Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/16/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.

 

Pitchers

A quick note before we begin: I'm just going to give you one guy in a few different price tiers. So while I like guys like Matt Harvey against Pittsburgh, I like the listed guy (Sale) a bit more. Cool? Let's do this.

Chris Sale - FD 11200 DK 11600 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @Cws
Well, my friends, it honestly doesn't get any safer when it comes to a 50/50 or double-up play. Famous last words, obviously, but there really isn't much not to like here. Chris Sale is the owner of the majors' second highest xFIP, Dan Haren is the owner of the majors' 7th worst. The Cubs have struck out a remarkable 23.3% of the time against left handed pitching this season, which is just 1% below the league leading Padres. The fly in the ointment, if you want to call it that, is that the Cubs have been about league average against left handed pitching in terms of wOBA. But let's not be overly picky here. I won't consider playing anyone else in formats where I need to finish in the top half to score, and you can make an argument for playing him in big tournaments too honestly.

Carlos Martinez - FD 9900 DK 9100 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Mia (Phelps) R Park- @Stl
Looking down the ladder a bit price-wise, my eyes come to a rest on young Carlos Martinez. While he's not a pitcher of the same caliber of the elite arms going today, the price savings are actually pretty significant, and he has arguably as much upside. His 3.33 xFIP is still a top 20 number in the majors, and he's been a strike-out per inning guy with 20 FanDuel points upside. He's also got some stinkers on his resume as well. Still, if you're looking for a high upside play that many will ignore, he's worth a look. The Marlins are dead last in the league in wOBA against right handed pitching this season, and David Phelps and his 4.34 xFIP have been a fair mess this season. Yup, I'm pretty into this one.

Shelby Miller - FD 8100 DK 8400 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Ari (de la Rosa) R Park- @Atl
Let's get one thing out of the way - I wouldn't touch Shelby in a 50/50 today. But for big tournaments? Things get interesting. The Diamondbacks have struck out at the 9th highest rate in the majors against right handed pitching this season. The issue is that they've also had the 9th highest wOBA. They've got some guys that can seriously hit, and I can imagine being fairly terrified watching any of Goldschmidt's plate appearances today. Still, the D-backs have been .048 OPS points worse on the road this season, and Rubby de la Rosa's pitching has been erratic enough that Miller should have a good shot at a win today as well. If you want to spend up on hitting today, I'd really consider Miller.

 

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Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 3700 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Lad
Ah, the ebbs and flows of daily fantasy baseball. A relatively quiet week for Grandal has his price down in unreasonably affordable levels, and you can believe that we're buyers here. Anthony Desclafani is a below league average starters (4.22 xFIP) without real swing and miss stuff, and Grandal has an .894 OPS against all righties this season. Great spot for safety and upside.

Salvador Perez - FD 2400 DK 3300 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @KC
If you want a high upside but still very cheap play, I like Salvador Perez quite a bit. He's a 25 year old catcher with a career .776 OPS against left handed pitching, and his home run last night means he's 2nd in the majors at his position with 17 bombs. That's a damned fine fantasy player, and we can get him for the near-minimum? Hmmm. While Hector Santiago is not horrible or anything, he's run fairly hot in terms of runs allowed this season, and Perez should get plenty of balls to hit. A very nice cheap play.

Evan Gattis - FD 2900 DK 3600 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Hou
Speaking of upside, let's have a look at Evan Gattis. He's a very similar play to Perez in a lot of ways, but gets dinged on his recommendation here because I'll just take Grandal when in doubt. Still, if you want to go against the grain, here's the argument. Houston is a fine place to hit, and Gattis is tied with Perez for 2nd in the league at his position with 17 homers this season. And then there's Matt Boyd. The poor guy has one of the lowest ground-ball rates in the league (31.9%), and has subsequently allowed 2.38 home runs per 9 innings this season. Why shouldn't Gattis grab one of those? He just might!

 

First base

Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3600 DK 4600 Victiv 5200 Yahoo
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Lad
Okay, so he's tailed off dramatically from his early season MVP consideration, but all that's done is make Gonzalez a solid value play. With 20 homers and a .904 OPS in 386 PA against right handed pitching this season, Adrian is still one of the higher upside plays in the league when he's facing a right handed pitcher. Especially one of little renown like Desclafani. I'm happy to put him out there in any format at these sub-top-tier prices.

