Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel. Yahoo, Victiv and DraftKings 7/26/15

Sunday, Sunday, Someday! This is a massive slate, and there's no way I could ever possibly list every decent play today. So, I'll do my best in highlighting whom I believe to be the elite plays. If you want the rest? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitchers

Note: Yes, we saw Cole Hamels' game last night. Yes, I picked Arrieta ahead of Hamels. But don't blame our projection system! It liked Hamels better, and I used my lovely eyeball test to go with Arrieta. Scorn me!

More serious note: Our system kinda hates the big four guys going today (DeGrom, Greinke, Cole, and Keuchel). Cole, Keuchel, and DeGrom have bad match-ups, and Greinke looks overpriced. One or more of these guys will have a good game, because they are awesome. No doubt about it. But what follows are the best value plays from our projection system's perspective on a points per dollar basis. Good luck!

Danny Salazar - FD 8800 DK 10400 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @Cle
I gave you Carrasco against the Sox yesterday, and got served my lunch. But I'm going back to the well again with Salazar today. Why? Well, his 10.66 K/9 is the fourth best in the majors, and it's no fluke - it's about his average since he came to the major leagues. He's got a sub 3 xFIP this season, and his electric stuff means he'll have the potential to be the highest upside pitcher going any time he takes the mound. He's had some disasters, too. But I like him quite a bit in this match-up with the White Sox. They've struck out in 20.9% of their plate appearances against right handed pitching this season, and have compiled the league's 6th worst wOBA against northpaws. They're also starting Carlos Rodon, who will need a lot of refinement before he strikes fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers. On a day where the true aces are either facing each other (or in bad match-ups), I like Salazar quite a bit.

Jason Hammel - FD 8500 DK 8700 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Nola) R Park- @Chc
It's an odd late-life arrival for Jason Hammel, but we're now on 1.5 seasons and 284 innings of 3.35 xFIP ball. That's damned solid, and nothing to sneeze at. For fantasy purposes, he's also been striking out a guy an inning this season. What's not to like, here? He's not a big name, sure, but you can save up nicely and go in a direction that many may not. Today he'll face the Phillies, and they are dead last in terms of wOBA against right handed pitching this season. They're also starting Aaron Nola - a polished prospect from LSU who rose through the minors quickly. The bad thing for Nola, though, is that he has a markedly limited ceiling, and I'm not sure he's as ready as he ought to be given how terrible the Phillies' rotation has been this year. Hammel should be in a good spot for a win here, and I can see playing him in any format.

Mat Latos - FD 6900 DK 8000 Victiv Yahoo
Opponent- SD (Despaigne) R Park- @SD
I also went with Yordano Ventura for the "punt guy basically no one will grab," but I went with Latos instead because I think Ventura will have a very tough time grabbing a win (even if he has huge upside against the K happy 'Stros). Picking against the Friars is an easy call - they've struck out at the league's 5th highest rate while putting together the 3rd worst wOBA. That's pretty bad. They're starting Odrisamer Despaigne, who also is bad. The game is in Petco, which is great for pitchers. We're 5 sentences in and I haven't mentioned Latos. Listen - I know it's a lousy ERA, and he hasn't looked like himself in quite a while. But there's signs of life. His xFIP is 3.55, and he is striking out 8.08 guys per 9 innings this season. This is an upside play, plain and simple. Just an intriguing punt to throw in there and try and win fame and fortune, and I think it could really pay off.
 

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Catchers

Yan Gomes - FD 2300 DK 2900 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @Cle
Shake your Yan-Yan! It's been a tough season so far for Gomes, which is why he's priced like a bottom of the barrel guy. But you're looking at a 29 year old with an .815 career OPS against left handed pitching facing an erratic young lefty who's walking almost 6 guys per inning in the major leagues. While Gomes' big strikeout rate makes him seem risky, I think the combination of Rodon's wildness and Gomes' low price makes him a high floor daily fantasy baseball play on a day with very few of them at catcher.

Stephen Vogt - FD 2500 DK 3500 Victiv 4000 Yahoo 17
Opponent- SF (Hudson) L Park- @SF
The price is starting to look fairly absurd for Vogt, and it's all due essentially to performance clustering. Vogt's had something of a quiet stretch, sure, but the man has a .918 OPS against right handed pitching this year for Pete's sake. And Hudson's been generally lousy this year, and his 52 Ks in 96 innings pitched tells you all you need to know about his ability to take advantage of Vogt's free-swinging ways. I love this play for upside, and think Hudson's low K rate means Vogt has a much higher floor than usual - even in a very tough park for hitters.

