Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings 5/25/15

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Pitchers

Early Slate
Bartolo Colon - FD 7600 DK 7200
Today is a weird day for pitching as there really aren't any ace-type arms going. It's going to mean you can spend a little more on hitting than usual. I don't mind taking Big Fat Bartolo Colon for a couple of reasons. He's facing a terrible Phillies team that ranks second to last in the league against righty pitching with a .278 wOBA. They are a light-hitting bunch and Colon should be able to attack the zone. That's the key to Colon's success, throwing strikes over and over and over. He has an insanely low 0.59 BB/9 rate on season. That helps him last longer in games and makes up for the fact that his K rate isn't through the roof. I'd consider Colon a rather safe play on a day without any top of line pitchers.

Consider: Chase Anderson and Carlos Martinez - Anderson for safety on a points per dollar basis, and Martinez for elite upside.

Late Slate
Brett Anderson - FD 6700 DK 7000
Mr. Anderson is not the ace it sure looked like he'd be earlier in his career, but he's actually sort of having a fine season. He's put up 10 fantasy points or better in each of his last 4 starts, and he had great peripherals in three of those (the bad start coming against Colorado in Coors). In this game he'll get the Braves at home. The Braves have managed just the 27th best wOBA in the majors against left handed pitching this season, and have struck out at the 7th highest rate against them. Throw in the fact that someone named "Williams Perez" is pitching for the Braves as well, and I'll go as far as to say that this is a safe play with great upside.

Tyson Ross - FD 9000 DK 9500
Ross has actually put up 10 or more fantasy points in 8 consecutive starts, and while that's nothing to write home on this price point, it does mean he's a pretty safe and solid cash game option. The Angels have some rather famous hitters, but they've actually put up the league's 3rd worst wOBA against right handed pitching this season. That's awfully bad. I'm not the biggest fan of taking Ross away from home, but Anaheim is a similarly terrible hitter's park, and Ross HAS struck out better than a guy per inning this season. I also like his chances for a win against what's left of Jered Weaver. Could be a good spot.

Consider Jake Odorizzi and Roenis Elias.

 

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Catchers

Early Slate
Brian McCann - FD 2800 DK 4000
Coming real cheap on FanDuel and is in a great spot against Jeremy Guthrie. Yankee Stadium really boosts power for lefties and is one of the best hitter's parks in the league. McCann hits just below the middle of the lineup and is facing Jeremy Guthrie who strikes out 3.42 batters per nine. You really won't see a number lower than that from just about pitcher in the majors. The contact expectation is high for McCann and a bunch of other Yankees.

Evan Gattis - FD 3300 DK 4400
Wei-Yin Chen is a decent pitcher but Gattis is productive in his split against lefties. Over the last season he has an .826 OPS and .355 wOBA in that platoon. Camden Yards is an excellent hitter's park and Gattis's slot in the cleanup spot gives him a higher plate appearance expectation than most other catchers.

Consider Wilson Ramos

Late Slate
Russell Martin - FD 3300 DK 4400
A little dry spell for Martin has him very affordable right now, and probably unjustly. The Blue Jays' catcher has put up 3 FanDuel fantasy points per game this season, which is just phenomenal for a catcher. He's done that on the back of a near .900 OPS on the season, including a very respectable .833 OPS against righties. Noesi, for his part, is back to his old tricks this season, walking 11 while striking out 16 in 17 innings pitched. He's going to get smushed by a fierce Blue Jays lineup, and Martin could play a big role.

 

First base

Early Slate
Joey Votto - FD 3300 DK 4800
Eddie Butler stinks. Like really stinks. He's walked more batters than he's struck out this season, and last season. So it isn't necessarily a bad luck thing. That's going to have him in trouble against a guy like Votto who has walked more than he's struck out against righties over the last season plus. What a nice place to meet on the matchup graph. I'd consider Votto incredibly safe in this matchup with a boost for the ballpark.

David Ortiz - FD 2900 DK 4500
He's still coming at a major discount on FanDuel and is in play on DraftKings as well. The shift has hurt Ortiz with his Babip as a lot of his balls end up in gloves stationed shallow in the outfield. But against Nolasco he's still coming at a nice price against a pitcher who doesn't have overpowering stuff. The power is still there for Papi and his contact rate is still very solid this season.