Mark Teixeira - FD 3500 DK 4600 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
If you want to go straight upside today, consider Mark Teixeira. With 24 homers and a .967 OPS in 299 PA against right handed pitching this season, he's been one of the very highest upside plays going when facing a northpaw in 2015. While Drew Hutchison has been unlucky this season (his .367 BABIP allowed is way too high for his skill set), the fact remains - Hutchison gives up a lot of hard contact. And Teixeira? He happens to make a lot of hard contact. The Rogers Centre is also a fine place to hit, making this one of those match-ups that could help you win a big tournament for sure.

Carlos Santana - FD 3100 DK 4100 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Min (Milone) L Park- @Min
It's easy to sit around and focus on the stuff Santana isn't. He's not a conventional power threat at the position, and frankly doesn't have a huge amount of upside on a night to night basis. But if you want safety? Things get a lot more interesting. Santana has walked more than he's struck out against left handed pitching during his career, and his professional approach has yielded 7 games in his last 10 where he's scored 2.5 FanDuel Fantasy points or more, with a few games better than that. Today he'll face Tommy Milone, who's been a below average pitch-to-contact guy since the moment he set foot in the league. I think something in the 3-4 FanDuel point range is very reasonable here.

A huge upside punt could be Chris Carter against the homer-happy Matt Boyd.

 

Second base

Jose Altuve - FD 3600 DK 4500 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Det (Boyd) L Park- @Hou
If you have some spare change lying around, Altuve looks like head and shoulders the safest play at the 2nd base position today. If that sounds strange to say about a guy who seems to have taken a step back this season, you should take a closer look. Altuve has been a monster against left handed pitching this season, spraying around line drives to the tune of a .934 OPS, a number than rises to 1.034 at home. I've detailed some of Boyd's struggles already, so I won't beat a dead horse. But if you can afford him, he's a great play for your double-ups.

Chase Utley - FD 2500 DK 3200 Victiv 4100 Yahoo
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Mil
Might the tides have turned for the guy who looks like the unluckiest hitter in the majors in 2015? The man with the .220 BABIP this season is now on 6 nice games in a row, including 3 nice high upside performances. The only thing different about Utley this season has been the power, but even that has shown a resurgence recently. Frankly, I like him quite a bit in any format against the league average Taylor Jungmann in a nice hitter's park.

Jonathan Schoop - FD 2400 DK 3600 Victiv 4100 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Oak (Graveman) R Park- @Bal
For a little high-upside love, I'm looking at Jonathan Schoop. If he qualified, his .855 OPS this season would be the second best at the position, and while he never showed quite this much power in the minors, stranger things have happened than a 23 year old coming into some power later in his career. Interestingly, Schoop has also been dramatically better against right handed pitching since joining the majors, making this match-up with Kendall Graveman more intriguing than perhaps it first appears. Graveman is a text-book below league average guy, with a K/9 below 6 and a BB/9 above 3. I'll take Utley for double-ups for sure, but in big tournaments? I wanna Schoop, baby. Just couldn't resist, sorry.

 

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2800 DK 3300 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cin (Desclafani) R Park- @Lad
If the Dodgers only had access to our projection system, they might have left Rollins in the lead-off spot all along. Still in the process of recovering from BABIP luck even worse than Utley's, Rollins is frankly hitting fine this season. With lead-off opportunity, J-Roll should get enough cuts to have a seriously high floor against Desclafani's weak stuff, and his 11 homers and 9 steals this season (which would be higher without the bad BABIP luck) mean he's what passes for an upside play at the position as well. I like him in all formats.

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3800 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Mia (Phelps) R Park- @Stl
Peralta's cooled down quite a bit recently, but this is what daily fantasy baseball is all about - catching falling knives that aren't really falling, just going through the natural ups and downs that baseball offers. Peralta is still 2nd in the majors at shortstop in home runs, and fourth at his position in terms of OPS. While Peralta's been better against lefties this season, he can still hit right handed pitching. He'll face David Phelps, whose already sad repertoire seems to have gotten even worse this season - his K/9 has dropped from 7.33 to below 6 while he's tried to lower his bad walk-rate.

Alcides Escobar - FD 2300 DK 3600 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 14
Opponent- LAA (Santiago) L Park- @KC
Escobar should probably bat 7th on the Royals, but that's not our problem. He happens to bat first, and this means he just gets tons of plate appearances in spite of his inferior skills. For our daily fantasy baseball purposes, this means he winds up being an undeserving high floor play for our 50/50s and double-ups. He hits in front of some real hitters, and he seems to go 1/4 with a run and a steal or whatever frequently enough to be one of the least exciting, but profitable, double-up plays out there.

