Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/27/14

Finishing off the weekend in style today. Games start early so make sure to set those lineups before the early afternoon start.

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Pitchers

Honestly, this was one of the harder days to pick quality, value pitchers. Between suboptimal matchups, early season statistics and prices, I don't really like anyone on the board.

Danny Salazar FanDuel 6400 DraftKings 5800 DraftStreet 17229
Salazar's strikeout numbers are crazy high. So that's good. His walks are also completely unreasonable. So that's bad. I'm taking him on the upside today. The K's are for sure there and the Giants have really struggled with righties early in this season. Their K% is among the highest in the league. They don't grind out at bats and Salazar does have big upside at this price. He has downside as well, considering he can get wild. The price is right and I'm firing it.

Ian Kennedy FanDuel 6300 DraftKings 8200 DraftStreet 14160
If you've been reading this column, you know we've been fans of Kennedy almost every time out. And he's paid his way in a majority of his outings. Today looks to be more of the same. The Nationals have a few legit bats, but their lineup doesn't have a ton of depth. They're sporting a 96 wRC+ against righties this season. Kennedy has kept his K% close to a strikeout an inning and the walk rate is solid. He's a good, not great option today.

Justin Verlander FanDuel 9400 DraftKings 10300 DraftStreet 21097
The Twins are riding an inflated Babip to early season hitting success. This isn't to say they are a bad team running crazy hot, but they probably aren't nearly as good as some of their early numbers indicate. They strikeout about league average and have a few bats in their lineup. Honestly, I'm drawing this pick more on past performance which is always dangerous. Something I like to avoid. Verlander's xFIP is significantly higher than his ERA, which is worrisome. But he does have K potential and the Twins do strikeout. Seems like a bi pricetag, but you can consider it.

 

Catchers

Victor Martinez FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6754
Where he is catcher eligible, few guys make safer cash game plays than Martinez. Hitting behind Miguel Cabrera offers that kind of safety. Kyle Gibson is a pitcher I love to target in DFS because his K rate and walk rate are nearly identical. For the uninitiated, this is not good.

John Jaso FanDuel 2300 DraftKings 2700 DraftStreet 5628
It's tough to believe in Colin McHugh's Bob Gibson impersonation on Monday and I'm willing to bet he doesn't continue at a 16% K% for the rest of his career.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3100 DraftStreet 4644
Dillon Gee gets pounded by lefties and I don't mind targeting a few lefty Marlins today. Salty being one of them. He has some power and walks a bunch. The strikeouts are a concern, but he's OPS'ing over 800 to start the year.

 

First Basemen

Allen Craig FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 5191
Craig has run pretty bad to start the year. His Babip is 150 points lower than his career average. A big problem is his groundball rate is way up and that is a number that stabilizes rather early. But Craig isn't this bad of a hitter and his splits don't suggest a big difference when facing the righty Volquez today.

David Ortiz FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 4700 DraftStreet 7914
RA Dickey has been absolutely horrendous to start this season. He is walking the ballpark and that isn't a number you want to bring in to a game facing the Red Sox. Ortiz especially is difficult to strike out and Dickey could have some major issues with Boston today. Papi crushes righties and this is a solid spot.

Prince Fielder FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 8954
The power numbers haven't come around yet, but that might be a blip on the radar. There are some encouraging signs. His walks are up and his K's are down. The Babip is down meaning there is some run bad in there. Brandon Maurer isn't horrendous so this isn't a dream matchup, but I think Fielder has some hitting to do.

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 4500 DraftKings 5500 DraftStreet 10148
Kyle Gibson blows. So...

 

Second Basemen

Jose Altuve FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6284
Once upon a team Altuve hit lefties pretty well. He's come back down to earth a bit over the last couple of years. But for his career he has a 128 RC+ against lefties. He faces Tommy Milone at a discount today and the splits favor the matchup.

Logan Forsythe FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 2500 DraftStreet 4000
He starts against lefties and the Rays righties in general are in a great spot against Leesman who by early returns, doesn't seem like a major league pitcher. I like a number of Rays today and Forsythe is coming super cheap. Not a great hitter but serviceable at these prices.

Jason Kipnis FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 7997
Kipnis has a decent matchup against Vogelsong today, as do a few other Indian lefties. Vogelsong is trash and Kipnis, while not a crazy reverse splits guy, does hit righties fine.

 

Shortstops

Weak class at SS today.

Elvis Andrus FanDuel 3500 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 7223
A bit pricey on DraftStreet, and the splits don't really favor him, but SS is so weak today that I'm willing to take a guy near the top of the order against an average pitcher. Andrus isn't a top tier option but there are few at the position today.

Yunel Escobar FanDuel 2400 DraftKings 2600 DraftStreet 4042
Getting in some Rays righties against the lefty Leesman today. SS is a good place to punt out today and Escobar offers that opportunity. He hits lefties fine enough and this you really don't want to be overpaying at the position today.

Consider: Ian Desmond

 

Third Basemen

Left shortstop, but the opposite. There are a number of quality options here today.

Evan Longoria FanDuel 4200 DraftKings 4600 DraftStreet 8345
A well-known lefty destroyer, Longo has a terrific matchup today and I'm willing to go an extra couple of bucks if need be. Leesman, as we've been through, isn't interested in getting things like outs, or K's or other prerequisites for major league success. Longoria should see plenty of opportunity today.

Adrian Beltre FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 8140
Back from injury with a good matchup today. The Rangers have a few enticing options, Beltre being one of them. He had a 370 wOBA against righties last season and faces Maurer today.

David Wright FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4400 DraftStreet 6762
Tom Koehler's surface ERA appears low, but it isn't sustainable considering his other numbers. He strikes out less than 6.5 guys per nine and has a slightly elevated walk rate. Still think we are buying low on Wright, though it's hard to ignore that those around him won't help some of his other counting stats.

Matt Carpenter FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6119
Carpenter, along with a bunch of other Cards, is really struggling to start the season. They are in a team-wide slump. But that's why Edinson Vollquez is around. To bust you out of hitting downturns. Carpenter OPS'd close to 900 against righties last season and his batted ball profile remains relatively in line with his numbers from last season. ISO is way down, but this is a great matchup.

 

Outfielders

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 6117
Mentioned before that Gee really struggles against lefties and Yelich hitting at the top of the order makes him a top play today. Gee is significantly worse from this side of the plate and Yelich, while lacking a bunch of power, can make things happen on the basepaths.

Matt Kemp FanDuel 3600 DraftKings 3900 DraftStreet 6331
Striking out more than is almost humanly possible, making this play against de la Rosa risky. But Kemp's price is down across the board on his early season returns. But he hits lefties well enough and has upside in the middle of the Dodger lineup. He might not return to the MVP caliber he flashed not so long ago, but you can play him when the price drops to an acceptable point.

Torii Hunter FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 4100 DraftStreet 6848
Austin Jackson FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 7103
I seem to be picking these guys every day. But they are hitting well, keep paying and have another strong matchup against Kyle Gibson today. Neither has a crazy disparate platoon split and I can see the Tigers turning over the lineup an extra time today at least.

Wil Myers FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6559
Desmond Jennings FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 6791
Like yesterday, Rays righty hitters have a great matchup against Leesman today and you should take advantage. Both of these guys hitting significantly better against lefties and Leesman is a AAA pitcher making a spot start. The only downside here is the ballpark that knocks down power from both sides of the plate. But everything else is systems go.

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