Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Victiv 8/15/15

There are two early games on the schedule for Saturday. These picks are going to focus on the evening slate.

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Pitchers

Patrick Corbin - FD 6700 DK 7300 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Atl (Foltynewicz) r Park- @Atl
Didn't think you'd see his name up this high did you? I know there are some major arms going on this evening slate, but consider, for a moment, the savings and upside you might get from a guy like Corbin. He's priced in the basement of pitchers which allows for massive flexibility. I'm not usually inclined to recommend these pitcher punts for cash games because paying up for arms almost always makes sense. There's an exception for Corbin though. His peripherals have been outstanding this season, striking out a batter an inning and walking about two per nine. He has a 3.26 xFIP and faces a Braves team ranked near the basement against lefty arms. They strike out 21% of the time and have a .281 team wOBA. They stink. Corbin is priced like a punt, but has mid to upper tier value going. He also opens the door to stacking some of the bigger offenses. And even considering the price, I don't see him as that risky.

The upper tier of pitching looks very dice roll-ish for me today. There are quality arms going for sure, but their prospects aren't striking me as super safe. If I was to choose any of the upper tier guys it would probably be:

Jake Arrieta - FD 10500 DK 11600 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @cws
And even he doesn't strike me as any kind of lock. Dude's put up solid numbers for sure, with a 9.15 K/9 rate and lower BB/9 helping him to a sub 3 xFIP. The White Sox are a middling team against righties and strike out about 21% of the time. The ballpark here does Arrieta no favors as U.S. Cellular is one of the best hitter's parks in all of baseball. I just think he's a little pricey for his ultimate upside, though I do think that paying for pitching is almost always the way to go. That's why this slate feels so weird going in.

Consider Johnny Cueto because the Angels seem like an offensive dumpster fire of late, though his tag is through the roof too. I would also strongly consider Justin Verlander in tournaments. His second half numbers are showing a lot of promise. He's a much different pitcher than the trainwreck from earlier in the season. Not safe, but the Astros K a ton.
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Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2200 DK 3300 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Phi (Williams) R Park- @Mil
He remains criminally underpriced and I'm willing to go down on this ship if need be. Much like I wrote Robinson Cano up a million times to start the year with sufficient evidence on how he simply wasn't that bad, the same applies to Lucroy. His pricing is in the basement because of horrible luck in the BABIP department. For the season it's 40 points under his career average and in August it's a minuscule .130 in August. This run bad has his price in the basement. But today he's facing Jerome Williams' 5.34 K/9 rate. Lucroy is well above average against righties over the last couple of seasons and is still batting second. I'm playing him everywhere as long as he's in the lineup (duh).

John Jaso - FD 2500 DK 3300 Victiv 4100 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Tex (Lewis) R Park- @Tex
Makes another nice cash game play as long as he's hitting leadoff which seems to be the case when the Rays face righties. Jaso makes his bones in this split with a plus .800 OPS and 133 wRC+ over the last couple of seasons. He'll take a walk (though does K a fair amount). Today he's going in a hitter's park and I can't overstate how much value the leadoff slot gives him over the rest of the catching crew, especially considering his prices.

 

First base

Joe Mauer - FD 2400 DK 3700 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Cle (Tomlin) R Park- @Min
Josh Tomlin's been in and out of the majors over the last couple of seasons. That isn't really a ringing endorsement for the guy who has a career 5.5 K/9 rate and 4.12 xFIP. Mauer is a nice price play on a day when you might want to save up for some pitching. He is about league when it comes to hitting righties though my man will take a walk with the best of them. His 11% free pass rate over the last two seasons has cash game written all over it. He won't give you a ton of upside, but I see him as a high floor guy considering the price.

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4800 DK 5700 Victiv 5600 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Atl (Foltynewicz) r Park- @Atl
He's expensive for sure, but there isn't a lot to love at first base today (at least on FanDuel). Goldie is Goldie, an MVP candidate who while other-worldly against lefties, is merely awesome against righties. This season he has an OPS over 1K in that split with an absurd .417 wOBA. Mike Foltynewicz is a weaker arm with an xFIP in the high 4's. I see Goldschmidt as a nice separation play today as I don't think many others will allocate high dollars his way. But there is a bunch of other savings in the other positions, allowing you to free up dollars for a minefield of first base.

Consider James Loney as a boring cash game play

 

Second base

Chase Utley - FD 2400 DK 2900 Victiv 4100 Yahoo
Opponent- Mil (Nelson) R Park- @Mil
Couple of cheaper options at second again today for all of your cost-savings needs. Utley leads the list (as long as he doesn't get traded of course). He, much like Lucroy, is still way underpriced thanks to being one of the unluckiest guys in recent memory over the first part of the season. If he's hitting leadoff then the DraftKings price is especially a joke. He's put together a solid second half as since the All-Star Break his OPS is close to 1K with a .176 ISO. He's going in a hitter's park today against an average arm in Jimmy Nelson.

