Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Victiv 8/24/15

Happy Monday! A nice, small slate today. While this limits our options to some degree, we find short slates to be some of the very most profitable. The reason? The difference between the good plays, mediocre plays, and bad plays is that much bigger. Even still, I'll not be able to give every single good play on even a small slate like this.

So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Victiv.

 

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom - FD 11700 DK 12000 Victiv
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
If there's a day to take off if you're looking for straight safety at the pitcher position, today might be the day. It's no slight to DeGrom - he's an excellent pitcher. His 2.98 xFIP, while it is a run higher than his 1.98 ERA, is still good for the 9th best in the majors. He's got a sparkling K rate, a stingy walk rate, and he's good at preventing the long ball. to make matters better, the Phillies really stink. Their .297 wOBA against right handed pitching is the 2nd worst in the majors. Also! Adam Morgan, the Phillies starter, really is pretty lousy. There's not a lot to complain about here... except the price. This is a lot to pay for a non Kershaw/Sale type, and really limits roster options elsewhere. Still, DeGrom is the clear 50/50 and double-up play from where I'm sitting, and I'll try to dig around for value elsewhere.

Julio Teheran - FD 8500 DK 8100 Victiv
Opponent- Col (de la Rosa) L Park- @Atl
A huge step down from DeGrom in terms of absolute ability, but he's got some pretty solid points per dollar upside games on his track record. Teheran's taken a step back this season to be sure, but the 24 year old can still dial it up in the right match-up. I'd say this is that. While Colorado has the highest wOBA against right handed pitching in the majors this season, a lot of that has happened at home. On the road, they've got the second highest strike out rate in the majors (24.3%) and the league's 2nd lowest wOBA. Teheran can collapse on you, don't get me wrong, but there's also a chance he's the highest scorer at the position today, and he's priced in such a way that you can fit some nice offensive pieces around him.

Lance Lynn - FD 8900 DK 9300 Victiv
Opponent- Ari (Ray) L Park- @Ari
Lynn is a higher upside version of Julio Teheran, with a higher K rate and better command. I rank him below Teheran, though, because of his match-up. The Diamondbacks are a team that allows some great games, and some real disasters. They strike out at the 9th highest rate against right handed pitching, but also have the 10th highest wOBA in the majors. Our projection system thinks the Cards will be able to hit Robbie Ray, giving Lynn some cushion for the win as well. I won't touch this in double ups, but in big tournaments, I'll probably put in a few feelers.

 

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Catchers

Travis d'Arnaud - FD 3100 DK 4500 Victiv 4800
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
So, I like D'Arnaud fine, but the real story here is Adam Morgan. Morgan was getting his ass handed to him in the minors (an awful 4.35 K/9 to go with a 3.65 BB/9) before the Phillies called him, presumably to tank the hell out of this thing as the season ends. He's been predictably awful at the major league level as well - his 5.40 xFIP would be the worst in the majors if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. What's more, he also has just a 30% ground-ball rate, meaning power guys like D'Arnaud can cash in on all their upside. As for my man Travis, he's been great against lefties this season - walking 3 times, striking out just once, and hitting 4 extra base hits in 25 PA against lefties this season. I'll play D'Arnaud in all formats.

Yadier Molina - FD 2400 DK 3300 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Ari (Ray) L Park- @Ari
If you pay up at pitching with DeGrom, you might not be able to afford his battery-mate, listed above. If that's the case, Molina offers a nice high-floor option at a very cheap price. He's batting 5th for the Cardinals against lefties, and he's actually some bad luck away from being quite good against them. His 10% walk rate and 11.7% K rate against LHP are both excellent, and while he doesn't hit for power, he hits behind some guys that can get on base for him. In a nice hitter's park, I believe he's a solid high floor option.

Also considered: Victor Martinez.

 

First base

Joey Votto - FD 4500 DK 5600 Victiv 5700
Opponent- Det (Farmer) R Park- @Cin
Votto is doing the peak-Votto thing again this year, and I have to admit - it has me all tingly. He's blistering opposing pitching for a 1K OPS, and while he's actually hit left handed pitching better this season, he's a heavy career platoon guy the other way. And then there's poor, poor Buck Farmer. He's a fringe prospect who has allowed more runs than he has pitched innings in the majors. Throw in Votto's great home park, and this looks like a dream spot.

