Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo 8/11/15

Full disclaimer - this is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings, Victiv, and Yahoo.

 

Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner - FD 11900 DK 11100 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Hou (Kazmir) L Park- @SF
Matt Harvey - FD 11200 DK 10900 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Nym
It feels a little bit like a cop-out to give you both of these guys at the top of the list, but give me a moment to explain. Our projection system thinks they're basically a coin flip, and I tend to agree. The Rockies can hit right handed pitching, and the Astros can hit left handed pitching. But both of them strike out a phenomenal amount of time (on the road for the Rockies, against lefties for the Astros). Both of these games are in good pitcher's parks, though San Francisco is a significantly better pitching environment even than Citi Field. On the other hand, Harvey seems much more likely to get a win against Rusin than Bumgarner is against Kazmir.

What tips the scales toward Bumgarner, for me, is simply that he's a better pitcher. He strikes out more guys, and his xFIP is .30 runs better than Harvey's. Still, though, I can picture playing either here, and didn't want to overstate the case in either direction. A reasonably 50/50 strategy would be to play basically the same lineups and go half and half.

Taylor Jungmann - FD 8400 DK 8700 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @ChC
If you're looking to cut in a different direction in a big tournament, consider Taylor Jungmann. He's significantly less off the radar than he was before his last start, but our projection system has been something of a believer (at least on these prices) for a while. He's a strong ground-ball pitcher who's managed the wildness he showed in the minors significantly, and has put together a few very high end starts in the last month or so. And really, there's no higher upside match-up than taking a righty against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have struck out in an unreal 24.3% of their plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, the very highest number in the league, and the Dan Haren bubble has been in the process of slowly bursting for his last four starts. I don't think I'd play him in a 50/50, but I love Jungmann if you're reaching for the stars and want to spend up on hitting.

Taijuan Walker - FD 6900 DK 8400 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Bal (Tillman) R Park- @Sea
If you want to REALLY reach for the stars and save a ton, Taijuan Walker is really interesting. Now, this could be a complete disaster, but there's real potential here. Walker has top prospect pedigree, is just 22 years old, and has managed a 8.79 K/9 in the major leagues this season. He has a few monster performances - 23 FanDuel Fantasy points against the Twins two starts ago comes to mind - and some real stinkers as well. The Orioles are the team that allows both of those types of performances. They have the 3rd highest K rate in the league versus right handed pitching, but have the 9th highest wOBA. Playing in Safeco should help Walker a bit here as well. I'll consider him a higher upside, less safe version of Jungmann.

 

Just killing time until fantasy football season? Fantasy Pros has a pretty cool mock drafting software you can check out!

 

Catchers

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3200 DK 4000 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Was (Ross) R Park- @Lad
Grandal's track record against right handed pitching this season stands for itself - you just aren't going to find many catchers with a .900+ OPS against a certain kind of pitcher, and Grandal is that. He's awesome. But let's focus on Ross for a second. At first glance, he looks like an ace in the making. 47 Ks against 4 BBs in 45 IP? He's like Cliff Lee 2.0. Or is he? Every team Ross has faced this season are in the top 12 in the majors in K%. While his first 45 major league innings have been very impressive (regardless of opponents), I'll trust his minor league track record instead - which paints a picture of a pitch-to-contact guy who should be pretty decent. Grandal can hit that. I'll play him in any format.

Stephen Vogt - FD 2300 DK 3700 Victiv 4200 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
If you spend up on pitching today, I think Vogt makes a pretty interesting high upside option. He's got an .846 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and his 15 homers (all but 1 against RHP) are 3 off the league lead for his position. Drew Hutchison doesn't deserve the ERA he's saddled with this season, but he has been legit bad since the beginning of July, and it could be a nice RBI upside spot to grab Vogt. Don't mind him in a double-up, either.

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2500 DK 3300 Victiv 4600 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Chc (Haren) R Park- @ChC
After a god-awful start to the season, Lucroy had a .773 OPS in July, and looks to be pretty much recovered from his early season injury woes. He's been significantly better against left handed pitching during his career, but Haren is the definition of a pitch-to-contact guy at this point in his career, and Wrigley is a fine place to pitch. To be clear, I like the above guys way more than Lucroy, but the people like 3 guys per position, so 3 guys per position they get! Really, though, this is a value play. It's a very low price to pay for a catcher that can really hit, and that's the end of the story.

