he is human. He now leads the league in targets(46/15.3 per game) and Yards(440) through three weeks. I am expecting him to be extremely high owned in Fan Mode but if you fade him and he goes off again, you will be behind about 80-90% of the field. Start your WR selections with Julio and move on.

Amari Cooper - Oakland Raiders @ CHI (18.33 DPPG)
The rookie WR has been exactly what everyone expected coming into the NFL. He has great hands, runs crisp routes and can gain yards after the catch. In his first 3 NFL games he has two 100 yard games and a TD. All of this after he started with a tough matchup vs. Bengals to start the year. Quarterback Derek Carr is targeting Cooper around 10 times a game which is just outside of the top 10. Look for this to continue this week vs. the lowly Bears who seem to have packed it in already.

Also Consider: Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona Cardionals vs. SF (DPPG 14.78)

 

Tight Ends

Charles Clay - Buffalo Bills vs. NYG (DPPG - 10.64)
If you are looking for separation in large field tournaments this week look no further than Charles Clay. With Gronk out it is almost a lock that the two highest owned TE's will be Olsen and Graham. I believe Clay provides about the same upside this week for a projected lower ownership percentage. Lesean Mccoy and Sammy Watkins could both be out this week which leaves a large amount of targets available to be passed around. Clay has seen his targets increase each week and he has put up 2 TD's so far. Look for another 5-10 targets and a possible TD versus the Giants this week.

Jordan Reed - Washington Redskins vs. PHI (DPPG - 10.38)
Another TE pick which reflects a pivot off the top 2 options this week. He has been putting up a solid season so far and has been kind of under the radar. This is perfect for Fan Mode tournaments. He has 19 receptions for 241 yards and a TD so far in 2015. He is also 2nd to Gronk in receptions over 20 yards with five. He makes a nice GPP play this week as his matchup isn't ideal but has a nice ceiling.

Also Consider - Jason Witten - Dallas Cowboys @ NO (DPPG - 12.24)

 

Defenses

Carolina Panthers @ TB (DPPG - 7.69)
Most will be taking the chalk with Seattle or Arizona this week as great options. I will definitely have a mix of these as well but for large field GPP tournies I will be looking at Carolina at a bit less ownership. They have 7 Sacks and 4 INT on the season and face a Bucs Offensive Line ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league.

Buffalo Bills vs. NYG (DPPG - 9.75)
They will be at home versus the Giants who rank right near the bottom in offensive line rankings. The Bills have gotten multiple sacks each game and already have 5 interceptions on the year. The Bills should wreak havoc on the Eli in this one cause multiple turnovers.

Kickers

Matt Bryant - Atlanta Falcons vs. HOU (DPPG - 10.63)
He is, as always, a safe pick as the Falcons are moving the ball nicely through 3 weeks and have started to regress in the red zone a bit creating more FG opportunities.

Josh Brown - New York Giants @ BUF (DPPG - 10.88)
He leads the league in Field Goals(9) and for the most part it is due to the Giants being dead last in Red Zone conversion rate. The Bills are a tough defense so expect multiple opportunities for Brown this week. The only reason to fade would be inclement weather.

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