Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 5/11/15

Ready to make the leap and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks? Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster.

 

Pitcher

Gerrit Cole - FD 9000 DK 8900
The Phillies are the worst offense in the league against righty pitching and it isn't particularly close. They rank dead least with a .256 team wOBA in that split and there isn't a lot of reason for hope with this crew. That's good news if you are rostering Cole today. Cole has been fantastic this season, striking out more than a batter an inning and keeping the walks relatively limited. His xFIP is in the mid 2.00's and he should be considered the top safe option on the bump today.

Jacob deGrom - FD 9200 DK 8100
If you are looking for pure strikeout upside with a decent amount of risk attached, then deGrom is your man. The Cubs strike out a metric ton against righties at a nearly 25% clip. They can hit so buyer beware, but if deGrom gets rolling down hill then you could be looking at some huge K numbers.

CC Sabathia - FD 7300 DK 7800
If you are looking to go a bit more bargain hunting, take a chance on C.C. His ERA is up, but for the second year in a row his xFIP is really outperforming the ERA. There might be something to that as he is having balls hit hard against him. But he limits the walks and his peripherals are decent considering the price. The Rays aren't bottom feeders, but they don't hit for a lot of power and the stadium is a great pitcher's park.

Consider Jeff Samardzija

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal - FD 3000 DK 4400
There are a lot of above average to very good pitchers on this slate so you are going to see plays from a limited number of teams. That's fine as we don't want to get a lot of money in against live arms. Grandal's price has come up thanks in part the best offensive game of the season. But we've been preaching his virtues for some time now. His price is just starting to catch up. Still can play him today against Koehler because the walk rate is about the top for catchers and the OPS is elite. He's running a little hot, but not so much that you are buying on recent performance alone. He makes a nice play and the price isn't all the way there yet considering the matchup.

Salvador Perez - FD 2700 DK 3800
Must have a bet with someone about how few walks he can take on the season. But he also doesn't strike out much meaning he is making contact a solid amount. That's a good profile against a pitcher like Colby Lewis who K's less than seven batters per nine. Perez isn't an elite bat, but the mid .700's OPS plays fine enough for a catcher and the Royals will be in a good spot to put up runs today.

First Base

Jose Abreu - FD 3400 DK 4500
Loving the price on Abreu on both sites and he'll be a staple in all of my lineups. He's knocked his K rate down some so far this season and has a solid contact rate. He ran a little hot last season, and though he's regressed some this season, he's still an elite play on a nightly basis. Love the power potential in Miller Park against Wily Peralta who really struggles to strike out opposing batters. Abreu's price is right on both sites and he offers a ton of power upside.

Mike Napoli - FD 2200 DK 3600
For his career, Napoli is an elite hitter against lefty pitching. He carries in a .914 OPS in that split with a 144 wRC+. He will strike out a bunch so the matchup against Kazmir isn't completely ideal, but his 15% walk rate in that split offers a bit of safety. He is coming cheap for the power expectation and is one guy that could get me to pivot off of Abreu.

Consider Adam Laroche where he's cheaper.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia - FD 2900 DK 3800
Pedroia has a crazy line against lefty pitching this season. His Babip in that split is only .200 and yet he's OPS'ing over .900. That's a dude that can do a lot of damage against lefties and is doing it even while running bad. Of course the sample size is small, but he's shown for his career that this is his dominant split. Kazmir is a high K guy so I'm tempered a bit on Pedroia, but dude is so cheap across the board that you can take the K downside on the upside he provides at his salaries.

Howie Kendrick - FD 3200 DK 3900
Kendrick is platoon neutral for his career so I'm not put off by the righty-righty matchup today. Tom Koehler is well below average on the mound as he doesn't have a huge K rate and sports a career xFIP well in the 4's. Kendrick's spot in the middle of the Dodger order definitely helps boost some of his point-scoring expectation and his price has come down a bit in the short term.

Consider Neil Walker

 

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins - FD 2700 DK 3700
Coming cheap all things considered on this slate and his spot in the batting order makes him almost worth it on that alone. Rollins has seen the Babip climb some in the short term, a number that had been dragging down his overall numbers. That being said, he's still been running bad in the aggregate. He isn't an elite hitter by any means but the lack of luck in the batted ball department has also driven down his steal numbers because he can't get on base. As the balls drop in, look for his price to rise. You are still getting him very much at a discount and in a solid pitching matchup.

Marcus Semien - FD 2900 DK 3900
Like Rollins, Semien gets a big bump at a weak position because the A's hit him so high in the lineup. He's been moving between leadoff and the two whole for a bit now. That's an enormous lift over other guys at the position. Semien has run a little hot, but he's also been swiping bags and has just enough of a power expectation that playing him on most slates in weaker matchups is a solid move. Rick Porcello is a fine enough pitcher, but not enough to diminish Semien relative to the field.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre - FD 2700 DK 4400
Facing a lefty and coming at a massive discount compared to his career platoon splits against southpaws. Beltre crushed lefty pitching last season with a 170 wRC+ and .984 OPS. He's close to a must-start for me on FanDuel while it's a little closer on DraftKings. At $2700 on FD you are getting so much upside at very little risk when it comes to price. He's simply too good against lefties to come this cheap.

Josh Harrison - FD 2300 DK 3900
I want to believe that a majority of his struggles this season are Babip-related. He's never going to be a dude who draws tons of walks, so he is going to rely on the balls falling in. But they haven't been as his .198 Babip is just dreadful. He's still hitting leadoff against Jerome Williams who doesn't strike anyone out. These are great prices to grab Harrison and the position is thin as a whole.

 

 

Outfield

Values are a little different depending on site today. Will give some universal plays and then some site-specific ones.

Carlos Beltran - FD 2300 DK 3500
Finally hit his first home run of the season yesterday though we've had him as a buy for some time in our system. He isn't the Beltran of old for sure and has been dropped in the lineup some. But he's coming in around the minimums and that is much too low. Hitting the home run at least serves to prove that he can still do it. I'm slotting him into all formats today in order to save for some more expensive pitchers.

FanDuel
Andrew McCutchen - FD 3800 DK 5300
Even against the righty he's coming at a nice discount on FanDuel. McCutchen's struggled some this year as he's seen his LD% and BB% drop from his career averages. There's some speculation he's dealing with an injury that's hurting his contact rate. And it would serve to explain some of his Babip issues. But he's still a solid buy on FD as he falls well below the other elite OF's in price. I'm buying at this price as long as he's playing against below average arms.

Jay Bruce - FD 2800 DK 4500
Shelby Miller has looked a little better of late, but he's a flyball pitcher who works up in the zone. That can lead to some opponents taking him deep. I like Bruce's price in bigger tournaments but he strikes out too much to be considered safe.

DraftKings
Josh Reddick - FD 3800 DK 3700
He's walking more than he's striking out and is just generally killing it since coming off the DL. This DraftKings price is about as no-brainer as it gets considering the matchup.

Consider Nick Markakis and Melky Cabrera
Be sure to try out a free 3-day trial to the projection system that helps produce these picks for the MLB! And check out our free MLB ebook below.