 

First base

Albert Pujols - FD 3400 DK 4400 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 17
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @cws
So, Pujols has been pretty awful against LHP this season, but try to get too upset about it. If it weren't for his absurdly low .183 BABIP against lefties, Pujols would be having a phenomenal season. He's making hard contact against pitchers of all handedness, and while some of his reduced BABIP is due to his oldish body, most of that is due to awful luck. Meanwhile, there's Rodon. Few young pitchers have his long term upside, but he's basically skating by on electricity alone at this point. His 5.31 BB/9 would be the worst in the majors by 1.22 BB/9 in the majors. That's awful. He's just not really a major leaguer yet. Love Pujols in every format.

Joey Votto - FD 3600 DK 4500 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 20
Opponent- SD (Rea) R Park- @SD
Just so many riches at first base today that it's hard to choose, but you could do a lot worse than Votto. My man has a .991 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and Petco shouldn't depress what he does best - get on base against bad right handed pitching. Colin Rea will be making his first start in the major league, after he struggled mightily in 26 innings in AAA. This will be batting practice, and it will all be a matter of where the lasers off of Votto's bat land.

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4600 DK 5500 Victiv 5800 Yahoo 20
Opponent- Phi (Buchanan) R Park- @Ari
It's Paul Goldschmidt week on DFSR! FanDuel finally corrected whatever error in their algorithm was leading to Goldschmidt being priced below $4,000, and the fact that he remains a good value at these prices tells you about all you need to know. It's three nights in row mentioning this, but Paul has a 1K+ OPS against right handed pitching this season, so you shouldn't sweat the righty/righty thing. Meanwhile, David Buchanan could hardly be worse. His 4.91 xFIP is higher than his bad 4.75 K/9, and he just isn't cut out for this major league pitching thing at this point. If you can afford it, it will be hard to turn Goldschmidt down.

 

Second base

Dee Gordon - FD 3000 DK 4300 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Bos (Wright) R Park- @Mia
For such a huge slate, second base is pretty damned awful tonight. To that end, Dee Gordon looks like an easy play in both big tournaments and double-ups today. His slap-hitting, high average style lends itself very well to consistent performance, and his game-changing speed means he'll occasionally be the highest scoring guy at his position as well. Gordon and the Marlins will be squaring off against Steven Wright, whose 4.65 xFIP would be the 6th worst in the majors if he qualified. Easy start from where I'm sitting.

Wilmer Flores - FD 2400 DK 3400 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 7
Opponent- Col (Rusin) L Park- @Nym
Like Lucroy above, I like Flores leagues behind Gordon. But I do think he has a place in the recommendations today. If you really need to save a few bucks, I'd take a gander. Flores seems to have come to against left handed pitching this season. His .854 OPS and 4 home runs in 78 PA against southpaws this season are quite good for the position, and while it's a small sample size, it fits the profile of what he projected as from the minors. Rusin gives up a lot of hard hit balls has allowed a staggering .372 wOBA against right handers during his career. I think this is a good spot if you want to save up.

Also considered: Chase Utley. With 3 doubles in his last 5 at bats, I'm starting to wonder if our projection system was right in guessing that his ridiculous BABIP luck would turn at some point. He's still making hard contact, and Hellickson allows a lot of hard contact. He feels like a high floor alternative to Flores, especially given that he'll likely be leading off.

 

Shortstop

Jhonny Peralta - FD 2600 DK 3700 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Pit (Locke) L Park- @Stl
Peralta has the 2nd most home runs at his position, and the 3rd highest wOBA, and his price continues to plummet. Because he's had a bad week? WTF? This is baseball, and 6 bad games is literally nothing. Peralta has also been about .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching for his career, and while it hasn't played out that way this season, I'll take his body of work over 3/4 a season's worth of at bats. Jeff Locke is a below average pitcher, and even though he's got good ground-ball numbers, I think Peralta has nice upside to go with a great points per dollar floor.

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2900 DK 3500 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Was (Ross) R Park- @Lad
Wrote Rollins up a couple nights ago, and not much has changed. Here's what I wrote then:

Back in the leadoff spot, Rollins has posted a positive fantasy score in 9 straight games, along with two very nice games in that time. Yes, J-Roll is older than old, but with 11 homers and 9 steals, he's still what passes for an upside play at shortstop. And leading off really raises his floor dramatically - the extra at bats and good line-up mates really help. I'll take him in any format and feel happy about getting away from a terrible position with a good player.

Rollins should get 5 PA in this game, and it will be tough for him not to do something on that production. While I prefer Peralta, Rollins could have more upside here, and I like him quite a bit.