Brian McCann - FD 3200 DK 4000 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 17
Opponent- Min (Gibson) R Park- @Min
Just if you have a few extra bucks lying around, which you might, if you don't go with one of the super-expensive starters tonight. He still has an .803 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and his 14 homers show you that he has more upside for the position than most. He's facing Kyle Gibson today, who gets by the on the back of his high ground-ball rate more than anything else. While this makes him a slightly better than league average pitcher, McCann's fly-ball tendencies could counter-act Gibson's greatest strengths. I don't like him nearly as much as the above guys, but think McCann could have a nice game.

If he plays, Kyle Schwarber can smash right handed pitching, and Aaron Nola should be very hittable for him. If he's in, I'm happy to grab him for the monster upside in big tournaments.

 

First base

Anthony Rizzo - FD 3400 DK 4900 Victiv 5300 Yahoo
Opponent- Phi (Nola) R Park- @Chc
Rizzo has turned into a fantasy force of nature this season - putting 16 homers in the seats while swiping 13 bags. He's markedly better against right handed pitching over the course of his career, and gets a dream match-up with the green righty Aaron Nola. I think this will be a rough match-up for Nola to skate past.

David Ortiz - FD 3500 DK 4000 Victiv 5400 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Det (Greene) R Park- @Bos
Wrote this about Ortiz last night:

Gonna head back to the old Papi well again for the early slate. Converted reliever and old person Alfredo Simon should have his hands full with Ortiz, who has a .906 OPS and 15 of his 17 homers against righties in 266 plate appearances. Ortiz has also enjoyed a .078 OPS point bump playing in Fenway as compared to other parks during his career. All in all, this is a very solid play.

Today he'll face Shane Greene, who's arguably way worse than Alfredo Simon himself. Great spot to grab some upside.

Carlos Santana - FD 3300 DK 4000 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- CWS (Rodon) L Park- @Cle
For a switch hitter, Santana is a lot better against left handed pitching. His OPS is .050 points higher against left handed pitchers than right, and has walked more than he's struck out against lefties for his career. His 15.3% BB rate against lefties is downright elite, and this happens to be an instance where his greatest strength (his batting eye) is also the opposing pitcher's greatest weakness (Rodon's wildness). Santana doesn't cut the same huge upside profile of the above guys, but this seems like a high-floor play like you read about. Perfect for double-ups and 50/50s.

Also considered: Joey Votto, as a super-elite option against the awful Kyle Kendrick.

 

Second base

Kolten Wong - FD 2900 DK 3900 Victiv 4700 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Atl (Wisler) R Park- @Stl
Let me see that Wong! Baby, that Wong, wa-Wong Wong Wong! Yes, that's right, it's my semi-annual Kolten Wong joke. But I'm pretty serious about playing him. Wong has an .816 OPS against right handed pitching this season, and has been .050 points better than right handed pitchers during his young career. He bats lead-off for the team with the league's highest run differential, and he's facing a righty with a 4.52 xFIP. What more do you need to know? Just play the damned dude.

I'll probably play Wong in all of my contests tomorrow, but I want to give you two other guys I'll consider for different reasons.

Upside:
Neil Walker - FD 3100 DK 3900 Victiv 4900 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Was (Ross) R Park- @Pit
Walker hit 23 home runs last season, making him one of the more power hungry hitters at an otherwise destitute position for power upside. While things have headed in the wrong direction for him this season, his .774 OPS against righties in 2015 is only .025 points off of his career figure. Today he'll face Joe Ross, who FanGraphs has described as a guy who looks like a 3rd or 4th starter some nights, and an 8th inning reliever other nights. They ranked him as the 8th best prospect in the Nationals' system coming into this year, and he just posted a sub 6 K/9 in the minors. All of this is to say, this could definitely be one of those games where Walker catches lightning in a bottle.

Safety
Johnny Giavotella - FD 2200 DK 2900 Victiv 3500 Yahoo 13
Opponent- Tex (Martinez) R Park- @ana
Honestly, I dread writing up Giavotella each night. He sits on the top of our points per dollar projections at the position each night, and I resent it. I resent that he bats first on a team where he should probably bat last. I resent the extra at bats he gets, and how people who don't really understand the math of baseball get to make decisions like batting him first. And then I realize - it's just baseball, dude. Get a life. Anyway, as I've written a zillion times - if he's going to bat in front of Calhoun, Trout, and Pujols, and get the most plate appearances on the Angels, he just isn't a minimum salary guy. He's the clear safety play of the day against the hapless Nick Martinez.

