Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 6/21/15

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Pitchers

Note: Check weather prior to game time as Hurricane Bill does threaten some of the East Coast

Jake Arrieta - FD 9500 DK 9600
I don't suspect I'll pay up for Harvey against the no-K Braves or Tanaka against the Tigers. So let's take a look just below those guys at Arrieta. He's striking out more than a batter an inning and rocking a sub 3 xFIP on the season. He faces a Twins squad ranked 24th in team wOBA against righties and the ballpark is a pitcher's haven where flyballs go to die. Arrieta won't often turn in the dominant, double digit strike out performance, but he also rarely gets completely shelled. He's a favorite for the win in this matchup against Kyle Gibson and strikes me as a nice cash game play.

Michael Wacha - FD 8800 DK 9100
What concerns me about Wacha is how much the strikeouts have fallen off this year. He's K-ing more than a batter less this season than last and outside of a 10K performance at Coors (of all places) he's looked rather pedestrian. Thankfully the Phillies are the kind of team made to make opposing pitchers look like aces. They rank dead last in the league against righties and the bottom of the order is one out after another until they hit the pitcher's slot. And then it's another out. I'll forego some of Wacha's K expectation in favor of him getting the win and the dreadful opponent.

Gio Gonzalez - FD 8500 DK 7400
Under no circumstances are you to play him in a cash game. I repeat: he is not safe. But, there's some upside I think for Gio in a tournament against a Pirate team striking out 24% of the time against lefties. Gio's been bitten by a .368 BABIP and his 3.53 xFIP is more than a run lower than his ERA. The Nats play terrible defense so the BABIP will trend higher, but if you want to catch lightening in a bottle, this could be the place.

 

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Catchers

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3200 DK 4400
Ooh baby. If he's not a 100% start in cash games then there is some effective dead money heading into these games from jump street. Lucroy is facing a lefty in Chris Rusin who strikes out less than seven batters per nine, walks more than three and has an xFIP close to four. This is a dream spot for Lucroy at catcher as he hits near the top of the lineup. He'll definitely be in the lineup today after getting a day off yesterday against the righty. I'm hesitant to suggest anyone else on this slate.

Consider Evan Gattis and Salvador Perez but not too strongly. Lucroy is the clear play on this slate.

 

 

First base

There are a lot of solid first base options going today. Tough to choose among this kind of value.

Chris Davis - FD 3200 DK 4700
System loves Crush today though it probably isn't completely factoring in Scott Copeland's extreme groundball tendencies. Now the good news is Copeland doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, Davis' obvious weakness. But the worm burners do kill the power upside to some degree. The ballpark is working in Crush's favor and Copeland isn't necessarily a good pitcher. But keep those grounders in the back of your mind. Otherwise this is an all systems go pick.

David Ortiz - FD 2700 DK 4300
If there is any life left in the bat let's hope we see it against Chris Young today. Young is once again luck boxing his way into a great ERA when the 4.89 xFIP tells a much different tale. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher which works out well for Ortiz's profile in that he stands less of a chance to hit a grounder into the shift (what's killing him this year). Papi appears a deal on this slate.

Adam LaRoche - FD 2300 DK 3300
You know we love targeting the power upside on Laroche. It can be tough playing him day in and out because the skillset is extremely hit or miss. But this is another solid matchup (Gallardo) and again in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball. Coming so very cheap for the upside.

Consider Jose Abreu, Mark Reynolds and Logan Morrison. Told you there was a lot of first base love today.

 

Second base

Robinson Cano - FD 2300 DK 3800
We are well beyond the "it's awkward" thing with Robbie and into the full on, "we should break up" stage. And yet I just can't quit this guy. Look, I know what you are going to say. "He stinks." You wouldn't be incorrect with this statement. And yet I keep looking at some of the underlying numbers and I'm not totally convinced he's cooked. The batted ball profile is much in line with his career numbers. So it's not like he's all of sudden grounding out all over the place. His strikeouts are up for sure and the walks are down. Those aren't great signs. BABIP down some and the ISO's off a cliff. It's that last number that's killing him. At these prices, hitting third in the lineup, you've mitigated most of the risk. He's a punt play now and if another random second baseman popped up and hit third for the Mariners I'd probably be recommending that guy too. That's kind of the way I view Cano at this point. Argh, I promised myself I wouldn't write this much. Cano keeps screwing me even when he's not playing.

