Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 6/3/15

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Pitchers

Early
Francisco Liriano - FD 9300 DK 10000
With Tanaka probably on a pitch count, I don't think you can go there for the bigger money. Pitching is odd on this slate, but I think you can take a look at Liriano here. Pitching on this short slate isn't great, but Liriano is putting together a real nice year. He's striking out batters at one of the highest clips in the league, more than 11 per nine. The xFIP sits in the high twos, and if he could just limit the walks some more he'd be elite. The Giants aren't a bad team against lefties, but the ballpark helps Liriano's case.

Consider Phil Hughes and Rubby de la Rosa

Late
James Shields - FD 9300 DK 9400
Shields is having an amazing season and has to already love the move he made to the Padres. He's seen his K's spike this season and is putting down 11.59 batters per nine. That's one of the best marks in the league. He's challenging hitters unlike at any other point in his career. The xFIP sits in the upper two's, about .75 runs off his ERA. Today he's facing the Mets who rank second to last in the league in team wOBA against righty pitching. And the game is going off in Petco. Look, there are a lot of stud arms on this slate. A lot. Pitching is going to make or break you more than usual because one or more of the big guns will turn in a lights out performance. But I love Shields coming priced a notch below some of those other arms.

Jon Lester - FD 9700 DK 9900
He doesn't have as big a strikeout ceiling as some of the other guys on this slate, but Lester does have swing and miss stiff. He's striking out close to a batter an inning and faces a Marlins team whiffing more than 22% of the time against lefties. That gives Lester a little bump and he's pitching in one of the better pitcher's parks in baseball. For those reasons I like his points per dollar expectation more than Kluber or Sale. Look, it's tough fading those two guys and I might end up talking myself into one of them. But the pieces align a little better for Shields and Lester on this slate. And the extra dollars here or there helps you stack Coors Field and some other hitter's parks today.

Consider Cole Hamels

A note on Kluber and Sale. Kluber faces the Royals who aren't strikeout prone at all. And Sale is against a Ranger squad that's tagging lefties and is in a hitter's park. Just wanted you to see a little of the process of why I would consider avoiding them today.

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Catchers

Early
Jonathan Lucroy - FD 2800 DK 3800
This is a very tough slate because many of the pitchers are higher K guys or good-not-great arms. That makes picking both the pitching and the hitting a rough shout. Lucroy faces John Lackey which I don't love. But as I said, it's tough to totally pick on a garbage arm on this slate. Lucroy is much better against lefty pitching for his career, but he's not exactly a dog against righties. Coming back from a DL stint and been running bad before that, the price is way down off where I think it ends up.

Consider Buster Posey against the lefty

Late
Yasmani Grandal - FD 3300 DK 4800
On FanDuel I think he's kind of a no-brainer as fitting the salary even with a big arm isn't that big of a deal. He hit cleanup yesterday evening and I doubt he hits lower than fifth in the order no matter what. Much of Grandal's home run power came in one game, but on the season he's putting up some phenomenal numbers for anyone, especially a catcher. He's walking more than 17% of the time which is fantastic. Chad Bettis is somewhat of a live arm so you aren't getting the usual Rockies' bum on the mound. But Coors still in effect here. I don't think I'm going there on DraftKings though. Too steep.

Wilson Ramos - FD 2700 DK 3600
From a points per dollar standpoint, Ramos is right with Grandal today. He faces Mark Buehrle, who sucks. Ramos is coming much cheaper on a day you want to roster an expensive arm though he doesn't have a ton of pop. But Mark B strikes out less than four and half batters per nine and rocks an xFIP close to five. The Nats' stacks are in play here.

