Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/27/15

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Pitchers

Early
Felix Hernandez - FD 11500 DK 12000
Gerrit Cole - FD 10000 DK 10500
Both are coming a little more expensive than I would like, but pitching on this early slate is a little weird and I can't ignore them just because of the higher salaries. Picking between them is very tough though. Their peripherals are nearly identical with the strikeouts per nine both over 9 and the xFIP each in the 2's. They both face bottom third offenses, are going in pitcher's parks though Cole has a better chance at the win because of the Marlin pitching woes. Both make solid options though I am a little concerned about what you have to pay to get them considering their opponents don't strike out a ton.

Noah Syndergaard - FD 7700 DK 7600
His peripherals have been decent in the short time he's been in the majors. Syndergaard is averaging nearly a strikeout an inning and is walking less than three per nine. The xFIP is 4.01 which isn't great, but he's facing the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching in the Phillies. Syndergaard has a solid matchup and should be able to push over 6+ innings in this one with the money line favoring the win.

Consider Mike Leake for cheap mostly because the Rockies are a pretty bad team away from home.

Late
Max Scherzer - FD 11800 DK 11100
He has some monster K potential in this game. The Cubs strike out almost 26% of the time against righty pitching, which is by far the highest in the league. Now, they aren't a bottom-feeding offense by any means, but those K's. Jeez. Scherzer has just insane peripherals this season as he's striking out more than 10 batters per nine and walking only 1.25. The xFIP isn't as good as the sub 2 ERA suggests, but it's going to be hard to match his upside on this slate. It's a short one so you'll need to get pitching right. There are a couple other good options, but Scherzer is the top total points option.

Andrew Cashner - FD 8100 DK 7700
The Angels have been so, so bad against righty pitching this year that you can consider Cashner. The Angels rank third to last in the league in team wOBA in versus righty pitching and Cashner's been a solid arm. He strikes out about a batter an inning and has always limited the walks. If you don't want to spend up to Scherzer, this is the way to go.

 

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Catchers

Early
Brian McCann - FD 3100 DK 4000
His price has come up some in the short term thanks to a little power and some productive games. We aren't getting quite the discount as before but he's still in play today against Chris Young. Young's 0.74 ERA isn't representative of his skill as the xFIP is more than four runs highers. He's been a Babip champ and isn't that good of an arm. Yankee Stadium is so kind to lefties and I like McCann a lot on this early slate.

Yan Gomes - FD 2700 DK 3800
Coming back from injury Gomes has a price firmly in the lower bracket. He's a better hitter against lefties, but has been slightly above average against righties for the last season and change with a 105 wRC+. That's just good enough to get the job done here against Colby Lewis who could get knocked around by the Tribe today.

Late
Yadier Molina - FD 2200 DK 3500
Because Collmenter is one of the worst arms on the slate, you can safely target some of the Cardinal bats today. Molina is fairly platoon neutral for his career and is coming at or near the minimums. He doesn't have much in the way of power anymore, but Molina doesn't strike out much and has a fine enough contact rate.

Consider Wilson Ramos

 

 

First Base

Early
Jose Abreu - FD 3200 DK 4700
I know we write about him a lot, but the price on FanDuel is just getting very silly right now. He might not be the hitter we saw early in the season last year, but this is still a middle of the order bat who can hit for power taking swings in one of the best parks in baseball for home runs. Marco Estrada has strikeout stuff, but is also susceptible to the long ball. Not as in love on DrafTKings, but the park puts him in play there as well.

Joey Votto - FD 3200 DK 4700
Right behind Abreu for me and will make the decision on both sites pretty close. Votto has a great matchup against Kyle Kendrick who is striking out only five batters per nine and walking more than three. Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitter's parks in baseball and Votto will be a tough out for Kendrick today because of the walks he takes. Might like Votto as a slightly safer option than Abreu while the latter has more upside.

Consider Adam Lind

Late
Matt Adams - FD 2400 DK 4200
If you are paying up for Scherzer then you'll need to save in some spots and Adams is a great place to do it. Adams is a high K guy, but Josh Collmenter struggles in that department. I love taking hitters with this profile against lower K guys because their power expectation ticks up some. He's real cheap on FD but is a bit more prohibitive on DraftKings. Update: Adams is out. Consider using Pujols or Freeman.

 

Second base

Early
Robinson Cano - FD 2700 DK 3900
Some mounting evidence that he's getting long in the tooth, but these prices for Cano are a bit ridiculous. He's still hitting in the middle of the order and projects at better numbers than he's being credited for in the short term. Mark my words, this is about as low as you'll see his salaries for the rest of the season. And yes I'm aware the strikeouts are up and walks are down. Even with that in mind these are bargains.

Neil Walker - FD 2700 DK 4200
As of this post it wasn't clear who the Marlins would have on the mound in this game. As long as it isn't a lefty then you can play Walker as an equivalently cheap option to Cano. Not a flashy player, Walker still has hints of power upside. He has an .836 OPS against righties over the last season with a .366 wOBA. A safe play for me.

