Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftster 4/17/15

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer - FD 11000 DK 11700 DFSTR 11200
Recommended him against the Phillies only a few days ago and while he pitched decently he ended up with a no decision that sort of negated his value considering the price. No mind, I'm right back on him today. While the season is of course still very young, the Phillies are falling right into line with what you'd expect from them offensively. That is to say: they suck. Ranked at second to last in the league against righties, Philly is striking out 23% of the time with a team OPS of ,563 in that split. Scherzer is a stud with fantastic peripherals. He is such a solid cash game play even at the steep price.

Corey Kluber - FD 10700 DK 9800 DFSTR 9800
He's back to his old strikeout tricks, K-ing 17 in his first 13.2 innings pitched. That should continue today against the Twins, who are terrible. They rank last in the league against righty pitching, are striking out 24% of the time and OPSing something awful. There's some bad luck sprinkled in there but this is a team that will struggle on offense all season long. To boot the game is in Minnesota where power is really depressed. At their respective prices I have Kluber and Scherzer about tied in terms of points per dollar.

Jimmy Nelson - FD 6800 DK 6600 DFSTR 6300
He was nails in his first start against the Pirates and is back facing them again today. Nelson struck out nine over seven innings while only issuing two walks. He's not that good for sure, so I am not exactly expecting a repeat performance. But the matchup is decent considering the Pirates have struggled out of the gate with the bats. They are striking out 26% of the time and their team OPS is among the worst in the league. Some of that is Babip related so I don't expect them to cellar dwell all season. Good pitcher's park though and Nelson is a nice bargain.

Consider Ubaldo Jimenez if you think his first start indicates he's all of sudden fixed. But he probably isn't.

Early slate
Give me James Shields all day long here.

SportsTradex Tier A Plays are Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer

Really any time he's on pitching you need to seriously consider using him. The price can get a bit out of bounds

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy - FD 3500 DK 3900 DFSTR 6600
Jeff Locke is not a good pitcher and has such a struggle striking batters out. Lucroy hasn't completely broken it out of the box in the early season which has kept his price in check. That's a good spot to buy him in the short term. This is a guy who OPS'd well over .800 against lefties last season and has been successful in this split over his career. The price and matchup are enough for me to overlook the ballpark.

Dioner Navarro - FD 2600 DK 3600 DFSTR 3100
He doesn't have the best matchup against Teheran, but it evens out a bit considering he's a very cheap catcher hitting in one of the better offenses in the league. Has pulled some time at DH. Doesn't play everday, so check lineups closer to lock, but if he's hitting in the top 7 then you are getting a solid price on the guy.

Brian McCann - FD 3200 DK 3700 DFSTR 5900
The Babip woes continue for this guy. Didn't think he could outdo his .231 BABIP from last season but he's proving me wrong by coming out of the gate with a paltry (and enormously unlucky) .211. That's doesn't seem like it's sustainable even with shifting and whatnot. I refuse to believe this is a sub .700 OPS hitter. It just can't be true.

First Base

David Ortiz - FD 3700 DK 4700 DFSTR 6700
Our system just isn't buying Ubaldo's first start. Like not buying it at all. Dude has spent the last couple of years walking everything in sight. Pitched great against the Blue Jays, but I'm willing to start Big Papi today. Ortiz had a .364 wOBA against righty pitching last season and Camden Yards is one of the best power parks for lefty hitting in all of baseball. Oh, and Jimenez gives up a lot of flyballs.

Freddie Freeman - FD 3500 DK 4700 DFSTR 6500
Freddie teed off on righty pitching last season with an OPS close to .900 on the season. The walks are down in the early season and the K's are up, but the sample size is so small as to be insignificant. The Rogers Centre has broken many a hitter out of a power slump considering balls fly out of the ballpark in a hurry. Drew Hutchison has some strikeout stuff, but also gives up a ton of flyballs which is a problem considering the home park.

Consider Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison and Ike Davis as your cheaper options.

 

Second Base

Robinson Cano - FD 3900 DK 4000 DFSTR 6700
It won't be easy to spend up for him if you are going to go after a big money arm, but I like the matchup for Cano. Yovani Gallardo's xFIP is much better than his ERA in the early going, so don't think about that too much. Rather, consider that the K's are running hot and Cano is a dude who mashes righty pitching. Is still coming at a decent price considering his skill set and the lack of real solid options at the position.