Consider Matt Adams

Late Slate
Adrian Gonzalez - FD 3900 DK 4600
I just looked at Gonzalez's season line and I had to blush a little bit before turning away. The man is flirting with a 1.1 OPS against northpaws this season, and the match-up here is just ridic. Not only does Williams Perez have a last name where his first name should be, he hasn't struck out better than 8 batters per nine since rookie ball, and was basically called up to the majors as a result of an unsustainable LOB% (87%!) in AAA this year. This should be one of the mismatches of the season, and I'll be delighted to take part.

Edwin Encarnacion - FD 4200 DK 5300
See Russell Martin's write-up for the matchup info. E5 hit another bomb last night bringing his total for the season up to 11. The man can just hit bombs. And while it's not a favorable platoon spot, Encarnacion's split is a lot less dramatic than many sluggers at just .60 OPS points. With Noesi's complete inability to pitch at a major league level taken into the equation, I'd be happy to play Edwin as part of a Blue Jays stack.

Consider Jose Abreu.

 

Second base

Early Slate
Jose Altuve - FD 3800 DK 5100
He's one of the best hitters in the league against lefty pitching. Now he's run extremely hot over the last season with the Babip that's helped him boost those wOBA numbers. The thing that isn't lucky though is how difficult Altuve is to strike out. His 9.6% K rate in that split means he's putting the ball in play a lot as he doesn't take a ton of walks even though that strike zone is minuscule. Wei-Yin Chen is a below average pitcher this season with a 4.45 xFIP though the ERA will throw you off some. I have no issue stacking some Astros in this matchup.

Daniel Murphy - FD 2800 DK 4100
He's a low standard deviation guy which makes him a solid cash game play when he's in the right matchup. Murphy doesn't have a ton of power but he's also not striking out at all this year. His 7.6% rate is one of the lowest in the league. That's a good spot against Severino Gonzalez who has a 3.16 K rate on the season. There are a lot of bad arms going today and Severino is one of them. Murphy's safe-ness and price has him as an intriguing option in 50/50 style games.

Consider Dustin Pedroia.

Late Slate
Neil Walker - FD 2700 DK 4300
Walker is starting to get really cheap for a 29 year old who's a season away from putting together an .831 OPS against right handed pitching. On David Phelps best days, or if you ask his mother, he's a league average pitcher. In reality, the situation is bleaker. He's never put together better than a 4.00 xFIP, and chances are good he'll just be a punching bag before getting relegated to the minors once again.

Consider Robinson Cano. I mean, he just keeps getting cheaper, and he's facing a righty, right? Right?? Our projection system would also tel you to play Howie Kendrick as part of a Dodgers stack, or go for Dee Gordon if you want some insane SB upside in a good platoon spot.

 

Shortstop

Early Slate
Troy Tulowitzki - FD 3900 DK 4600
Mostly think you can roll Tulo today because you will be spending so little on pitching. Not breaking the bank with an arm means spending up at other positions. Tulo is clearly the top option, strictly on a points basis, every day at shortstop. The question becomes whether you can spend up. Today you can in his matchup against Jason Marquis. Great American Ballpark isn't Coors in terms of power, but it isn't too far behind. Tulo's K's are up and BB's are down this season which is a little troubling. But Marquis isn't a huge power arm we'd want to avoid.

Ian Desmond - FD 3100 DK 4500
Big thing for him is hitting second in the lineup. That, in an of itself, is a big boost for any shortstop mostly because the position is so devoid of offensive talent. Desmond is just about average against lefty pitching over the last season. Tsuyoshi Wada is much, much worse for his career against righties, though some of that might be small sample noise.

Consider J.J. Hardy and Xander Bogearts on the cheap.

Late Slate
Brad Miller - FD 2700 DK 3400
James wrote this last night:
I've written it before this season, but Brad Miller is a break-out player that no one has ever heard of. Why? He's just so damned terrible against left handed pitching, and it's seriously depressing an otherwise great line. Against right handers, Miller has put together 5 homers, 3 steals, and an .889 OPS. Shortstops have been MVP candidates with lines not a whole lot better than that. And now we have the chance to grab him against Aaron Sanchez and his 32 walks in 45 innings in a fine hitter's park. I'm as enthusiastic for this as I am about the next season of Orange is the New Black - which is to say - I am pretty freaking excited.

Of course, Sanchez was somehow decent, and Miller was awful. So not ideal. But all the same information still holds against Odorizzi, and it's a shallow position today.

Also considered: Jimmy Rollins.
 

