Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks
FanDuel, DraftStreet, and DraftKings 4/23/14

A full slate of games this Wednesday with some early start times. Always fun to roll early and late lineups, with a little juice going all day long. Let's get to it.

A quick note - our baseball product for FanDuel is LIVE!. It's going to be free until the end of the regular season in basketball - so PLEASE, if you have any feedback, we'd love to hear it!

Also, we are very close to finalizing our projection systems for DraftKings and DraftStreet. These should be live and available before the end of the week. We are excited to bring these to you.

 

Pitchers

Michael Wacha FanDuel 8100 DraftKings 11200 DraftStreet 20139
Considering the matchup, Wacha is coming at a discount on FanDuel, while being in the discussion on the other two sites. The Mets, being the Mets, rank near the bottom of the league in nearly every relevant hitting category against righties, with their OPS in dead last. Wacha has been striking out nearly a guy an inning and could boost those totals a bit against a team that swings and misses a bunch. The bottom of the Mets order is a true travesty and getting to face the pitcher is just an added bonus.

Zack Greinke FanDuel 9400 DraftKings 11700 DraftStreet 19858
I really don't love overpaying for Greinke, but there are big time question marks with the starting pitcher corps today. Guys like Masterson and Weaver are just too scary. Gio has a tough matchup and Hamels is coming back from injury. That leaves Greinke. He is striking out guys at a rate I don't think is sustainable for him, mostly because it's so out of whack with his career numbers that you don't see spikes like this. But the Phillies are a great matchup. They have only one truly scary hitter in Utley and the rest of their squad is spare parts and strikeout kings. They rank near the bottom of the league against righties.

Early only - Jeff Samardzija FanDuel 7500 DraftKings 10300 DraftStreet 18562
If you are playing the early slate I think you need to pitch him on FD and DK. The other options are really rough. This is more about the lesser of all the evils if playing the early games. He has K potential and the D-Backs do swing and miss.

Buy low Ace?
Cole Hamels FanDuel 8200 DraftKings 9200 DraftStreet 17465
Never a great feeling to buy a pitcher in his first start of the season, coming back from injury. But if we look at this as opening day for Hamels, there is actually a lot to like. The Dodgers have struck out the most in the league against lefties this season at almost a 30% clip. That's a huge number and if it weren't for the lowly Mets, they'd be runaway losers in that category. LA's best hitters are free swingers and the bottom of their lineup is trash. It's a pitcher's park. I think you can fire him off in a GPP.

Cheap filler
Jake Odorizzi FanDuel 4300 DraftKings 6100 DraftStreet 12914
This one is mostly about low prices. I'm willing to take a chance on him in situations in which I need to start more than one pitcher mostly because the Twins are prone to K and some of the their early season success is Babip fueled. Again, this is strictly a guy with some upside because of the park and the price.

 

Catchers

Jason Castro FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 6092
Have to love this matchup for Castro. He really hammered right handed pitching last season and Chris Young is a big, tall batting practice machine. Young is so trash it's scary. Makes me almost want to stack some cheap Astros today. He's k'd less than 4 guys per 9. He's walked more guys than he's struck out. He is terrible. Castro is the top catching play today by a fair margin for the money. I'm kind of hesitant to suggest anyone else.

Victor Martinez FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7630
Again, he is a significant downgrade in point per dollar expectation from Castro, but in the late slate you need to play some. If he's eligible at catcher on your site, I'd get him in there against Rienzo.

Yan Gomes FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 2900 DraftStreet 4745
Has been striking out entirely too much this early season, but still can be targeted when he squares up against a lefty.

 

First Basemen

Miguel Cabrera FanDuel 3800 DraftKings 5100 DraftStreet 9037
He's back. It's funny, there was a minor Twitter debate happening yesterday concerning Miggy's done-ness. That was put to bed in a couple swings of the bat. His price hasn't fully corrected for him being a top 5 (2? 1?) hitter in the game and you are still buying crazy low on sites like FanDuel. Faces off against Andre Rienzo, a Triple A pitcher. Is a great matchup to stay hot with.

Allen Craig FanDuel 2500 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5225
This is a price thing. Craig is coming real low because he has struggled to start the year. Some of this can be attributed to a Babip nearly 100 points lower than his career average. Though he isn't a complete lefty killer, he had a 780 OPS against southpaws last season. Again, I'm more on board with the price for Craig as it's getting close to minimums on these sites. He hit second in the order last night and won't fall too low in this lineup.

Nick Swisher FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 3800 DraftStreet 5937
Another guy running bad in Babip while the rest of his numbers have held in line with his career averages. It's always worth getting Swisher in against lefties, especially ones like Vargas. I'm stacking the Indians today in some spots because their prices are just so depressed based on some early season struggles.

Joey Votto FanDuel 4100 DraftKings 5200 DraftStreet 8449
Charlie Morton doesn't strike many guys out and he hasn't gotten as many groundballs early in the season. Votto is always in play in cash games because his strikeout numbers are low and the walks are high. For around the same money, I'm probably running Miggy in most spots, but Votto makes a nice play as well.