 

Shortstop

Erick Aybar - FD 2500 DK 3100 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Tex (Martinez) R Park- @ana
Simply a sea of super-cheap options you could go with today, but I like Aybar best even if he's a little bit more expensive. He's basically Giovatella, but he gets to bat after the monsters in front of him. I haven't given a detailed case against Nick Martinez yet, either. How rude. He's got the 6th lowest K/9 and the 2nd worst xFIP in the majors (and 2nd worst to Kyle Kendrick, also pitching today), and this should be a bloodbath. I like Aybar for having a really high floor today, and think he's got some upside if he can gather some counting stats. But that will only happen if the guys in front of him only hit doubles or whatever instead of homers.

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 4500 DK 4600 Victiv 5600 Yahoo
Opponent- Cin (Lorenzen) R Park- @Col
It's always weird to go against platoon splits, but Michael Lorenzen is a pitcher you can make an exception for. With a heinous 52 Ks against 42 BBs in 72 IP, the man basically has no idea where the ball's going when he takes the mound. This is a very bad thing to pair with having to face one of the best hitting shortstops of all time in the major league's greatest hitter's park. It's a little pricey for sure, but if you go cheap on pitching, it could look like a great play.

Also considered: Jhonny Peralta.

 

Third base

Evan Longoria - FD 2600 DK 3500 Victiv 4700 Yahoo
Opponent- Bal (Chen) L Park- @TB
While he's sadly not the offensive super-star that he ought to have been, the man can still bruise some left handed pitching, as his .904 OPS against lefties this season suggests. Wei-Yin Chen has been pretty good this season, but it would take an ace to dissuade me from grabbing Longo at these prices against a left handed pitcher. He's all systems go in any format.

Matt Carpenter - FD 2900 DK 4100 Victiv 4800 Yahoo 16
Opponent- Atl (Wisler) R Park- @Stl
Like Wong above, Carpenter has made his living against right handed pitching. Even in a down year for him, he's still got an .866 OPS against right handed pitching. And, call me crazy, but I think Carpenter and his 30% line drive rate (and nearly identical batted ball profile from last year) should be closer to his career BABIP levels at .332 instead of this year's .304 number. If that floats back up, Carpenter's price will look ~15% too low here. I gave you the case against Wisler already - I like Carpenter in all formats, just like Longoria.

Kyle Seager - FD 3000 DK 4200 Victiv 5000 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Sea
I like the above two guys a little bit better, but I'm putting Seager here to let you know that you could certainly justify stacking Mariners against Mark Beuhrle today. Beuhrle has been just about neutral vs. lefties and righties during his career, and has actually been way worse against left handers this season. Beuhrle is also the owner of the 2nd worst K/9 in the majors this season - his 4.49 K/9 means he's really only striking guys out who foul off two balls and then get distracted. I don't mind Seager here at all.

Also considered: Kris Bryant, for upside.

 

Outfield

Mike Trout - FD 5300 DK 5200 Victiv 6100 Yahoo 23
Opponent- Tex (Martinez) R Park- @ana
A man of unfair talents. Even though he's right handed, he's been better over the course of his short but historic career against right handed pitching, and his .995 OPS against righties this season should tell you all you need to know. He's also got 29(???) homers this season to go with 9 steals - meaning he can blast you with upside from any direction. Nick Martinez isn't a major league pitcher, and this is one of the world's great mismatches. If you can pinch your pennies, play the man.

Nelson Cruz - FD 3800 DK 4700 Victiv 5300 Yahoo 18
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Sea
Mark Trumbo - FD 2400 DK 3200 Victiv 4500 Yahoo 14
Opponent- Tor (Buehrle) L Park- @Sea
In 85 plate appearances against lefties this season, Cruz has a 1.200 OPS. He strikes out a lot, it's true, but he's facing a man who strikes out less than a half a guy per inning. The upside here is just ridiculous - arguably as high as Trout's - and the savings you can get here will let you pay up elsewhere while still getting elite production. Trumbo is like Cruz's very reasonably priced and much worse younger brother, but guys like him stay in the majors precisely because they can crush guys like Buehrle. I'll buy it.

Billy Hamilton - FD 3300 DK 4600 Victiv 5100 Yahoo
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
Jay Bruce - FD 4000 DK 5100 Victiv 5500 Yahoo
Opponent- Col (Kendrick) R Park- @Col
I refuse to be priced out of playing these lefties against Kyle Kendrick in Coors. It's yet another reason why I won't be spending up at pitcher today. Bruce has been about .080 points better against right handers during his career, and his ascension has only been held back by his K rate. But, as I wrote, Kendrick just can't strike out a single soul. If you can manage it, it's an all-systems go stack against the Rockies day, and these guys can definitely be a part of any huge upside lineup you put together.

 

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