Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo and Victiv 7/27/15

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Pitchers

Anibal Sanchez - FD 8700 DK 10200 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- TB (Karns) R Park- @TB
While it'll be tempting to take Lance Lynn today for more money, it makes me a little concerned that the Reds have been an above average team against righties this season and have one of the lowest strikeout rates in that platoon at only 18%. For slightly less money you are getting a slightly worse pitcher in a much better matchup with Anibal. It's close, believe me and I don't think he's a significantly better play than Lynn. But the Rays are the second worst team in baseball against righties this season, the park allows almost no power and Sanchez's peripherals are fine enough considering the prices (though he's getting up there on DK). The matchup and ballpark swing the tide here for me.

Lance Lynn - FD 9500 DK 11100 Victiv Yahoo 54
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Stl
Remember how I was talking about Lynn a second ago? I still think he's in contention today simply because he's by far the biggest strikeout guy on the slate and even in a bad matchup should be on your radar. I just don't think he's leaps and bounds (from a points per dollar standpoint) better than some of the other guys going. That being said, his strikeout rate is more than a batter an inning and he's putting up an xFIP in the low 3's this season. Basically, he's putting it together thanks to developing much more trust in the fastball; throwing it more than at any other point in his career. Again, warning: this isn't the best matchup, but he's the best overall arm on the slate.

Kyle Lohse - FD 5200 DK 4900 Victiv Yahoo 37
Opponent- SF (Heston) R Park- @SF
This is mostly a DK value, tournament play. Lohse has been crazy unlucky with his strand rate this year and is coming about as low as you'll ever see a pitcher on DraftKings. The Giants are a good hitting team, but the ballpark helps Lohse some by knocking down power and his xFIP is more than two runs lower than the mid 6's ERA. He's not safe by any means, but you can turn out some value here and really load up on bats with his salary.

Consider Chris Heston

 

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Catchers

Victor Martinez - FD 3300 DK 3400 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 16
Opponent- TB (Karns) R Park- @TB
Because for these picks we often need to pick a lane and stick with it, typically the writeups are geared slightly more towards FanDuel pricing. It's nearly impossible, in this space, to write for each specific site and all of the different value plays on a given slate. That's where our system comes in. So yes, I know V-Mart doesn't qualify for catcher on some of the other sites. But on FD he's a bargain today (and honestly he is at 1B on DK as well). Hitting third in the lineup, Martinez's been plagued by some BABIP issues this season (about 40 points off his career averages) and that's helped to drive down his prices nearly everywhere. The ISO's taking a dip too so it isn't all bad luck, but his spot in the lineup and price has me grabbing him in spots.

Welington Castillo - FD 2600 DK 3000 Victiv 3600 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Sea (Montgomery) L Park- @Sea
Like your catchers to be catcher-eligible on every site do ya? Ok then, have it your way. After a few days off, I suspect Castillo to be in the lineup against the lefty Montgomery today. Welington's had a fair amount of success against lefties over the last couple of years with an OPS over .800 and a 128 wRC+ on that platoon. He is coming dirt cheap and there could be something to a D-Back stack here and there.

 

First base

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 4700 DK 6000 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 22
Opponent- Sea (Montgomery) L Park- @Sea
There are a couple of different ways to go at first base today, but because pitching won't cost you an arm and a leg paying up for Goldie is just what the Doctor (what I like to call myself around the house) ordered. Goldschmidt is typically priced out of consideration even though he's putting up MVP numbers. But today he's facing off against a lefty in Mike Montgomery. The latter isn't bad mind you, it's just that Goldschmidt is about as good as one player can be against lefty pitching. Over the last two seasons he's put up an astounding .476 wOBA and 205 wRC+. Only Tulo looks better in this split over that period of time. I'm paying up here especially considering the aforementioned state of pitching salaries. Only the ballpark is against Big Paul in this one, and that doesn't sway me a great deal.

Jose Abreu - FD 3200 DK 4800 Victiv 5500 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Bos (Kelly) R Park- @Bos
You know we just can't help ourselves with this guy. Doubt we've included one player more in the picks than Abreu. He isn't having the same season as his 2014 campaign, but still very much in the mix at these prices. More looking the FanDuel savings as I'd much rather pay a little more for Goldschmidt on DraftKings. But Abreu comes at a discount against a weaker righty in Joe Kelly. Abreu can hit in this platoon and he has shown consistency with both splits.