Dustin Pedroia - FD 3400 DK 4500 DFSTR 6700
Like I said with Ortiz, system hate Ubaldo. Pedroia is much better against lefty pitching for his career, but hit righties well enough. He's coming in the middle tier of pricing which means he won't break the bank for you at all and this could be a game the Red Sox put some runs on the board.

After these two guys I'd be looking to go as cheap as possible with minimum-priced guys like Aaron Hill, Jedd Gyorko and Alberto Callaspo

Shortstop

Erick Aybar - FD 3000 DK 3700 DFSTR 5500
This is contingent on him still hitting leadoff for the Angels. If you can get an affordable SS who isn't a travesty with the bat hitting in the number one spot in a lineup then you are getting a fantastic cash game play. Aybar has no power of course and really doesn't do anything on offense particularly well. But the prospect of an extra at bat (in front of Trout) has a lot of value.

Yunel Escobar - FD 3000 DK 3400 DFSTR 4700
Another guy who will find himself near the top of the lineup on the right days. Like Aybar, he is not offensive dynamo, but he's been taking walks in the early going here and limiting the strikeouts. If he's committed to getting on base in this position then you could see his price climb some more in the short term. Was a min priced guy not too long ago, but he is still coming at a solid price.

Consider Mike Aviles if he's still starting

Third Base

Adrian Beltre - FD 3500 DK 4100 DFSTR 6800
Will lead off this position almost every time he's facing a lefty pitcher. J.A. Happ is platoon neutral from the mound over the course of his career, but the real story here is Beltre, a guy who posted a .984 OPS against southpaws last season to go with a .421 wOBA. This is a career trend for the guy as he's consistently hammered this side of his split. Don't love the ballpark for boosting power which is the only thing that keeps Beltre from a near must-play at these prices.

Josh Harrison - FD 3100 DK 4100 DFSTR 6300
He's had trouble getting it going in the early season but I'm not overly concerned. Some of it is early-season Babip trouble as that number is nearly .100 points off his career average. The Babip did him solid last season against righties as it helped him post an OPS over .800 in that split. The truth is somewhere in the middle. He is a guy batting leadoff and today faces Jimmy Nelson who has K stuff, but gets wild as well. Also, play SportsTradex just to get Harrison in your Tier D.

Aramis Ramirez - FD 3000 DK 3600 DFSTR 6000
It's a close call between these three guys today as our system has them in a veritable log jam where their prices are similar. Aramis faces lefty Jeff Locke which is good for Mr. Ramirez. Last season Aramis posted a ridiculous .440 wOBA and 182 WRC+ against lefties. Those were among the best in the league and it's always a favorable split for him.

Consider Yangervis Solarte and Lonnie Chisenhallas cheaper options

 

Outfield

Mookie Betts - FD 3100 DK 4900 DFSTR 7200
Our system has adored Mookie from jumps street and we've been kindly rewarded by some nice games. He's hitting leadoff in a high-powered offense against a pitcher who (except for his first game of this season) has been super bad over the last couple of years. Fenway isn't great for right home run power, but it's about the best in the league for righty double power. That is just one of the many reasons our system is pulling on Betts today.

Carl Crawford - FD 2900 DK 4000 DFSTR 6100
He's started off real slow mostly thanks to striking out every single at bat (or that's what it seems like). Crawford might be past his prime, but he's hitting second for this team and I don't think that stands to change. I also think the strikeout rate will begin to normalize as the season goes on which means we are buying him today at a discount.

Khris Davis - FD 2600 DK 3900 DFSTR 5800
I'm focused more on cheaper bats today because I think you pretty much have to pay for pitching with this many power arms taking the bump. Davis is an above average hitter against lefty pitching for his career and hits around the middle of the order for the Brewers. The OPS was close to .800 against southpaws last season which looks a lot better when you consider his prices.

Sam Fuld - FD 3100 DK 3800 DFSTR 6500
He's locked into the leadoff spot for the A's and is making the most of it. Babip has been a contributing factor, but he also hasn't been striking out at all. That's a good spot when you are facing Jeremy Guthrie who's never been particularly interested in refining the art of the K. Setting the table for the A's makes up a bit for his lack of power.

Consider Kole Calhoun if he is back from injury tonight as well as Carlos Beltran and Shane Victorino
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For SportsTradex, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are your Tier B plays for sure. While Mookie Betts and Jayson Werth are your Tier C top options.

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