Xander Bogaerts - FD 3300 DK 3800 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Mia
Do you have any idea what Bogaerts is doing to left handed pitching this season? His .933 OPS would great for any position, and for a shortstop, it's downright ridiculous. While some of that is BABIP fueled, we now have a 302 PA sample for the 22 year old against left handed pitching, and the trends are clear - he's a plug hitter by any metric. Tonight he'll face someone called Justin Nicolino, a non-prospect innings eater who averaged less than 5 Ks/9 IP in the minors in the last two seasons. Upside through the roof here, even in a tough hitter's park.

 

Third base

Todd Frazier - FD 2900 DK 4200 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- SD (Rea) R Park- @SD
I avoided putting Frazier in the picks last night because I was a little spooked at the righty/righty spot against Kennedy. But I just can't duck and hide at a $2,900 price for a guy with his upside. I mean, he still has an .801 OPS and 16 homers in 312 PA against right handed pitching this season, right? So I don't think we can chicken out in taking him against Colin Rea, especially with the big left handed bats around him getting a bump in OBP, giving him more counting stats opportunity.

Kris Bryant - FD 3300 DK 4600 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Mil (Jungmann) R Park- @Chc
Well, our projection system wants to keep giving you Kris Bryant against right handed pitching, and who am I to disagree? And it's starting to look like Bryant isn't just an upside guy. He's got 10 games in a row with a positive FanDuel score, and a man with 80 power is always capable of putting a huge number on the board. Bryant's strike-out problems certainly keep his floor lower than it likely will be someday, but Jungmann isn't a true top tier strike-out threat, and Bryant looks like a fantastic play if you're in a large tournament.

Mike Moustakas - FD 2200 DK 3300 Victiv 4200 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Det (Sanchez) R Park- @KC
The resident high floor punt play for the position, Moustakas bats 2nd on a good hitting team - which is really all he needs to do to justify the minimum price on FanDuel. He's a high contact guy with a good approach (8% walk rate, 14% K rate) against right handed pitching, and his .801 OPS against northpaws is nice as well. Now, Anibal Sanchez is not a terrible pitcher or anything, but his skills have drifted to the point where he's about league average at best. I don't see much upside here unless he runs hot on counting stats, but if you pay up big for pitching, he is a nice way to get away from a tough position cheaply.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 4700 DK 5300 Victiv 6200 Yahoo 23
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @cws
Trout's an absolute animal, and you know this already. I've given you the case against Rodon and his absurd wildness. In this one, you'll get the world's best player for less than $5,000 in a great hitter's park against a pitcher who can't keep up. Yup. If you can afford him, you simply have to play him.

Hanley Ramirez - FD 3400 DK 4200 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Mia (Nicolino) L Park- @Mia
Hanley's not been a ton to write home about this season, but 19 home runs in 397 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at, and Hanley's been about .060 OPS points better against left handed pitching during his career. Did I poke fun at Nicolino enough in Bogaerts write-up? I think so. Ramirez has lost more than a step, sure, but he can still get a hold of one against guys without stuff, and Nicolino certainly qualifies. Not a 50/50 play by any means, but I do like the upside.

Jay Bruce - FD 3000 DK 4000 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 18
Opponent- SD (Rea) R Park- @SD
Speaking of players who can destroy opposite handed pitching, I'll submit Jay Bruce. He's got a career .223 ISO against right handed pitching, and is about .090 OPS points better against them. San Diego isn't a great place to hit for power, but Bruce's bell-tower power plays anywhere. And Rea's the right guy for the job if you want to hit long balls.

Justin Upton - FD 3200 DK 4500 Victiv 5100 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Cin (Lorenzen) R Park- @Sd
Matt Kemp - FD 2800 DK 3800 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Cin (Lorenzen) R Park- @Sd
It's a real testament to how bad the Padres are at hitting that we could make it this far without listing a single one against Michael Lorenzen, but here we are. Lorenzen's got Rodon's walk rate with a weak 6 K's per 9, making him one of the very best match-ups in all of daily fantasy baseball. Not ideal that he's a righty, of course, but first and foremost, he's bad. Good hitters against bad pitcher at reasonable prices - I'm in.

The Cheap Options

Josh Reddick - FD 2500 DK 4100 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Tor (Hutchison) R Park- @Tor
Billy Hamilton - FD 2500 DK 3800 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 14
Opponent- SD (Rea) R Park- @SD
Joc Pederson - FD 2600 DK 3700 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Was (Ross) R Park- @Lad
There are a zillion cheap options today, but I figured I'd highlight three that are here for different reasons. Hamilton's the elite upside speed guy, Pederson is your upside power threat, and Reddick should be a safe play for your cash games.

 

Be sure to try out a free 3-day trial to the projection system that helps produce these picks for the MLB! And check out our free MLB ebook below.