Consider Yan Gomes

First base

Early
David Ortiz - FD 2600 DK 3900
Price on FanDuel is dumb and he's a crazy great buy-low candidate. The ISO's dropped significantly this season, but so has the BABIP. Sure, he's not the same hitter anymore and age might be catching up with Big Papi. But these are still awesome bargains against Phil Hughes who's seen his own dip in production this season. Mainly, the latter isn't striking anyone out. Buy low on Papi.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3500 DK 4900
I should mention that I don't dislike Rubby de la Rosa at all on this slate. Dude's been pitching pretty well this season and has had his share of some bad luck. Butt he price for Freeman on FanDuel is simply too low considering the ballpark. Chase Field is one of the best hitter's parks in all of baseball and Freeman h

as solid power upside in this matchup. His walks are a bit down this year and K's are up. Don't love those trends, but I think getting his salary in EV+ on this slate evens it out.

Late
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 4500 DK 5400
As long as he's hitting in Coors he should be part of the discussion though I do think the DraftKings price is getting a little out of bounds especially considering what you will need to pay for in pitching on this slate. Even with a moderate cooling period after a hot start, Gonzo got right back on the power horse last night by going yard. He's hitting in the middle of the order, on the right side of his split in the thin air of Denver.

Adam LaRoche - FD 2900 DK 4100
I don't care what that sub 3.00 ERA says about Nick Martinez, I still think the dude is below average (or worse). With Jose Abreu out of the lineup Laroche has been hitting third in the lineup and today goes in the Ballpark in Arlington. Laroche is coming super cheap on FanDuel and I'd have him in play on DraftKings as well. He's striking out a ton this season, though that expectation is dimished against low K guy like Martinez. The walks are still there and he's a much better hitter against righties with a career OPS in the mid .800's in that split.

Consider Ryan Zimmerman

 

Second base

Early
Kolten Wong - FD 3200 DK 4000
Hitting in the leadoff spot has plenty of advantages, and is something we've spent a good amount of time talking about this season. Wong's move to the top of the order means significantly more plate appearances over the long term and even on a day-to-day basis means he stands to see an extra trip to the plate or so. Like his price a little more on DraftKings and don't love the position as a whole. He rounds out cash games on a day in which you won't spend top dollar for pitchers.

Consider Robinson Cano but there's increasing evidence he has something wrong

Late
Chase Utley - FD 2600 DK 3600
Much of Utley's issue this year has been concentrated around his crazy low BABIP. That number is starting to tic up a bit as more balls avoid fielders' gloves. He went yard yesterday, and while I don't use that as a barometer for future success, it does make me feel good that he can still do it. Utley has a nice matchup againt Mike Leake today who strikes out less than five batters per nine and has a mid 4's xFIP. He's back to hitting in the top three of the order and much of the rest of his batted ball profile is normal. Think there's great value here at the prices.

Logan Forsythe - FD 2700 DK 3000
He's a total steal on DraftKings where he's one of the cheaper players in the whole pool. Very much in play on FanDuel as well. Forsythe is significantly better against lefty arms for his career with a 122 wRC+ in that split. Hector Santiago is nowhere near as good as the low 2's ERA suggests as the xFIP is more than two runs higher. Forsythe hits near the top of the order against lefties and is in a nice spot on this slate.

Strongly consider Howie Kendrick

 

Shortstop

Early
Oof, shortstop on this slate is about as bad as you'll ever see a position. I'm not kidding. I'm hesitant to even put a player here because all of the options seem horrendous. Whatever you do, don't spend any money here at all. Go for the least money with the highest slot in the batting order. You can think about someone like:

Andrelton Simmons - FD 2400 DK 3700
He's hitting second in the order and has an OPS over .700 this season. Those are about the only two nice things I can say about the guy. I suppose he isn't a complete waste of space. But I don't exactly think there's any real upside.

Late
Ian Desmond - FD 3200 DK 4200
As stated with Ramos, Mark Buehrle is trash and the Nats could put a hurting on the dude today. Desmond lives to strike out as evidenced by his golden sombrero last night. That's his primary issue at the plate. But again, Buehrle doesn't have any real swing and miss stuff so take some of the whiffs off the table for Desmond. Dude's platoon neutral for his career so he doesn't get a crazy lefty-righty bump. But I love him hitting second in the lineup for the extra plate appearance expectation in a game that could feature a fair amount of runs.