Jose Abreu - FD 3900 DK 4600 Victiv 5700
Opponent- Bos (Kelly) R Park- @Cws
It's true - Abreu is better against left handed pitching. But he's still got nearly a .900 career OPS against right handed pitching, and that number jumps when he's in his very favorable home park. He's also facing Joe Kelly today - a below league average journeyman who's never had a season below a 4.05 xFIP and has a tendency to give up a lot of hard hit balls. You're paying up here, and that price brings risk, but if you want true upside for the position, I like Jose.

The high upside cheap guys
Mark Reynolds - FD 2200 DK 3000 Victiv 4000
Opponent- Ari (Ray) L Park- @Ari
Michael Cuddyer - FD 2500 DK 3200 Victiv 4400
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
You never know if either of these guys are going to play tomorrow, but if they do, they're both in very favorable platoon situations. I list Reynolds first only because he's been playing more frequently, but they're both pretty close in my mind. I'd guess that Reynolds has the better raw talent, but Cuddyer has by far the better match-up. Either way, if you want to save up and want to go straight upside, don't be surprised if either of these guys is on teams that win a large daily fantasy baseball tournament tomorrow.

 

Second base

Neil Walker - FD 3000 DK 3600 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Mia (Koehler) R Park- @Mia
We loved Walker against the right handed Vogelsong last night, and he's the best of a fairly sorry lot at second base again today. Here's what we wrote, since I'd just be paraphrasing it anyway:

If you want to pay up a little extra, Walker might have upside equal to or higher than Brian Dozier. He's got 13 homers and 3 steals in 388 PAs against right handed pitching this season, and while that's not going to conjure up any images of Joe Morgan, it's not half bad for the position in today's game.

The difference tonight is Koehler, of course. At first blush, you're probably like, "No way Koehler can be as bad as Vogelsong, right?" Wrong, hypothetical objector. Wrong. They've actually got the exact same (terrible) 4.50 xFIP. On a shallow night at the position, I'll take Walker in every format.

Wilmer Flores - FD 2700 DK 3500 Victiv 4200
Opponent- Phi (Morgan) L Park- @Phi
If you're sniffing around for some upside today... have you seen what Wilmer Flores has been up to recently? He's been tearing the cover off the thing to the tune of 24.5 FanDuel points in his last 5 games. It's easy to get impatient with guys like Flores, until you realize that many fine hitters were still in the minors when they were his age. And in spite of some early season struggles, Flores still has an .881 OPS against southpaws this season, and the underlying stats look legit. I've given you the case against Adam Morgan already, so I won't belabor the point here - I think Flores is a fine play for double-ups or big tournaments.

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2300 DK 3900 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Ari (Ray) L Park- @Ari
We've been giving you Peralta basically every day for a week, and last night, it paid off pretty well in spite of him actually not doing a whole lot. Here's the thing - Peralta is definitely in a little swoon here. But it's baseball(!) folks - these things happen. Thankfully, he's still batting toward the top of his lineup among some other guys that can really hit. He's also a guy who's been .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career. And! He's hitting in quite a favorable hitter's park. Peralta is nothing like a minimum priced shortstop. He's 2nd in the majors at SS in homers. And he's cheaper than Alcides Escobar? Give me a break. I'll keep buying and buying, and don't suspect I'll regret it until his price climbs the (at least) 25% that it should.

Jose Reyes - FD 3000 DK 3800 Victiv 4500
Opponent- Atl (Teheran) R Park- @Atl
Reyes is a pale shade of his former self at this point, but these prices just reflect that people are sort of bored with him. He's on pace to replicate last season's numbers - a 10/30 pace with a .282 batting average, give or take, and that's really quite a fine line for a shortstop. It's not a tip top match-up, necessarily, but getting Reyes for $3,000 on FanDuel against a less than elite pitcher while he's going to pile up at bats from the two hole might be too much to pass up if you're shooting the moon.

Also considered: Andrelton Simmons against Jorge De La Rosa, but only for 50/50s and double-ups.
 