Third base

Early Slate
Mike Moustakas - FD 2800 DK 4400
A big part of Moustakas's succes this season has been him eliminating the strikeouts as part of his profile. He's striking out less than 9% of the time, down from a career average of 16%. That's a massive decline and speaks a lot to his success as his OPS is closing in on .900 for the season. He's been a little lucky, but for the most part this looks like the real deal. He's been hitting high in the lineup and though Eovaldi's been solid this season, the ballpark helps boost Moustakas's power expectation.

Todd Frazier - FD 3700 DK 5100
As stated previously, Eddie Butler blows. Frazier is actually above average over the last year against righty pitching with a 125 wRC+ and .356 wOBA in that split. He's hitting in the middle of the lineup and I can envision some Reds' stacks going off today because of the ballpark and the matchup.

Chase Headley - FD 2500 DK 4000
On the other side of things, Headley is also in a solid matchup against Jeremy Guthrie. As I said with McCann, Guthrie is pretty garbage-y. Headley's been no stud, though some of that is Babip issues. That doesn't tell the whole story and I'm not super high on Headley because he is far from an elite hitter. But he's cheap and has that short porch sitting out there in right to scrape a flyball over.

Consider Lonnie Chisenhall on the super cheap against Phil Klein.

Late Slate
Josh Donaldson - FD 3800 DK 4700
This is our projection system telling you: "Screw platoon splits. Noesi is likely to be that bad. You're welcome."

Kyle Seager - FD 3000 DK 3500
Hey! Here's a Mariner that we recommended yesterday that worked out! In Seager you're getting a guy with 25+ home run power in a favorable platoon split for a price that doesn't reflect that kind of upside. I played him yesterday, and I'll likely play him in some spots again on Monday.

Outfield

Early Slate
Carlos Gonzalez - FD 2900 DK 4600
Should be one of the highest owned plays on FanDuel today where he's coming incredibly cheap. That $2900 price tag won't slip through the cracks on that site. He's been incredibly unlucky this season with a .238 Babip though some of that is thanks to a spike in his groundball rate. That last piece is a bit troubling as the extra groundballs will make it tough for him over the course of the season. Even that being said, these prices are too low.

Brandon Moss - FD 3500 DK 4700
Jay Bruce - FD 2700 DK 4700
They are different price points and matchups, but I think the ideas behind them are the same. They are big time power guys who will strike out a lot. Neither are particularly safe because their points come from one specific outcome. So while their projections are 50% percentiles, they do tend to deviate from their mean quite a bit. But I think you are getting both in solid matchups.

Adam Jones - FD 3100 DK 4800
Delmon Young - FD 2200 DK 3200
Steve Pearce - FD 2800 DK 4300
This is one stacking option you can take today that could pay off. The O's are a righty dominant team facing the lefty Keuchel. The latter is a bit smoke and mirrors from a 1.67 ERA. The xFIP is about a run and a half higher. That still isn't bad, but I think you can get some contrarian upside on stacking these guys in a good ballpark.

Consider Carlos Beltran and Hanley Ramirez.

Late Slate
Jose Bautista - FD 4500 DK 5000
Because Noesi. His utter lack of command and his tendency to leave balls up in the zone (34% ground ball rate!) have me drooling at grabbing Bautista today.

Giancarlo Stanton - FD 4300 DK 5000
You're going to be able to spend up at outfield given the lack of pitching options today, and I'd like you to consider bucking the trends and playing Stanton against a righty. The Marlins' gargantuan right hander has nearly been platoon neutral this season, posting an OPS just .14 points lower against right handed pitching this season. And if his BABIP were anywhere near career norms, he'd be having a heck of a season. Morton isn't horrendous or anything, but knuckle-ballers also tend to normalize opposing platoon splits to some degree (simply because a lot of a pitcher's platoon advantage comes from getting the ball to the plate in a hurry, and that's not what a knuckle-baller is trying to do). Morton only needs to hang one of those for Stanton to pay off and then some today.

Joc Pederson - FD 3700 DK 4400
Alex Guerrero - FD 2600 DK 3200
Williams Perez sweepstakes! Pederson has put up a 1k OPS against right handed pitching this season, and Guerrero's sitting at .962. And I'll go ahead and call Williams Perez a pitcher who is somewhere below the median pitcher that these two have put those totals together against. Great plays in any format, but especially as part of a Dodgers stack in a GPP.

For cheap options consider Melky Cabrera and Matt Kemp.

 

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