Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings 5/13/15

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Golden State Warriors vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

Analysis

The Warrior had the best regular season record for a reason. There’s always a tendency, this writer is guilty of it for sure, to make a prediction based on recent performance. Our projection system doesn’t do this of course, but I understand why it would be easy to watch games two and three of this series and make a judgment about how the rest of the series would unfold. The Warriors had something to say about that. They played awesome in game four, hitting their threes, forcing a bunch of turnovers and basically keeping up an offensive onslaught they’d made their bones on in the regular season. This was exactly the game they needed to play and they evened the series in a “no doubt” kind of performance.

The series now shifts back to Golden State where you can imagine the crowd getting into things early. The Warriors were phenomenal at home this season and it will again be a sea of yellow shirts in the stands. If the Warriors are going to make their threes then the Grizzlies are in massive trouble. They can’t keep the pace scoring wise. If Memphis can take GSW out of rhythm there’s a chance, but like I said at the top: we can fall victim to recent performance. And it’s tough to ignore what the Warriors did in game four.

 

Top Plays

Stephen Curry - FD 10100 DK 10400
He got it going in the second quarter and really didn’t look back. Curry finished with a fantastic 33/8/5 line that made him a top play on the day (non-Bradley Beal team). He heads into this slate as the clear must play again. No other player has the offensive upside. This isn’t news necessarily, but I just don’t know why you would fade him. If he is feeling it from three then it is basically all over.

Marc Gasol - FD 8700 DK 8300
Zach Randolph - FD 7200 DK 7600
I’m playing these two bigs in my lineups whenever I can mostly because they offer the safety you really can’t get anywhere else on this slate. Neither has tremendous upside, but even in a losing effort both were functional. Both posted double-doubles in game four which looks even better considering the Grizzlies had to press the issue late because they were down by so much. If Memphis can hang at all it’s because they are slowing the game down and getting these two the ball inside.

 

Value Plays

Harrison Barnes - FD 4300 DK 4700
We had Barnes as an excellent value play heading into game four and he delivered with a 12/6/1/1 line that would have looked even better had he been able to hit some of his wide open looks from three. Overall though, especially with Speights out of the lineup, the Warriors are committed to getting him big minutes.

Courtney Lee - FD 3800 DK 4800
An off game for Lee in game 4, but he had put up back to back games in the low 20s FanDuel points before that, making him an incredible buy on these prices. The whole of Memphis looked just awful last game, so I'm taking the performance with a grain of salt, and considering Lee quite heavily considering the minutes should still be there.

 

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards

Analysis:

I’m shocked that the Wizards have been this competitive without Wall. To take game three and basically come within a Paul Pierce three from sending game four to overtime, is more than I think anyone thought they would do without their star player. But these are the NBA playoffs and most teams are showing some weaknesses at this point.

With the series tied at two and the games shifting back to Atlanta, I don’t expect much to change here. The Wizards have proven they can stay competitive mostly because the Hawks lack the fire power to pull away. Plus, it appears the Wiz are playing on a mission to prove they can hang without hall. They’ve showed it’s more than possible.

 

Top Plays:

Bradley Beal - FD 7700 DK 8200
I wrote last game that I thought we would see Beal put up more shots in game four and that he was the clear play at shooting guard. This was correct as he jacked up 25 shots on his way to a ridiculous 34/7/6 that made him the top play on the slate. Expect more of the same at least from a volume standpoint. Beal was already a chucker. He becomes even more of one without Wall on the court. That’s ok, the Wiz need it.

Nene Hilario - FD 3800 DK 4500
His minutes appear locked in at slightly above 30 and that’s basically all he needs to become a great value on these slates. He’s been super efficient inside when they can get him the ball down low and from a narrative perspective, he does seem to be playing with more energy. I’m all about the price here especially if he can almost keep pace with Millsap’s production who is coming for much more.

Jeff Teague - FD 6900 DK 7300
We highlighted him as a near must play at point guard two days ago. He went off for 26/8/4. Teague was the main reason the Hawks were able to pull out the victory, even nailing the dagger three near the end. At his price point you can continue playing him safely.

 

Value Plays:

Paul Pierce - FD 4900 DK 5500
Otto Porter - FD 5100 DK 5800
The Washington SFs remain underpriced commodities given the continued increased playing time they are seeing. Porter was phenomenal before disappearing last game, and I am inclined to trust the earlier performance rather than last game's outlier. As for Pierce, he went from "decent value" to "break-out" in the last game, and while some of those shots will drift back Porter's way, I still think you can play both of these guys going forward.

Dennis Schroder - FD 4000 DK 4300
Potentially risky because there's been some variance in the playing time, but Schroder has delighted daily fantasy basketball owners in each of his last games, posting better than 7x points per dollar on these prices. Our projection system figures he's a great play on even 23-25 minutes, so it looks like there's both safety and upside in playing him at these prices as long as the Hawks continue to use him as a disruptive change of pace guy.

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