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2900 DK 4900 Victiv 5000
Opponent- Det (Farmer) R Park- @Cin
If daily fantasy baseball favors one skill in particular, it's a steady hand. This thing is a marathon, folks, it's not a sprint. It's a buy-and-hold business, not one where you are trying to hold your finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing. So, yeah, these are my excuses as to why Frazier is on some tough luck recently. But still! The guy has a near .800 OPS and 16 homers in 392 PA against right handed pitching this season. It's obviously not top tier upside, but it's darn good, and more production than you can reliably find elsewhere for less than $3,000 on FanDuel. And again, Buck Farmer!!! If there were ever a game to turn a slump around, here we go.

Josh Harrison - FD 2600 DK 3700 Victiv 4700
Opponent- Mia (Koehler) R Park- @Mia
My high floor, pretty cheap option for the day. Harrison is a high BABIP guy who doesn't strike out a lot. The issue is that he doesn't do a whole lot else. He can hit for a little power, he can run a little bit, but what you're buying here is a lot of hard contact and praying for some counting stats to follow. I told you Koehler was a glorified Vogelsong clone earlier, but there's another little wrinkle that benefits Harrison, here. Koehler has actually allowed a higher wOBA against right handed pitching for his career. Frazier is clearly the upside play, here, but I can see grabbing Harrison as a cheap way to secure a few points at the position.

Also considered: Martin Prado - guy is historically way better against lefties, and he bats among the top of the lineup. If he's playing, he might be a higher floor play than Harrison, even.

 

Outfield

The cheap guys: Even on a short-slate, there are a half a dozen great cheap options that you can pick from today. Instead of just list them all (and some of them are platoon guys that may or may not play), I'll instead point you in the direction of a free three day trial of our projection system, where you can see all the projections that inform these picks every night. Good luck!

Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 4100 Victiv 4900
Opponent- Det (Farmer) R Park- @Cin
Bruce was given a little sabbath on Sunday, much to my chagrin, since he was our top recommendation at OF yesterday. Well, today he has an even worse right handed pitcher to crush. Here's what I wrote yesterday, since it all still holds:

The price is just not in line with what Bruce can do on a day to day basis. He's got a .229 ISO against right handed pitching this season, and his OPS is .070 points higher against northpaws. I've given you the skivvy on Anderson already, but it bears repeating: he's a disaster start waiting to happen, what with his low K rate and total lack of put-away stuff. Bruce always comes with risk, but at these prices, it might be too good to pass up.

Carlos Gomez - FD 2900 DK 3800 Victiv 4900
Opponent- NYY (Eovaldi) R Park- @NYY
Another guy for whom the price hate has gone too far. Gomez is basically a Reyes clone at this point, except that he's younger and is struggling with some bad BABIP luck this season. Which is to say, I think he's an even better play than my man Jose, listed above. Nathan Eovaldi is basically the pitcher equivalent of a stock photo - grinning on a white background in an eerily generic way. He's been a tick below league average, like, forever. Gomez is batting 2nd on a team that can hit right handed pitching, and looks like a great play for upside and safety, here.

Preston Tucker - FD 2700 DK 3200 Victiv
Opponent- NYY (Eovaldi) R Park- @NYY
A high upside home-run play for large tournaments only. Tucker's OPS against right handed pitching is .400 points higher than it is against lefties. Now, that's because he has a heinous .466 OPS against lefties. So, there's downside here. But he's got a legit power pedigree, and could get around on Eovaldi before he gets bounced.

Brett Gardner - FD 3000 DK 4700 Victiv 5100
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @NYY
Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 3300 DK 4400 Victiv 5200
Opponent- Hou (Feldman) R Park- @NYY
Gardner and Ellsbury were darlings of our projection system last night, and both put together interesting games against a better pitcher than Scott Feldman. Both are lefties that prefer right handed pitching, and since they bat 1-2 in a tough Yankees' lineup, they make a fun pair to stack with one another. Meanwhile, Feldman has managed to survive in the majors this season with a 4.88 K/9 (which would be the 4th worst in the majors if he qualified). He should get butchered in this outing, which means more PAs for the speedy OFs to pile up numbers. Love them in any format.

The upside elephant: Yoenis Cespedes. Adam Morgan will be the worst pitcher he's faced this season. Just sayin'!
 

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