Dee Gordon - FD 3100 DK 4800
Not going there on DraftKings where you'll have to pay a premium for a dude who has as much chance at a homer as I do. You are paying for speed here plain and simple. And Dee has it in bunches. He needs to get off to the races. On FanDuel you can take that risk against the righty Lorenzen. Gordon doesn't walk though Lorenzen's profile will put that to the test as he's allowing more than five free passes per nine to go with a plus 5 xFIP.

Consider Adam Rosales on the cheap against the lefty Quintana

 

Shortstop

Jean Segura - FD 3100 DK 4500
You have to pay way up on DraftKings and considering he's not a total power threat, I find it tough to make a strong case for spending that much money on DK. But on FD he's a reasonable price and should be hitting leadoff against the lefty. Note that if he's hitting sixth or seventh I drop him down and out of my lineups. But at the top of the order on the right side of the split he should be in play because the plate appearance expectation goes way up and few other shortstops stand to see more at bat in what should be a high scoring game.

Francisco Lindor - FD 2300 DK 3600
I tend to focus my shortstop plays on really any one of these losers who happens to hit near the top of the lineup and won't cost me an arm and a leg. Lindor fits these wildly low expectations. He's been hitting second in the order and swings at every pitch thrown from the pitcher (approximately). Took walks in the minors but hasn't translated it over to his small sample size major league profile. Whatever. He has some speed and hits in between some solid Indian bats.

Strongly consider Jhonny Peralta

 

Third base

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3200 DK 4200
Like Lucroy, Aramis sat yesterday and should get the start at third today against the lefty Rusin. As I said the other day, Ramirez's price remains low thanks to early season BABIP issues (.224 as of yesterday) and some major run bad. He's a career .920 OPS and 137 wRC+ guy in that split, just generally killing southpaws in his major league tenure. This one's another quasi-no brainer as far as I'm concerned. Right side of the split in the best hitter's park in baseball against a weak lefty.

Look, I'm not trying to cop out here by just recommending one guy. And those who've been with us from the beginning know we don't just blanket pick Coors stacks and call it a day. I like to think we are a little more nuanced. That being said, I just can't make a strong case for anyone besides Aramis. The weather in Denver is hot and sunny tomorrow and he will be in the lineup. You can consider Yangervis Solarte and Joey Gallo?

 

Outfield

Ryan Braun - FD 4800 DK 5300
Because you're getting some savings in other parts of the lineup (including other OF slots), fitting Braun's salary isn't a huge thing today even though you do have to pay. Though if there was one time to spend up for the guy, this is it. He's facing the lefty Rusin in Coors and dude's destroyed lefties for his career with over a 1K OPS (pre and post roid combined). Braun's BABIP has hurt him this season some as it's about 50 points below his career marks (a theme for the 2015 Brew Crew). I'm paying up for him. It's too sweet a matchup in too good a park. Note: If Carlos Gomez plays, roll him too.

Christian Yelich - FD 2800 DK 4300
He's moved up to the third slot in the order and that's where you want to be against Lorenzen. As I said before, Lorenzen is a walk machine who doesn't strike anyone out. This game's going off in one of the better hitter's parks in baseball and Yelich's slot in the order helps him for sure. Hitting in front of Stanton would probably help just about anyone's run expectation and dude's coming rather cheap on FanDuel.

Brandon Moss - FD 3200 DK 4200
I like targeting him against low K pitchers because Moss loves to go down swinging. But he can also take a walk and that .218 ISO is awfully tempting. Colome doesn't dial up the swing and miss stuff to any great degree and has an xFIP in the mid 4's. Moss is coming at a relative bargain considering the skill set and I don't think many others will be on him for this slate.

Joc Pederson - FD 3600 DK 3900
Consider this your friendly reminder that Tim Lincecum still isn't really any good. Dude is only K-ing 7 per nine and his xFIP is 1.2 runs higher than the ERA. Pederson is still a power and speed threat across the board. The DraftKings price is very tempting and I can see him as a staple in my cash games over there.

Consider Seth Smith, Yasiel Puig and Ryan Rua

 

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