Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 7/5/15

Hope everyone enjoyed their Fourth of July. Spent mine on an emergency room visit for my kid. USA! USA! Let's get to the picks.

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Pitchers

Danny Salazar - FD 8900 DK 9000
I think the pitching options today are fairly straightforward in that there are three dudes to choose from and you can play each rather confidently. Salazar is the first guy to target and he's having a spectacular season. The last three games have been a little hit or miss, but today's matchup against the Pirates is fine enough. They rank in the middle of the league against righties and strike out about 20% of the time. I know the matchup against Cole limits his win expectation some. But Salazar is a guy striking out close to 11 batters per nine this season with a 3.03 xFIP. He's right in line, from a points per dollar perspective, with the guys below.

Cole Hamels - FD 9800 DK 10600
The Braves rank second to last in the league against lefties this season with a paltry .277 team wOBA in that split and they strike out a ton. They are a very weak lineup top to bottom and have little in the way of power. Hamels can drive you nuts with the walks some times, but he's still a 3:1 K:BB rate with a 3.21 xFIP. The Phillies stink of course which will always cause problems with Hamels getting a win. But from a skills and matchup standpoint, this is a good call.

Lance Lynn - FD 9000 DK 10100
Love what he's done with his K rate this season, ticking it up to over a batter an inning. It's been thanks to finding more confidence in his fastball as he's throwing it more than at any other time in his career. He's also throwing his slider less, but more productively. It's been a solid mix for the guy and he's coming into his own. The Padres rank near the bottom of the league against righties this season, striking out 23% of the time in that split while offering little in the way of lefty power bats to offer any resistance to the righty pitcher.

Strongly consider Mike Bolsinger

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Catchers

Evan Gattis - FD 3400 DK 4200
Pitching isn't going to cost you too much today, so we are going to load up on some bats. Let's start with the Grape. Gattis has been platoon neutral for the most part, but better against lefties for his career and the numbers over the last season are above average even factoring in that he's run into some BABIP issues along the way in this split. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a solid enough pitcher, but I'm buying Gattis on the ballpark for getting the ball in play and his relative success against lefties. And like I said before, I think you can afford to spend up almost across the board today.

Matt Wieters - FD 3000 DK 3800
He's tagged lefties over the last two seasons with a 145 wRC+ and .886 OPS in that platoon. He's been a better hitter in this way and faces Carlos Rodon who, while striking out close to a batter an inning, kills himself with the walks. Rodon is walking more than five batters per nine and Wieters is coming very cheap across the board. Probably more of a cash game play than Gattis, but both have power upside in their respective matchups. I'm really only looking at these two guys today.

Consider Michael McKenry if he gets the start

 

 

First base

Paul Goldschmidt - FD 5200 DK 5600
We don't usually put him in the picks because he's typically wildly overpriced, but that isn't necessarily the case today. Because none of the front line pitchers are going to cost you an arm and a leg you can take a chance on his salary today. Look, I don't need to roll completely through the Goldy superlatives. He's an MVP candidate and just about the best hitter in the league against lefty pitching over the last two seasons. In that platoon he's sporting an other-worldly .412 wOBA and 162 wRC+. Dude just crushes southpaws. He's facing Jorge de la Rosa in Chase Field. If you are taking any cost savings anywhere else in your lineup then this is the bat to try and fit.

Jose Abreu - FD 3700 DK 5000
Adam LaRoche - FD 2500 DK 3500
Like I said yesterday, these guys usually come in a package deal. In fact, here's what I said yesterday amended slightly for today to account for the more advantageous pitching matchup:

They are at home hitting in one of the best power parks in baseball, U.S. Cellular Field. Both hit righties well, Abreu with a .900 OPS and Laroche an .852 over the last two years in that split. Chris Tillman's Bud Norris' been pretty close garbage this year rocking an xFIP close to five with terrible peripherals. Like both of these White Sox at different price points. Both have upside considering the salaries.

Abreu obliged by going yard. Laroche had a couple of hits as well. Thanks fella.

Consider Lucas Duda

 

Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 2900 DK 3800
I'm saying it day after day, but on FanDuel he's one of the best deals around. The price simply hasn't corrected from his early season nightmare, but he's worked out some of the kinks causing him issues in the early going. Namely the power and the BABIP aren't horrendously atrocious in the short term. He faces Chris Bassitt who in a short window this season is walking as many batters as he's striking out. Cano's price is basically awesome all around considering he's still hitting in the middle of the order and really isn't projected to be a below replacement level guy like earlier in the season.