Consider Daniel Murphy

Late
Howie Kendrick - FD 2900 DK 3500
He's really seen the price drop over the short term as the Dodgers as a whole have struggled with the bats. But Kendrick is steady with the bat over his career as his year-to-year numbers looks strikingly similar. He's facing Alex Wood whose own numbers are way down this season, especially in the strikeout department. Kendrick, hitting in the middle of the order, is coming cheap on the right side of his split.

 

Shortstop

Early
Jose Reyes - FD 3000 DK 3900
Don't love the pitching matchup against the Shark, but Reyes is still sporting a lower salary thanks to a rough early season as he played through injury and then the inevitable DL stint. Now his tags haven't climbed back up to where they should be for a lead-off hitting shortstop with speed. The spot in the order is his biggest value even with the tougher arm on the mound. In this case, the price outweighs (slightly) that other consideration.

Zack Cozart - FD 2200 DK 3500
This is very much assuming he continues to hit lead off for the Reds. If he drops significantly in the order then wipe him off the list. But there is incredible value in getting a shortstop who stands to see a full plate appearance more per game than his competition. Cozart isn't good at like, actually hitting, but that batting order placement baby. That's the story.

Consider Wilmer Flores

Late
Shortstop is awful on the late slate.
Erick Aybar - FD 2700 DK 3600
I know I picked Cashner in the pitching category, but I'm really struggling to see anything of value at this position on this slate. One problem is that there are a bunch of decent pitchers going in a short set. The other is that shortstop, by and large, sucks. Aybar hitting leadoff is about the best case I can make for anyone. Rollins hits leadoff too, but he is brutal for his career against lefties.

Consider Ian Desmond I guess.

Third base

Early
Lonnie Chisenhall - FD 2200 DK 3700
Third base on the early slate is fairly brutal all things considered. Chisenhall is coming at or near punt prices and has been running bad on the season. He has a .218 Babip which is about 70 points off his career average. He's cut down on his strikeouts but the walks have trended down as well. There is a little concern in his batted ball profile as his grounders have ticked up, but I'm buying him mostly on price and that there is little else to love at the position.

Pablo Sandoval - FD 2800 DK 4300
Pretty meh, but again, the position is thin. Sandoval is a big, fat boring hitter and I don't know if I'd pay all the way up on DraftKings. But his sub-$3K salary on FanDuel looks enticing and they did move him up in the order to the third spot.

Consider Aramis Ramirez

Late
Justin Turner - FD 2600 DK 3300
With the aid of some Babip run good, Turner has put up excellent numbers against lefties over the last season plus. He has an .875 OPS and and .383 wOBA over that term. Those numbers, even with some luck thrown in, speak to a guy who is improving in this platoon. Turner is coming cheap which will help with some of the bigger arms and I like targeting righties against Alex Wood.

Consider Yangervis Solarte

 

Outfield

Early
This early slate has a bunch of ways to mix and match upside with boom or bust types.

Curtis Granderson - FD 2700 DK 3800
Michael Cuddyer - FD 2400 DK 3900
Both are above average hitters against righty pitching over the last year and are facing one of the weaker arms on the day in Sean O'Sullivan. Again, my strategy on this early slate will be to mix and match cheaper guys like this who do have some power upside. I don't want to totally rely on any of them because the K potential is there, but they can go yard.

Jay Bruce - FD 2700 DK 4700
No chance I'm paying for him on DraftKings, but on FanDuel he falls in the same category as the two guys above. He has the better ballpark to hit in and has a great matchup against Kyle Kendrick. But he is also very much a strikeout machine and you need to be able to stomach the 0-4's.
A
Carlos Gonzalez - FD 2900 DK 4300
Still coming very cheap and has one of the best ballparks outside of Coors to hit in.

Strongly consider Melky Cabrera because he's cheap and he's always a solid cheap play for me.

Late
Scott Van Slyke - FD 2200 DK 3300
For his career, Van Slyke has been an outstanding hitter against lefty pitching. He has a career .880 OPS, .242 ISO and 148 wRC+ in that platoon. Those numbers are about as good as you'll see for a guy coming at these prices. He is pretty much a must play for me on this slate especially if I am working to get a bigger arm into the lineup.

Matt Kemp - FD 2300 DK 3800
Mostly a price play. He's been striking out like there's a clause in his contract that incentivizes such behavior. But Garrett Richards isn't himself either and the K's have dropped this season. I'm playing Kemp on the idea that the Padres keep him in the middle of the order and his floor is higher because of the price.

Matt Holliday - FD 3200 DK 4100
Mid range price play against a weaker arm in Collmenter. Holliday is fine enough against righty pitching for his career and he doesn't break the bank for you.

Consider Mike Trout if you have enough to spend with the other savings.

 

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