Anthony Rendon - FD 2600 DK 2900 Victiv 4900 Yahoo
Opponent- SF (Peavy) R Park- @SF
Our system wants you playing him at these prices, though I admit it's a tough pill to swallow (especially for me who has an impossible time swallowing pills). Rendon's lack of power is of course troubling with him coming back from injury. But we are mostly buying him on slot in the order with a favorable split against righties over the last couple of seasons. Jake Peavy's an average arm with an xFIP in the low 4's and a moderate K rate. I like Utley more for less dollars, but Rendon doesn't kill you as long as he's batting second.

Consider Enrique Hernandez if he's still batting second

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2700 DK 3700 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Mia (Hand) L Park- @Stl
Now we're talking. Love when player's prices drop like this after a bad run. Peralta's BABIP is way down in the month of August even with an increased LD% over that time. He's a much better hitter against lefties over the last couple of seasons with a .368 wOBA and .850 OPS. Those numbers are outstanding for shortstops not named Tulo or Correa. That he's coming so cheap against a lefty today makes him an easy buy and lets you get in more money on bats elsewhere in the lineup. It also helps that Brad Hand's much worse against righty bats.

I like Peralta a lot more than most of the other shortstop plays today. But I will be considering Jean Segura if the Brewers keep him in the leadoff slot. The same goes for Jimmy Rollins if he's setting the table.

Third base

There are a bunch of third base options I don't mind today. Will try and cover a bunch of different angles here.

Kris Bryant - FD 3400 DK 4600 Victiv Yahoo 17
Opponent- CWS (Quintana) L Park- @cws
This one is all about price. Jose Quintana is not the easiest of matchups (kind of a theme for this slate with so many good arms taking the bump). Bryant's an even platoon split guy (slight favorite toward righties so far) hitting in the middle of the order in one of the best power parks in baseball. He's not an overwhelming value, but could play well in tournaments with the home run upside. Again, the matchup isn't ideal, but I like the other factors going in for him.

Todd Frazier - FD 3200 DK 4100 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- LAD (Anderson) L Park- @Lad
Somewhat of the same situation as Bryant. Brett Anderson isn't a bum, but Frazier's put in decent work over the last couple of seasons against lefty pitching. His mid .800's OPS and 10% walk rate play a little better for cash games than Bryant. Frazier doesn't have as good a ballpark, but his price is very much a value considering the slot in the lineup and the dip in salary thanks to some power struggles of late.

Jake Lamb - FD 2600 DK 3400 Victiv 3900 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Atl (Foltynewicz) r Park- @Atl
If you want to go a little cheaper then you can think about Lamb against Foltynewicz (a name that's a nightmare to type). Lamb's been an even split guy this season but slightly better against righties for his career. If he can get into the fifth or sixth slot in the lineup then you can save a dollar or two with his bat. Not a good power park, but I like the matchup.

 

Outfield

Yasiel Puig - FD 3000 DK 3500 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Cin (Holmberg) L Park- @Lad
Scott Van Slyke - FD 2700 DK 2800 Victiv 3300 Yahoo 7
Opponent- Cin (Holmberg) L Park- @Lad
Are you familiar with David Holmberg's work? Oh no? Let me bring you up to speed. In his limited time in the majors, Holmberg is walking close to five batters per nine, striking out around 6.5, sporting a high 5's xFIP and just generally pitching batting practice (if the BP coach also issued walks). Puig and Van Slyke are in prime position to put up numbers in this matchup. They hit 5-6 in the lineup last night against the lefty and I suspect it plays out the same way tonight. Makes little sense to have Rollins and Hernandez at the top of the lineup, but I don't get to make those somewhat easy decisions. I'm playing both these guys tonight on the power upside as they both hit lefties well with Van Slyke being an extreme platoon guy in this split.

Adam Jones - FD 3200 DK 4200 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Oak (Bassitt) R Park- @Bal
Coming cheaper across the board as has been his station for much of the short term. Jones is an even splits guy for his career, though has been better against lefties over the shorter term. He's putting up the power numbers this season which is how his bread is buttered. He doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and he doesn't steal bases. It's home runs or bust for much of the time. But when the price comes down into this tier we can buy him rather safely against a middling righty like Bassitt.

Josh Reddick - FD 2300 DK 3900 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Bal (Gonzalez) R Park- @Bal
He's way under priced on FanDuel where I see him as close to a must play. Hitting third in the lineup against Miguel Gonzalez in one of the best power parks in baseball is a fantastic spot. Reddick's tuned up righties over the last two seasons with a .375 wOBA and 146 wRC+. We have him as one of the top points/ dollar plays on the board and he offers so much savings relative to his upside. Don't let the short term results sway you here. This is a big discount.

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