Brian Dozier - FD 3600 DK 4500
Typically in play when a lefty comes to town. Dozier handles this split with ease, posting a 122 wRC+ and close to .800 OPS over the last couple of seasons in this platoon. He's priced moderately but hitting leadoff with the power and speed combination always makes him a bi upside play. With Danny Duffy on the mound, a mid 4's xFIP guy who walks many a batter, Dozier stands to put up numbers today. I like Cano more for the money, if you aren't spending up on pitching getting his salary in isn't a huge deal.

Consider Ben Zobrist in a good matchup or Johnny Giavotella if you want to go real cheap.

 

Shortstop

Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3700 DK 5300
His price has taken a real hit on FanDuel in the short term. The DraftKings price is out of bounds and I won't go there, but man that FD tag is almost too low to pass up. This is still a guy with a mid .800's OPS and .366 wOBA over the last two seasons against right handed pitching. Yes he's better against lefties but there's a price and matchup we can get him into play against righties as well. This is one of them. The ballpark offers big time (non Coors) power upside and Rubby de la Rosa, while putting up decent peripherals, isn't enough to overcome this salary tier for Tulo. Again, I don't advocate a DK play here but with the pitching situation he's the top option on FanDuel.

Wilmer Flores - FD 2300 DK 2900
The Mets insist on hitting him cleanup and while that might be bad for them as a team, it's great for us in DFS. Flores is about league average against righty pitching for his career and while better against lefties for sure, has run a little bad in his vrhp splits so far this season. Most likely destined for a low BABIP based on his batted ball profile, Flores does have power upside and we are always targeting shortstops hitting high in the order.

Consider cheaper options like Marcus Semien and Francisco Lindor

 

Third base

Sometimes I find third base a wasteland. Not today. There are almost too many good guys to mention. I'm going to try and touch on all of them. Hang with me here.

Adrian Beltre - FD 2600 DK 3800
Talked about him yesterday against lefties and much of the same rings true today. He's better in this platoon for his career. And while he's seen some drop-off from all out domination of the split, there's still a lot to like when he plays a southpaw. Over the last couple of seasons his OPS numbers are near .800 with a well-above average wRC+. That might not sound like much, but consider that Beltre is hitting cleanup for the Rangers and priced in the lower tier on both sites. It's that last piece that keeps him very much on the radar. He's coming so very cheap.

Evan Longoria - FD 2800 DK 3900
Like Beltre, there was once a day when if a lefty came on the mound, you were running to put Longo in your lineup. Those days are gone to come degree, but the price has followed suit. Now you are getting a hitter, priced near the bottom hitting third for the Rays and facing a lefty in C.C. Sabathia. Again, like Beltre, this is a price play plain and simple. He's run bad in BABIP against lefties over the last couple of seasons which accounts for some of the troubles. I still have him in play.

Trevor Plouffe - FD 2700 DK 3800
Like I said before, Danny Duffy is prone to a lot of walks, especially to righty bats. That's good news for Plouffe who has some patience against lefty pitching and is above average in that split over the last couple of seasons even while running a little bad in the luck department. All three of these guys are coming in around the same price point and the points per dollar are right in line with each other. I don't mind putting together different lineups with them swapped around for coverage.

Strongly consider Kyle Seager

 

Outfield

Adam Jones - FD 3000 DK 4500
A couple of things are going well for Jones this season. He's cut down on the strikeouts and increased the walks. Both of those are solid trends. Additionally, he's crushing lefty pitching this season with a 166 wRC+ thanks to some patience, power and luck. The last piece isn't enough to fully account for the success and I love the prices on him, especially on FanDuel. I suspect he is one of the highest owned players on that site today.

Mike Trout - FD 5000 DK 5300
Kole Calhoun - FD 2500 DK 4100
Trout's a better hitter against righties for his career and over the last two seasons has been Trout-like with a .944 OPS and nutso .404 wOBA. He's one of the best of course. You don't need me to tell you this. The important part is that if you aren't rostering Goldie, then Trout is the direction to head. Calhoun on the other hand is still a redonkulous (sp?) on FanDuel where he's a punt play hitting in the top two or three of the lineup on a consistent basis. His salary makes a lot of things easier on that site against a pitcher like Colby Lewis in a park like the one in Arlington.

Carlos Gonzalez - FD 3100 DK 4100
Still coming cheap. This is what I said about him yesterday and it stands going in to today's game:

Not hitting in Coors, but Chase Field will have to do. CarGo's been dogged by BABIP struggles this season as that number is about seventy points below his career average. It's accounted for a fair amount of his OPS issues this season. He's actually striking out less and hitting more line drives. I think we are still buying at a discount here. He is far from the superstar in the making we had going a few years ago. But hitting in the middle of the Rockies' order and priced low thanks to some bad luck has him in play against Collmenter de la Rosa.

Consider Yasiel Puig as well as cheaper options like Nolan Reimold and Seth Smith
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