Consider: David Ortiz

 

Second Basemen

Ian Kinsler FanDuel 3700 DraftKings 5600 DraftStreet 9475
Hope you started him yesterday. Because he paid. I'll always prefer him facing a lefty, but Rienzo is barely a major league pitcher and the Tigers have a good chance to put a bunch of runs on the scoreboard again today. The splits are the wrong side for Kinsler, but I think he'll have an extra AB to work with here if the Tigers can put some runs on the board.

Ryan Raburn FanDuel 2200 DraftKings 3000 DraftStreet 3831
Needs to be starting but he plays against lefties so I feel confident with it. Loving the Indians today against Vargas, if you haven't noticed already. You will usually see Raburn show up when he is facing the southpaw because he OPS'ed over 1K last season in that split. he comes super cheap across the board and makes an upside play or a way to get some salary relief.

Ben Zobrist FanDuel 3400 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 8158
Pelfrey is so, so awful. Every number you'd want from a good pitcher is the opposite for Pelf. ERA? Close to 8. xFIP? Right with it. He's walking about 1.5 more guys per nine than he's striking out. He sucks. Zobrist makes a strong play today, and you can consider putting together a mini-Rays stack against Big Pelf.

Aaron Hill FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4300 DraftStreet 4811
The price is just so low across the industry because of his early season struggles. Take a flyer on the upside in Wrigley.

 

Shortstops

Jonathan Villar FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 3300 DraftStreet 4804
Hit ninth last night. Really hoping he moves up in the order tonight. Chris Young, as we went through with Castro, is fucking terrible. Just atrocious. Villar's biggest issue is that he strikes out a ton. Thankfully that part of baseball isn't in Young's repertoire. Villar comes so cheap, has a little pop, steals bases and the Astros should be able to put up some extra runs tonight.

Jose Reyes FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 7477
I don't mind Reyes today against Tillman, a pitcher getting overrated a tad because his Era is so low to start the season. His xFIP is more in line with his career numbers and is set to regress some. The Blue Jays are a strong offense and on a day where deals can be had in other places, paying for Reyes isn't a terrible idea. (How's that for a sales pitch?)

 

Third Basemen

Carlos Santana FanDuel 2700 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5229
He might just be broken. It's getting awfully hard for me to keep throwing him out there, but third base is, in general, a weak position and he has upside at these prices. Unfortunately, he's been striking out at a crazy clip. One bright spot is his walks are up. Santana is a much better hitter against lefties and Jason Vargas isn't a power pitcher. I am still buying low on Carlos, drumming this up to an early season slump.

Pablo Sandoval FanDuel 3200 DraftKings 4000 DraftStreet 5105
Going to recommend him as long as he's still playing in Coors. Sandoval is a better hitter against righties with a 345 wOBA last season. Chatwood gets a ton of groundballs which will limit the Giant's power upside. But I still think the price is right on Panda. He's a great deal on DraftStreet, almost a must start there factoring in for price, splits and park.

Consider: Chase Headley and Evan Longoria

 

Outfielders

Matt Holliday FanDuel 3300 DraftKings 4200 DraftStreet 5728
I like Holliday facing off against the lefty Niese and Matt is coming at some crazy bargains, especially on DraftStreet. That salary is nuts. He hasn't flashed much power this season, but it's early and I am not seeing much to concern me in some of his batted ball numbers except that the grounders have increased a tad. Though that number tends to stabilize early, I think you can still buy low on him.

Billy Hamilton FanDuel 2800 DraftKings 4500 DraftStreet 6416
Liked him yesterday as a top pick and he went 2-4 with a run and a swiped bag. I'm generally targeting Hamilton against pitchers who lack overpowering stuff. Morton also induces ground balls which actually plays to Hamilton's ultimate weapon in his speed. If he gets the ball on the ground, he has a chance to get on base. Still like his potential today to be causing havoc on the basepaths. It's always tough to pay for speed, but I think you are doing that today in the OF.

Dexter Fowler FanDuel 2900 DraftKings 3700 DraftStreet 5917
Thank you Chris Young. Can you say Astro stack? Seems nuts, but I think putting Fowler, Villar and Castro together in some spots today is a sneaky move. Springer too possibly. Fowler has some power and some speed. He has neither in great abundance, but enough to pay his low prices. He had a 330 wOBA against righties last season and isn't a threat to get overpowered here.

Christian Yelich FanDuel 3000 DraftKings 0 DraftStreet 7192
Another instance of paying for speed in the OF. Yelich has started the year strong by getting on base at a 40% clip (babip fueled for sure, but he walks 10% of the time) and scoring runs. The Marlins are running hot in general, but our system doesn't account for that really. It likes Yelich on his own merit and that he handles righties well. Aaron Harang has been about as lucky as you can get for a starting pitcher this year. His sub 1 ERA is an aberration.

Consider Austin Jackson, Torii Hunter, Matt Joyce

 

Remember! You can use our Baseball Lineup Construction Tool for free until mid-April. Please check it out and give us feedback!

You can also sign up for our mailing list by using the column in the sidebar (and you'll get a free eBook on setting Daily Fantasy Basketball lineups. The Baseball eBook is on its way). Our mailing list puts the picks in your inbox like a freshly baked pie.