Erick Aybar - FD 2700 DK 3600
When you have a shortstop hitting leadoff on the cheap then you have to consider him almost no matter the skill set. Which is good for Aybar because he doesn't have a whole lot of offensive skills. Look, there aren't a whole lot of things I can say about the guy. I don't know why the Angels have him hitting leadoff. But there he is getting to the plate more than anyone else on the team. And there's value in that.

Consider Mike Aviles if he's hitting high in the lineup against the lefty

Third base

Early
Pablo Sandoval - FD 2300 DK 3400
Very much a price play on this early slate. Sandoval is still hitting in and around the middle of the order for the Sox. Though I should probably have written "hitting". It's been a struggle for the Big Fat Panda. I think there's value mostly in his pricing because it's hit lows on both sites. BABIP's been a killer for him as he's about 50 points off his career averages. If that rounds back into shape, you'll see the other numbers trend the right way as many of his other stats look in line. Just needs to limit the ground balls because he obviously can't beat them out.

Consider Trevor Plouffe but Eduardo Rodriguez looked real good in his first start

Late
Justin Turner - FD 2800 DK 4200
If he's playing and hitting in the first five or so slots in the lineup then I think I'm rolling him everywhere on this slate. I just don't love how the rest of the position shakes out. In Turner you're getting a dude who's mashing this season with an OPS close to .900. And while the Hr/FB rate has ticked up, not a whole lot of it looks like luck to me. He's just becoming a better hitter. Gets one more game in Coors and should be in the lineup after sitting out the second half of the double header yesterday. I'm not looking too many other places for third base today.

Consider Evan Longoria and Connor Gillaspie

 

Outfield

Early
Carlos Gomez - FD 3800 DK 4700
Gerardo Parra - FD 2200 DK 3000
For a stack on the short slate, I don't mind these guys going one-two in the Brewer lineup. Again, you really aren't running into garbage arms here, so stacking two dudes at the top of the order against John Lackey who's striking out less than seven batters per nine? We'll take what we can get. Gomez has real power upside and has seen the price drop some over the short term. Meanwhile, Parra is a total punt play who's gotten an opportunity with Khris Davis on the shelf. He's coming as cheap as you can get and considering the slot in the lineup, it's a big advantage.

Consider Matt Holliday and Nick Markakis

Late
Joc Pederson - FD 4100 DK 5100
Um, did you see what he did to the baseball last night? He hit the longest home run in the majors so far. Have you seen what he's been doing to baseballs up until this point? It's ridiculous. Dude has an OPS in the .900's and is very much a three true outcomes guy. The K's are going to be there, but so are the walks and the dongs. It's something to behold as he was on very few radars only a short time ago? Now he's a nightly fixture in DFS. I don't think the price has gone too far on FanDuel and he's still in play for me on DraftKings.

George Springer - FD 3700 DK 4700
Springer profiles a bit like Pederson in that the walks and strikeouts are very much there. He hits for less power but makes up for some of that with the speed. He has 11 steals on the season so far and those extra points here and there really help. Been hitting leadoff which has his plate appearance expectation higher of late and is facing an average arm in Miguel Gonzalez. The ballpark boosts power to righty hitters bumping up the power expectation on the day. It's just those strikeouts. Oof.

Brandon Guyer - FD 2200 DK 3400
Love him as a bargain basement play on both sites today. Guyer's career 120 wRC+ against lefties plays perfectly for these prices. On a day with so many big arms you might need a little salary relief and Guyer offers just that kind of possibility. Hector Santiago will dial up some K's, but he walks a lot of batters too. He is just an average arm that's run hot with ERA. Take advantage of these prices on Guyer.

Adam Eaton - FD 2500 DK 3900
Melky Cabrera - FD 2200 DK 4000
Two other ways to get money in very cheap against a low K arm in a great hitter's ballpark.

 

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