Definitely considered: Xander Bogaerts against the left-handed Nuno, just looks a little pricey. Still, for big tourneys? Heck yeah.
 

Third base

It's a seriously weird day at 3B today. Most of the good hitters are facing great pitching, leaving us with a pretty rough group to choose from. Here's what I got.

Adrian Beltre - FD 3200 DK 3500 Victiv 5100 Yahoo
Opponent- TB (Smyly) L Park- @Tex
Ugh, it's been a pretty colossal fall from grace for Beltre this season, and both he and I are licking our wounds as a result. Still, his price has dropped to the point where we just have to consider him in his great home park against a young lefty like Smyly. Now, the Rays' lefty has been pretty awesome at all levels this season, but he never projected to be such a monster, and I think he could take a bruising in Texas that brings him back down to Earth. Beltre has been about .065 OPS points better against lefties during his career, and I like him for any format today frankly.

Brett Lawrie - FD 2500 DK 3300 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Bal (Chen) L Park- @Bal
Did I mention it was going to get rough? Ugh. Here's the thing with Lawrie - he's been both dramatically better against left handed pitching and when he's on the road this season. In an admittedly limited sample size, the A's hot-corner-man has a .925 OPS against lefties on the road this season. If you believe, as I do, that hitting in Oakland is the exact wrong place for a hitter like Lawrie, it makes sense to take him against a less than elite left hander (Chen) in a great hitter's park in Baltimore. I'll take Beltre over him to be sure, but if you want to try and catch a little lightning in a bottle, Lawrie is at least interesting.

Also considered: Jake Lamb. Just play Beltre.

 

Outfield

Adam Jones - FD 3500 DK 4900 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Oak (Graveman) R Park- @Bal
Hopefully you held a steady hand with Jones, as our projection system suggested. We've loved what we've seen in the last week, with 3 homers in 4 games, including 2 in the hitter's hell-hole of Safeco. Today, Jones will face the below average Graveman in his great home hitter's park, making this another nice spot for some potential upside. Don't sweat the righty/righty thing here, either. Jones has been about .050 OPS points better against right handed pitching during his career.

Ryan Braun - FD 3900 DK 4600 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Phi (Harang) R Park- @Mil
Someone, someday, will write about the fascinating fantasy career of one Ryan Braun. After a 2 year hiatus from being useful, the Brewers' slugger has seen a resurgence in both power and speed this season, threatening a 25/25 season with nice counting stats to go with them. Now, Braun is a lot better against left handed pitching, but he's truly better against bad pitching - and that's what Aaron Harang represents. His 4.72 xFIP is the third worst in the majors among qualifying pitchers, which is to say, Ryan Braun will be able to hit this dude.

Jacoby Ellsbury - FD 2900 DK 4100 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
Brett Gardner - FD 3100 DK 4600 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
Ellsbury has put fantasy players to sleep all season, his once electric wheels traded in for whatever this current version of him seems to be. Still, he's had stretches like this before - in almost as many plate appearances in 2012 he also had 14 steals, before going off for 52 in the following season. And really, even this current production is enough to happily pay this price. He'd be on pace for a 10/28 season while leading off on a great lineup, hitting in a nice hitter's park against a league average righty. All in all, a fine play anywhere. As for Gardner, he's a very similar player to Ellsbury, minus a little speed, plus a little power. A great play as well, and a fine 1-2 stack.

Mookie Betts - FD 3500 DK 4400 Victiv 5200 Yahoo
Opponent- Sea (Nuno) L Park- @Bos
Nuno has been a heck of a lot better this season than he had been in the past, but I'm a little dubious. Meanwhile, 22 year old Mookie Betts looks like a budding star. He's crushing it at the top of the Red Sox lineup, and should have ample opportunity to do some more damage at home against Nuno. His low K rate (12.2%) rate makes him a nice double-up play, and his power/speed combo makes him an interesting upside play as well.

Mike Trout - FD 4900 DK 4800 Victiv 5800 Yahoo 23
Opponent- KC (Ventura) R Park- @KC
Just if you have ridiculous amounts of money left over. Trout is just as good against right and left handed pitching, and is an even bigger threat away from his home park, where hitters go to die. Yordano Ventura is a good name, but the 24 year old is still more prospect than producer at this point, and Trout could certainly be in line for one of his trademark monster games, here.

A million cheap guys: But too many to name here. If you're interested, go ahead and grab a free three day trial of our projection system and have a look for yourself at absolutely no risk to you.

 

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