 

Second base

Jason Kipnis - FD 3700 DK 4900 Victiv 5200 Yahoo 18
Opponent- KC (Volquez) R Park- @Cle
I don't plan on just choosing the highest priced players at each position. And those who read us consistently know that isn't our style. But you can afford to do it on this slate. Kipnis, hitting leadoff, has put in work this season thanks to a decreased K rate, a slight uptick in the walks, and some BABIP love. Those stats have all converged to put him close to a .900 OPS on the season and a major bounceback from the slight horror that was his 2014. I like him a great deal against the very average Edinson Volquez. His DK salary will cost you and at some point you won't be able to afford everyone. But Kipnis is one of those upside plays especially because he can mix in some speed here and there.

Kolten Wong - FD 2900 DK 4000 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 15
Opponent- Cin (Iglesias) R Park- @Stl
If you want to save a little at second you've got another leadoff hitter in Kolten Wong setting the table for the Cardinals. The matchup is a little worse than Kipnis seeing as how Raisel Iglesias does dial up some strikeouts from time to time. But Wong's coming at a nice discount of late. Don't think you need to go too much cheaper than him and over the last few seasons he's been a tick above average against righty pitching. The leadoff spot is what gives Kolten the biggest boost considering the plate appearance expectation is higher than most others at his position.

 

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts - FD 2700 DK 3600 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @Bos
You'll need to save some money somewhere on this slate if you want to roster the bigger bats and going on the skimpy side for shortstop almost always makes sense. Xander's been a perfectly pleasant hitter against lefties over his first two seasons with a 138 wRC+ and OPS creeping toward .800. You won't have to pay much for his services, he's hitting towards the middle of the order and gets to face up against the always below average John Danks. Danks is a fun guy to pick on seeing as how the K rate is less than seven per nine with a mid 4's xFIP.

Starlin Castro - FD 2200 DK 2900 Victiv 4300 Yahoo 11
Opponent- Col (de la Rosa) L Park- @Chc
If you really want to save and go full on punt style with shortstop then the weak hitting, but nearly free Starlin Castro might do you solid. He's perfectly average against lefty pitching over the last couple of years and doesn't bat last like so many other shortstops. Look, sometimes those are the nicest things you can say about this position which is why we rarely spend up here.

Third base

Kris Bryant - FD 3100 DK 4600 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 19
Opponent- Col (de la Rosa) L Park- @Chc
He's close to a must start for me on FanDuel where the price is starting to hit a breaking point. Close on DK where you will have to make some real decisions with the bigger money guys today. But Bryant is in a good spot against de la Rosa today. Now Jorge isn't the worst ever and is victimized by having to pitch in Coors for roughy half of his games. But dude's also wild as hell and Wrigley is a good hitter's park in its own right. Bryant doesn't have a ton of major league service time, but he's a stud and in his limited run he's put up a high .800's OPS and 138 wRC+ in this platoon. He K's a ton, but also takes a lot of walks as a three true outcome guy. Like the upside here a lot.

Strongly consider Mike Moustakas if you want to go a little cheaper.

 

Outfield

Dexter Fowler - FD 2700 DK 3900 Victiv 4400 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Col (de la Rosa) L Park- @Chc
As a switch hitter, Fowler does most of his damage from the right side of the plate against lefties. This season's been no different with a .360 wOBA in that platoon thanks to some patience and a little BABIP help. But that backs up what he's done over his career against southpaws. Hitting leadoff for the Cubs against Jorge de la Rosa, a high K/ high walk pitcher could mean some Cubs stacks are in order. I really like Fowler's price across the industry.

Hanley Ramirez - FD 3400 DK 4200 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 18
Opponent- CWS (Danks) L Park- @Bos
Another dude who puts a hurting on lefty pitching, Hanley's been one of the better bats in this split over the last couple of seasons. His OPS in that platoon is close to .900 with a .386 wOBA. Like we said with Xander, John Danks who's been tossed around like a rag doll against righty bats in the short term, allowing an OPS over .800 to that hand. Hanley's right in that middle tier of pricing you sometimes have trouble filling in. Especially on a day like today with some lower salaries across the board.

Nolan Reimold - FD 2200 DK 2000 Victiv 3200 Yahoo 12
Opponent- Atl (Wood) L Park- @Bal
A great way to go cheap on this slate. Our system's had him as a DK value play for quite sometime considering he's the lowest you can get over there and has been in an around the middle of the order at times for the O's. He's an above average hitter against lefty pitching over the last couple of years with a 113 wRC+ and faces off against Alex Wood today. This is a punt play pure and simple if you are looking to roster the more expensive arms as well as some bigger bats.
Strongly consider Nelson Cruz and Austin Jackson
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